2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Albania_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_84页_3mb

IMF 2018 Article IV Consultation with Albania Summary

Core Content

The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2018 Article IV Consultation with Albania on January 23, 2019, following discussions with Albanian officials from November 6–20, 2018. The consultation focused on macroeconomic and structural reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability, macroeconomic stability, and sustainable growth.

Main Economic Developments

• Economic Growth: Albania experienced strong GDP growth, estimated at 4.2% in 2018, with a projected stabilization at 4% over the medium term. The growth was driven by exports (especially tourism) and infrastructure investments.
• Inflation: Inflation remained below the 3% target, at 1.8% in November 2018, due to exchange rate appreciation. It is expected to gradually rise to meet the target by 2021.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit stabilized at around 2% of GDP in 2018, with a modest reduction in public debt (from ~70% of GDP to ~68.6%).
• Eurobond Issuance: In October 2018, Albania successfully issued a €500 million Eurobond at a favorable rate of 3.50%.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit narrowed to ~6.3% of GDP in 2018, supported by increased electricity exports and strong service exports.
• Exchange Rate: The exchange rate appreciated sharply by over 6% against the euro in March–June 2018, contributing to inflation control.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): The NPL ratio was reduced to ~13%, but credit to businesses remained weak.

Main Views and Recommendations

Fiscal Policy

• The Executive Directors encouraged further fiscal consolidation to build stronger buffers, including revenue enhancement and debt reduction.
• They supported the goal of a simple, predictable tax system and emphasized broadening the tax base while avoiding ad-hoc measures.
• Public debt remains high, and reliance on foreign financing is a concern. PPPs should be managed to contain fiscal risks.
• Government arrears need to be addressed, as they hinder private economic activity and undermine public sector trust.

Monetary Policy

• The accommodative monetary stance is deemed appropriate until inflation is on track to reach its target.
• Interest rate cuts (to 1% in June 2018) and foreign exchange interventions were used to prevent disorderly market conditions.
• Monetary transmission to the real economy is delayed due to structural bottlenecks, which require government and central bank action.

Financial Sector

• Financial sector reforms are needed to restore private credit growth and improve intermediation.
• NPL resolution should be accelerated, and AML/CFT frameworks should be strengthened.
• EU-owned banks are deleveraging, while domestic banks are struggling to support business investments.

Structural Reforms

• Rule of law and judicial reforms are key to improving the business climate.
• Corruption reduction and enhancing public services are emphasized.
• Infrastructure and labor skill gaps must be addressed to benefit from regional integration.
• Power sector restructuring and governance improvements are highlighted as priority areas.

Risks and Outlook

• Medium-term risks are downward-leaning, driven by European growth slowdowns, foreign financing costs, and domestic vulnerabilities.
• Current account deficit is expected to narrow further to ~6% of GDP, supported by energy projects and tourism growth.
• Reserve coverage remains robust at ~6.5 months of imports in 2018, providing a buffer against external shocks.
• Exchange rate flexibility is crucial for inflation stability, and interventions should be temporary.

Key Indicators

Conclusion

The IMF recommended a balanced approach combining fiscal consolidation, monetary accommodation, and structural reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. The next Article IV Consultation is expected to follow the standard 12-month cycle. The Executive Directors acknowledged the positive developments and emphasized the importance of completing ongoing reforms to enhance resilience and foster long-term growth.