20230714-广州期货-_每周经济观察_美国通胀回落提振市场情绪_国内贸易及通胀数据不及预期_22页_2mb

报告摘要

The report emphasizes that the U.S. inflation decline bolstered market sentiment and led to a reduction in expected interest rate hikes, while China's June trade and inflation data fell short of expectations.
Market Performance: Equity and commodity markets rebounded during the week, with interest-rate-sensitive bonds showing narrow fluctuations.

Exports and Imports: In June, exports fell sharply to -124% YoY from -75%, imports to -68% YoY from -45%, both below market forecasts. Export decline is linked to high last-year comparisons and reduced accumulated orders, with declines observed in key markets like the EU and US, and in goods such as machinery and consumer items. Imports suggest domestic demand is insufficient.
PMI and Related Indicators: New export orders PMI continues to drop, aligning with declining export growth, indicating slowing global demand. No significant changes noted in import patterns that offset these issues.

Prices: June CPI reached 0% YoY, with core CPI down, indicating persistent low demand and inflation pressures easing. PPI declined to -5.4% YoY, reflecting weak industrial demand. Food prices moderated, but core services like housing and transportation saw mixed results.
Financials: Credit and broad money supply (M2) data exceeded expectations, but the credit environment remains weak, with high savings inclination and subdued investment. Social financing growth was supported by government bonds but hampered by slower issuance. The economy faces ongoing structural funding challenges.

Inflation Trends: U.S. June CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, lifting market confidence and reducing bets on future rate increases. Core CPI decline, however, shows risks persist.
Policy Outlook: Market odds suggest 1-2 more rate hikes this year could be avoided next, with a higher chance of keeping rates elevated until next year due to lingering uncertainties in inflation and employment.

Key risks include unexpected worsening of global economic slowdown, geopolitical shifts, and slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery in China.

Policies such as the "financial support for real estate" extension and central reform meetings are highlighted but pose cautious outlooks. Upcoming events include China's economic data releases and U.S./EU inflation indicators.

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