20151209-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE2015-12-9_13页_2mb

Summary of Market Analysis

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, focusing on key indices, individual stocks, sector performance, valuations, and related financial indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities. It also includes information on today's top stock picks, short-selling trends, and the performance of the most traded ETFs.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Indices Performance

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Close: 21,905
  • Daily change: -1.3%
  • Year-to-date (YTD) change: -7.2%

• HSCEI (Hong Kong China Enterprises Index):

  • Close: 9,661
  • Daily change: -1.4%
  • YTD change: -19.4%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • Close: 3,470
  • Daily change: -1.9%
  • YTD change: +7.3%

• Shenzhen Composite:

  • Close: 2,221
  • Daily change: -1.8%
  • YTD change: +57.0%

Market Trends

• The HSI has fallen below its 50-day moving average.
• The HSCEI is seeking its lows.

Stock in Focus

• Bloomage BioTechnology (963.HK):

  • Entry: HK$18.20

  • Target: HK$21.80

  • Stop-loss: HK$17.40

  • YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 48.4%/18.8%/53.0%/78.9%

  • Market Cap: HK$6.66bn

  • 3M Average Daily Volume: 0.62mn shares

  • FY1 Forward P/E: 26.3x

  • Reason for Buy: Expected to benefit from rising demand in the beauty industry due to its position as the largest manufacturer of hyaluronic acid (HA) and its R&D strengths.

  • R&D Spending: 3% of net revenue, higher than peers.

  • Key Event: Acquired a 33.4% stake in Vivacy, a French HA injection brand, expected to contribute to profits by late 2016.

Today's Top Picks

1. Travelsky Tech (696.HK):

   • Last Close: HK$13.92
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$16.70
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$13.00
   • Reason: Expected to test previous highs due to rising passenger volume.

2. Runway Global (1520.HK):

   • Last Close: HK$1.91
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$2.21
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$1.81
   • Reason: Share price rose with increasing turnover, expected to climb further.

Sector Performance

• Best Performing Sectors:

  • HK Consumer Group: +2.2%
  • Dairy: +0.0%
  • Airline: +0.3%
  • HK Telecoms: -0.2%
  • REITs: -0.4%
  • Medical: -0.5%
  • Telecoms Equipment: -0.6%
  • Handset and related accessories: -0.7%
  • Infrastructure: -0.8%
  • Marine: -0.8%
  • Chinese Banks: -0.8%
  • Local Property: -0.8%
  • Consumer Staples: -0.9%
  • Chinese Telecoms: -1.0%
  • Durable Consumables: -1.0%

• Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors:

  • HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
  • Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
  • Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
  • HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
  • REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (277)
  • Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
  • Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
  • Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
  • Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
  • Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
  • Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
  • Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
  • Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
  • Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
  • Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)

Valuations and Forward P/E

• Hang Seng Index:

  • FY15E P/E: 11.0
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 11.3
  • Deviation from average: -2.6%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -12.2%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +5.0%

• HSCEI:

  • FY15E P/E: 7.3
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 8.5
  • Deviation from average: -14.0%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -2.1%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +3.8%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • FY15E P/E: 14.9
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 11.0
  • Deviation from average: +34.8%
  • FY1 EPS growth: +22.4%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +10.5%

• S&P 500:

  • FY15E P/E: 17.5
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 14.7
  • Deviation from average: +18.6%
  • FY1 EPS growth: +5.6%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +9.0%

Market Data

• Best Performers:

  • GOLDIN FINANCIAL (530.HK): +43.3%
  • GOLDIN PROPERTY (283.HK): +30.0%
  • CHINA PUBLIC PRO (1094.HK): +11.5%
  • TRAVELSKY TECH-H (696.HK): +4.7%
  • ZHONGSHENG GROUP (881.HK): +4.2%

• Worst Performers:

  • CRTG (269.HK): -21.1%
  • POLYTEC ASSET HO (208.HK): -11.0%
  • TIAN LUN GAS (1600.HK): -7.0%
  • YINGDE GASES GRP (2168.HK): -6.3%
  • CITIC RESOURCES (1205.HK): -6.1%

• HSCI Volume Filter:

  • PICC P&C-H (2328.HK): High volume increase, FY1 P/E: 10.0
  • SHANGHAI ELECT-H (2727.HK): High volume increase, FY1 P/E: 22.5
  • TIAN LUN GAS (1600.HK): High volume increase, FY1 P/E: 14.2
  • YINGDE GASES GRP (2168.HK): High volume increase, FY1 P/E: 6.4
  • GOLDIN FINANCIAL (530.HK): High volume increase, FY1 P/E: N/A

• Most Short Sold Stocks:

  • OZNER WATER (2014.HK): -0.5%, 3.1m HK$ shortsell turnover
  • SUN ART RETAIL (6808.HK): -1.3%, 18.5m HK$ shortsell turnover
  • SHANGRI-LA ASIA (69.HK): +0.1%, 15.2m HK$ shortsell turnover
  • TSINGTAO BREW-H (168.HK): -0.4%, 28.4m HK$ shortsell turnover
  • MINGFA GROUP INT (846.HK): +0.5%, 0.4m HK$ shortsell turnover
  • CITIC RESOURCES (1205.HK): -6.1%, 24.0m HK$ shortsell turnover

External Market Conditions

• Weak Chinese trade data raised concerns about a global economic slowdown.
• Oil prices declined, affecting materials and energy shares.
• U.S. equities closed lower, with Dow down 162 points, S&P 500 down 13 points, and NASDAQ down 3 points.
• ADR prices fell, effectively putting HSI down 212 points.
• New York crude oil futures closed at US$37.51/bbl, down US$0.14.
• New York gold futures settled at US$1,075.3/oz, up US$0.1.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.9330%, -0.15 bps
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.2253%, +4.56 bps
  • U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.9580%, +4.99 bps
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2264%, +3.50 bps
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3867%, +1.33 bps
  • SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.7000%, 0.00 bps
  • SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.0510%, +0.80 bps

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD Dollar Index: 98.4740, -1.3%
  • USD/HKD: 7.7503, 0.0%
  • EUR/USD: 1.0884, +2.5%
  • USD/JPY: 122.98, +0.2%
  • GBP/USD: 1.5006, +0.4%
  • USD/CHF: 0.9939, +2.5%
  • AUD/USD: 0.7226, -1.1%
  • NZD/USD: 0.6634, -0.1%
  • USD/CAD: 1.3583, -1.8%
  • USD/CNY: 6.4175, -0.3%
  • USD/CNH: 6.4887, -0.6%

• Precious Metals and Commodities:

  • CRB Index: 177.4, -3.8%
  • Comex Gold: US$1,074.5/oz, +2.0%
  • Comex Silver: US$14.095/oz, +0.8%
  • Nymex WTI Crude: US$38.14/bbl, -4.5%
  • ICE Brent Crude: US$40.26/bbl, -9.4%
  • LME Copper: HK$4,588.00, -0.9%
  • LME Aluminum: HK$1,477.00, +0.5%
  • CBT Wheat: US$481.50, +2.1%
  • CBT Corn: US$373.50, -0.1%
  • CBT Soybean: US$876.75, -1.4%

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): A-share price: 34.53, Premium: 669.4%
• CITIC BANK-H (998.HK): A-share price: 7.46, Premium: 82.4%
• SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033.HK): A-share price: 8.31, Premium: 377.9%
• SHANGHAI ELECT-H (2727.HK): A-share price: 13.59, Premium: 14.2
• CHINA SHIPPING-H (1138.HK): A-share price: 11.08, Premium: 143.7%
• ICBC-H (1398.HK): A-share price: 4.62, Premium: 20.5%
• ZTE-H (763.HK): A-share price: 17.50, Premium: 22.4%
• CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): A-share price: 17.77, Premium: 6.0%
• PING AN-H (2318.HK): A-share price: 34.42, Premium: -4.0%
• ANHUI CONH-H (914.HK): A-share price: 16.57, Premium: -6.7%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• 2800: TRACKER FUND HK, Price: 22.10, 1D chg: -1.78, 5D chg: -2.21
• 2828: HS H-SHARE ETF-H, Price: 98.65, 1D chg: -1.55, 5D chg: -2.90
• 2823: ISHARES FTSE A50, Price: 10.92, 1D chg: -1.62, 5D chg: -1.09
• 2822: CSOP FTSE CH-HKD, Price: 12.60, 1D chg: -1.25, 5D chg: 0.96
• 3188: CHINAAMC 300-HKD, Price: 43.85, 1D chg: N/A, 5D chg: N/A

Conclusion

The document outlines a variety of market conditions and trends, emphasizing the potential for growth in sectors such as medical beauty and the impact of global economic factors on local markets. It highlights specific stocks and ETFs with potential for price increases and provides detailed valuation metrics and short-selling data. Overall, it serves as a guide for investors looking to capitalize on current market dynamics.