2017奢侈品和化妆品行业财务概况（英文版）_80页_4mb

Summary of The Luxury and Cosmetics Financial Factbook 2017 Edition

Core Content

The 2017 edition of EY's Luxury and Cosmetics Financial Factbook provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving luxury and cosmetics industries, focusing on market trends, financial performance, and M&A dynamics. The report highlights the shift in consumer behavior, the impact of digital transformation, and the strategic moves by companies to adapt and grow in a competitive landscape.

Main Trends and Insights

Market Dynamics

• The luxury market is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the "mix and match" trend among consumers.
• The premium and entry-to-luxury segments are showing higher growth potential compared to the traditional high-end luxury segment.
• Expected CAGR for the premium and entry-to-luxury segments is 6% (2016–20E), while high-end luxury is expected to grow at 3%–4%.
• Shoes are the fastest-growing category in high-end luxury, projected to reach 11% growth by 2020, while bags growth is slowing.
• Accessories continue to be a key driver of growth in both high-end and premium/entry-to-luxury segments.

Consumer Behavior

• Millennials are leading the shift towards a mix-and-match approach, buying selectively from high-end specialists and combining with more accessible products.
• Chinese consumers represent over 30% of the luxury market despite the country accounting for less than 10% of the total market.
• Online influence is increasing, with 60% of purchases being digitally influenced along the value chain.
• E-commerce is growing at over 20% annually and is becoming a major channel for cosmetics sales, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

Regional and Market Analysis

• Mainland China and India are seeing the rise of an urban middle class, expected to grow to 1.1 billion people in the next 15 years.
• Europe and the US remain the largest luxury markets, with the US at €131 billion and Europe at €109 billion in 2016.
• The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 37% of the total cosmetics market.

M&A Landscape

• The M&A market remains active, with a booming number of deals in 2016 and 2017.
• Average deal size is decreasing, with more interest in middle-market companies and specific product categories (e.g., bags, accessories).
• Financial sponsors now account for almost half of the transactions, particularly in the fashion sector.
• YOOX NET-A-PORTER (YNAP) is highlighted as the leader in sales growth expectations.
• Emerging markets are expected to drive 56% of the growth in the personal luxury goods segment over the next five years.

Financial Parameters

DCF and Valuation Parameters

• Market capitalization of luxury companies increased by 17% on average compared to the previous year, with LVMH reaching nearly €100 billion.
• The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) ranges from 7.0% (Chow Tai Fook) to 9.2% (Ralph Lauren), influenced by geographic exposure and gearing.
• Average indebtedness is 1.2%, with most companies being debt-free.
• The long-term growth rate (LTGR) is 2.7% in 2017, consistent with the previous year.

Sales Growth, EBITDA Margin, and Capex Ratio

• The expected average sales CAGR for luxury companies is 5.2% (2016–2019).
• EBITDA margin is expected to increase for most companies, with Swatch and Coach projecting significant gains.
• Capex ratio is decreasing, with a shift towards digital investments and a reduction in traditional retail expansion.

Cosmetics Market Financials

• Cosmetics market capitalization increased by 18% on average compared to 2016.
• The average WACC for cosmetics companies is slightly higher than for luxury companies, with Natura as a clear outlier.
• Average gearing is 6.8%, with some companies showing higher levels.
• Average EBITDA margin is 16.8%, slightly lower than luxury due to higher advertising spend.
• Capex ratio is around 4%, with minimal retail development investment.

Trading and Transaction Multiples

• Luxury market multiples are rebounding in 2017, with a rise in EV/sales and EV/EBITDA ratios.
• The average EV/EBITDA multiple for the luxury sector in 2017 is 12.2x, with high-end luxury companies showing a 13.6x multiple if included alone.
• The average EV/sales multiple for the luxury sector in 2013–2017 is 2.7x, and the EV/EBITDA multiple is 11.9x.
• Transaction multiples are also rising, with a focus on high-growth segments and digital-first companies.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

• Companies must secure supply and embrace digital transformation to remain competitive.
• Customer centricity is critical, with a demand for innovative and customized services.
• The premium and entry-to-luxury segments present significant consolidation opportunities, with 65%–80% of market share potentially available for acquisition.
• Italy has a strong industrial footprint in the premium and entry-to-luxury segments, with a focus on small and medium enterprises.

EY Insights and Index Evolution

• The EY Luxury and Cosmetics Index has outperformed the market, with a total return of 110% over eight years and 32% in the last 12 months.
• LVMH and Kering led the growth in the luxury sector, while L'Oréal and Shiseido were standout performers in cosmetics.
• The index is compared to S&P 500 and STOXX Europe 600, showing strong performance over time.

Conclusion

The luxury and cosmetics industries are facing a disruptive transformation due to changing consumer preferences, digital integration, and strategic M&A activities. The focus is shifting towards premium and entry-to-luxury segments, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years. Companies must adapt to digital trends, optimize retail strategies, and embrace innovation to maintain their competitive edge.