2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Croatia_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_75页_2mb

IMF Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Croatia (2017)

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2017 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Croatia on January 10, 2018. The consultation assessed Croatia's economic developments, policies, and outlook, with a focus on fiscal and structural reforms, monetary policy, and financial sector stability.

Croatia had entered its third year of positive economic growth in 2017, driven by strong tourism and private consumption, as well as improved confidence and trade partner growth. The economy was operating close to its potential, with a small fiscal surplus expected for 2017 and a projected small surplus starting in 2019. The current account remained in surplus, and the external environment was favorable.

Despite the economic recovery, vulnerabilities persisted, including high public and external debt levels, and the full impact of the Agrokor crisis was still uncertain. The Agrokor restructuring, which had led to significant losses for banks, was expected to have a limited effect on the economy, though risks remained.

The IMF emphasized the need for structural reforms to enhance productivity, reduce the wage bill, and improve the business environment. The goal was to support long-term growth and reduce the risks associated with joining the Euro Area.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth: Expected to decelerate over the medium term, with 2017 growth at 3.1% and a convergence to 2% by 2022.
• Unemployment: Remains high (11.6% in October 2017) and is largely structural.
• Inflation: Moderate, with CPI inflation at 1.1% in 2017 and expected to rise slightly but remain low.
• Current Account: Strong surplus, projected at 3.7% of GDP in 2017, but expected to decline as exports and tourism growth slows.
• Risks: The balance of risks improved, but vulnerabilities remain significant. Downside risks include the Agrokor restructuring and potential exchange rate volatility. Upside risks include improved trade conditions and increased confidence.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Position: Croatia exited the European Union's Excessive Deficit Procedure in June 2017. The 2017 general government deficit was projected at 0.6% of GDP, well below the budget target of 1.6%.
• Debt Reduction: Public debt is expected to fall to around 65% of GDP by 2022. The IMF recommended additional fiscal savings of 1.5% of GDP over 2018–2022 to achieve this.
• Fiscal Measures: The IMF supported reforms to improve the structure of revenue and expenditure, including a modern real estate tax, streamlining VAT rates, and better targeting of social benefits.

Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• Monetary Conditions: Domestic monetary conditions remained accommodative, with ample liquidity and modest money market rates.
• Banking Sector: Banks have strengthened their financial positions, with a well-capitalized and liquid system. The NPL-to-loan ratio has been declining, although it remains high.
• Exchange Rate: Moderate upward pressures on the kuna continued in 2017, and the Croatian National Bank (CNB) accumulated international reserves.
• CNB Policies: The CNB's conservative prudential policies and supervision helped banks withstand the Agrokor crisis, and the IMF encouraged maintaining this stance.

Structural Reforms

• Priority Areas: Structural reforms are essential to support long-term growth and reduce vulnerabilities. These include improving the business environment, streamlining public administration, enhancing labor market flexibility, and reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• Corporate Governance: The IMF encouraged the authorities to build on recent improvements in bankruptcy legislation and address remaining gaps in corporate governance.
• Productivity and Efficiency: Reforms to improve the efficiency of public services and SOEs were recommended, along with measures to enhance property rights and the legal process.

Key Reforms and Initiatives

• Real Estate Tax: A modern real estate tax could generate additional revenue and reduce income taxes.
• Social Benefits: Better targeting and monitoring of social benefits were recommended, including the introduction of a one-stop shop.
• Wage Bill: Reducing the wage bill by 0.5% of GDP through performance-based compensation and streamlining public administration.
• Healthcare and Pension Reforms: These were highlighted as critical to reducing contingent liabilities and improving efficiency.

Documents Included in the Consultation

• Press Release: Summarizing the IMF Executive Board's views.
• Staff Report: Detailed analysis of economic developments and policies.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Highlighting key findings and recommendations.
• Informational Annex: Additional details and analysis prepared by the IMF staff.
• Selected Economic Indicators: Tables showing GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and debt levels from 2012 to 2018.
• Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Projected economic developments and policy implications.

Conclusion

The IMF concluded that Croatia's economy was on a positive trajectory, supported by strong tourism and private consumption. However, structural reforms and fiscal measures were needed to ensure sustainable growth and reduce vulnerabilities. The next Article IV consultation was expected to follow the standard 12-month cycle.