2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Croatia_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_69页_3mb

2018 Article IV Consultation Summary: Republic of Croatia

Core Content

The Republic of Croatia underwent a 2018 Article IV consultation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February 2019. The consultation focused on macroeconomic developments, fiscal and structural reforms, and the country's path toward joining the Euro Area. The IMF's Executive Board welcomed Croatia's continued economic recovery and acknowledged the progress in fiscal consolidation, while emphasizing the need for further reforms to enhance growth and stability.

Main Economic Developments

• Growth: Croatia maintained positive economic growth in 2018, driven by strong private consumption and exports. Real GDP growth was 2.7 percent, with a projected moderate decline in the coming years.
• Inflation: Inflation remained benign, averaging 1.5 percent in 2018, primarily due to higher energy prices.
• Employment: The unemployment rate dropped from 12.5 to 9.4 percent, but labor shortages persisted due to continued migration and aging population.
• Fiscal Performance: Croatia achieved a fiscal surplus in 2017, the first since independence. In 2018, the surplus was 0.4 percent of GDP, though public spending increased and contingent liabilities reduced the surplus.
• Public Debt: Public debt was projected to fall below 75 percent of GDP in 2018, with a long-term target of reducing it further.
• Current Account: The current account is expected to decline but remain in surplus.
• Reserves: Official reserves increased to 17.4 billion euros by the end of 2018, helping to reduce appreciation pressures.
• Banking Sector: The banking system is liquid and well-capitalized, with NPL ratios gradually decreasing. However, credit to the non-financial corporate sector (NFCS) remained subdued due to the lingering effects of the Agrokor bankruptcy.

Key Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation slowed in 2018, with the government targeting a deficit of -0.4 percent of GDP for 2019, though the IMF expects a balanced budget.
• The focus is on rebuilding fiscal space and improving medium-term growth prospects.
• Public investment remains below programmed levels, and efforts to improve the quality of expenditure and target social benefits to the most vulnerable are crucial.
• The government has committed to fiscal discipline, and the IMF encourages further structural reforms to improve revenue and expenditure efficiency.

B. Structural Reforms

• The IMF called for more ambitious reforms to make the state more dynamic and efficient.
• Key areas include public service reform, reducing red tape, improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, and enhancing judicial and legal processes.
• Labor market regulations need to be reformed to increase participation of the young and women and promote on-the-job training.
• Reducing the informal economy and broadening the tax base are also emphasized.

C. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• Monetary policy has remained accommodative within the exchange rate anchor, with low interest rates and ample liquidity.
• The CNB is expected to continue accumulating reserves as Croatia moves toward ERM-II.
• The IMF urged the authorities to consider additional measures to prevent excessive household borrowing and to improve bankruptcy legislation to align with international standards.

Main Views and Recommendations

• The IMF emphasized the need to improve the business environment by reducing administrative and tax burdens.
• It recommended a comprehensive review of the insolvency framework to ensure it aligns with international best practices.
• Croatia is targeting ERM II entry in 2020, joining the Banking Union, and eventually the Euro Area.
• The benefits of joining the eurozone are seen as significant and long-term, with the costs being relatively small and one-time.
• The country needs to maintain strong external buffers and ensure macroeconomic stability to withstand potential shocks.

Risks and Outlook

• Domestic Risks: Continued emigration, low labor utilization, and productivity growth are expected to weigh on growth potential.
• External Risks: Protectionism, higher interest rates, and slower Eurozone growth pose potential threats.
• Inflation: Projected to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the next five years due to trends in trading partners, VAT reduction, and lower energy prices.
• Debt: Public and private corporate debt remain high and subject to currency and interest rate risks.

Summary of Economic Indicators (2014–2018)

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledged Croatia's economic progress and fiscal discipline, while urging continued structural reforms, improved public investment, and stronger fiscal consolidation to ensure long-term stability and growth. The country is on track to meet its convergence program goals, but further efforts are needed to address persistent vulnerabilities and improve the business environment.