2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Belarus_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Fourth_Post_57页_1mb

Summary of the 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with the Republic of Belarus

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV consultation and fourth post-program monitoring (PPM) discussions with the Republic of Belarus, held in Minsk from March 14 to 25, 2013, focused on addressing structural deficiencies that were hindering growth and increasing the economy's vulnerability to crises. The discussions were led by a team from the IMF, including Hofman (head), Hartley, Saksonovs, Bibolov, Garcia, McHugh, Prader, and Misyukovets. The mission engaged with officials, think tanks, businesses, and the diplomatic community to assess economic developments and policy priorities.

The report highlights the following key issues:

• Structural Deficiencies: Belarus remains one of the least reformed countries in the CIS, with a heavily centralized economy dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which account for over half of GDP and two-thirds of employment. Administrative price controls and quantitative targets for SOEs distort resource allocation and reduce productivity.
• Economic Volatility: Following the 2011 crisis, the economy stabilized initially, but inconsistent policies in 2012 led to renewed volatility and high inflation.
• Exchange Rate and Inflation Pressures: The exchange rate appreciated in early 2013, but with a 14 percent real appreciation in 2012, there is a risk of overvaluation. Inflation in December 2013 stood at 21.8 percent, slightly below the 22 percent target.
• Fiscal Challenges: The government achieved a 0.7 percent surplus in 2012, but the budget definition excludes quasi-fiscal operations and contingent liabilities from directed lending. Large wage increases in 2012 and 2013 risk overheating the economy and reducing competitiveness.
• Banking Sector Risks: The banking sector faces vulnerabilities due to high levels of foreign currency (FX) lending and non-performing loans (NPLs). The Development Bank (DB), created in 2011, is becoming a key channel for directed lending, which could undermine financial sector reforms.
• Structural Reforms: The need for comprehensive reforms to improve resource allocation, competitiveness, and the functioning of the market economy was emphasized. These reforms are seen as essential for long-term growth and stability.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Reduce Directed Lending: The staff recommended reducing directed lending and related interest rate subsidies to improve fiscal sustainability and economic efficiency.
• Limit Wage Increases: Wage increases should be controlled to align with inflation targets and not exceed productivity gains.
• Maintain Exchange Rate Flexibility: A flexible exchange rate is necessary to absorb external shocks and reduce imbalances. Intervention should be limited to preventing excessive volatility.
• Tighten Liquidity Conditions: The NBRB should tighten liquidity through higher reserve requirements and administrative measures, while being prepared to raise policy rates if needed.
• Implement Structural Reforms: Comprehensive structural reforms are needed to boost potential growth, enhance competitiveness, and improve the efficiency of the financial system.

Outlook and Risks

• Fragile Outlook: The economic outlook is fragile, with the authorities aiming for an 8.5 percent GDP growth target in 2013. However, this may lead to a repeat of the stop-go policy pattern of 2012.
• Inflation and Exchange Rate Risks: The risk of inflation remaining above the target is significant, especially with the recent loosening of monetary policy. The exchange rate is at risk of overvaluation due to the real appreciation in 2012.
• External Vulnerabilities: The current account is expected to deteriorate, and reserves are projected to fall to US$6.9 billion by the end of 2013, equivalent to less than 1.5 months of imports.
• Banking Sector Risks: The rapid growth of FX lending and the potential for households to access FX loans pose prudential risks. The DB’s role in directing lending may further complicate the reform process.

Main Views and Disagreements

• Fiscal Policy: The authorities emphasized their commitment to a balanced budget and viewed directed lending as a key component of their social protection and development strategies. However, the staff argued that such lending creates contingent liabilities and should be phased out.
• Monetary Policy: The NBRB and government disagreed on the appropriate response to inflation. While the NBRB planned a cautious approach and did not see the need for tightening, the government believed that delaying administrative price increases could help control inflation.
• Structural Reforms: Both the authorities and the staff agreed on the necessity of structural reforms, but there were divergences on the pace and scope of these reforms.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while Belarus has made some progress in stabilizing its economy, structural reforms and consistent fiscal and monetary policies are essential for long-term growth and stability. The staff recommended a comprehensive reform agenda, including the phasing out of directed lending, wage moderation, and the adoption of an inflation targeting framework. The government, while supportive of these goals, remains committed to maintaining a flexible exchange rate and continuing its directed lending programs. The outlook remains uncertain, with significant risks of inflation, external imbalances, and banking sector instability.