2025-06-13-Jefferies-洞察_月度美容数据矩阵；网络数据仍为负；彩妆网络表现优于其他_17页_1mb

Jefferies Beauty & Personal Care Equity Research - June 12, 2025

Key Summary Points

Market Overview & Key Trends June 2025

• Monthly Beauty Data Matrix Update: Highlights the performance of the cosmetics, household, and personal care sectors for June 2025, assessing web traffic, social engagement, and earned media value (EMV).
• Web Traffic Performance: Web traffic remains a key metric, with color category showing slight positive growth (+1%) overall, while Skin, Hair, Fragrance, and Facial Skin categories face declines. Overall web traffic across all categories is slightly negative, although there are positive deviations within each category compared to May 2025.
• Social Media Performance: Social growth is retreating in most sectors (category social performance is negative overall, with color and fragrance seeing a positive turn in May 2025). Engagement remains mixed for retailers like Sally Beauty and Walgreens.

Top Performers & Highlights

• Sally Beauty: Leads in the T3Mo and T1Mo retailer indices, demonstrating strong May performance.
• NTCO: Shows resilience and innovation focus, poised for growth despite market headwinds.
• Oral Roberts University (OR FP): Inconsistent retailer performance, heavy reliance on digital channels, innovation focus signs, valuation based on transformation potential but risks remain.
• Color Category: Displays slightweb positive growth (+1%) overall. OR FP - retail performance inconsistent. U.S. Markets: U.S. investors should note our perspective on The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL: currently HOLD) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA: currently HOLD).
• Specialty Retail: Trends on display, with Sally Beauty's performance tied to its salon-style approach and direct-to-consumer expansion. Other retailers face digital pressures.

Risks & Challenges

• Promotional Pressures: Increased discounting expected to sustain demand, particularly targeting lower-price consumers.
• Channel Shift: Uncertainty surrounds the extent of slowdown in the FDM channel versus shifts towards e-commerce platforms managed by Beauty-Only Retailers like Sally Beauty, which the report highlights as a key performer. Holding analyst certifications.
• Tariff Mitigation: Concerns about pricing power needed to offset supply chain impacts, particularly relevant for companies managing FDNCA-related tariff adjustments.
• Retailer Dynamics: Performance of traditional beauty retailers like Ulta and Sally Beauty is closely monitored; shift toward CDM/Beauty Only appears incomplete but significant.

Investment Outlook

• High-End Resilience: Emphasis on continued strength in beauty spending for premium brands.
• Innovation Focus: Companies with strong product R&D and differentiation are expected to outperform.
• Market Sensitivity: Concern around promotional dependency and channel headwinds. Pricing power is debated as a differentiating factor for acceptability.
• Overall Footwear: Net positives and negatives balance out across the sector, requiring careful monitoring.

**Disclaimer:** This summary is based on the provided report excerpt and focuses on the interpretation of the market data and tones highlighted within it, interpreting the data in the context of the report's content. All investment decisions should be made based on comprehensive analysis and consultation with financial professionals. This summary is not an investment recommendation.