2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Kazakhstan_2015_Article_IV_Consultation_79页_1mb

2015 Article IV Consultation Summary: Republic of Kazakhstan

Core Content

The 2015 Article IV Consultation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic developments and policies in the context of significant external shocks, including lower oil prices, regional economic slowdowns, and exchange rate fluctuations. The consultation aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of current policies and recommend measures to ensure macroeconomic stability, financial sector resilience, and sustainable growth.

Main Viewpoints

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Growth Deceleration: Real GDP growth slowed to 2% in 2015, down from 4% in 2014 and 6% in 2013. The slowdown was driven by weaker external demand, lower oil prices, and confidence effects.
• Inflation Trends: Headline inflation dropped from 7.4% year-on-year at end-2014 to 3.9% at end-June 2015, below the authorities' target range of 6–8%.
• Fiscal Situation: The fiscal surplus fell from 5% of GDP in 2013 to 1.7% in 2014, while the non-oil fiscal deficit increased to 9.6% of GDP. The overall fiscal balance turned negative in 2015, and government debt rose to 14.5% of GDP.
• Exchange Rate: The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated due to the ruble's depreciation and the U.S. dollar's appreciation. The NBK widened the exchange rate band to 170–198 tenge/dollar in July 2015.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: The IMF emphasized the need for credible medium-term fiscal consolidation, especially on the revenue side, to ensure fiscal sustainability. Recommendations included improving tax collection, reducing tax exemptions, and making income tax more progressive.
• Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy: Greater exchange rate flexibility and the introduction of a new policy interest rate instrument are needed to enhance the policy architecture and manage external shocks effectively.
• Financial Sector Resilience: Continued efforts to reduce non-performing loans (NPLs) are essential, along with macroprudential measures to limit credit risk and improve bank stability.
• Structural Reforms: The authorities should continue their structural reform program, focusing on human capital development, institutional strengthening, and reducing the state's role in the economy. The WTO accession in 2015 is expected to boost investor confidence.

Key Information

Economic Indicators (2012–2020)

Key Policy Measures

• Fiscal Policy: The authorities implemented a stimulus package ("Nulrly Zhulu") to support growth, but this has led to increased fiscal deficits and debt. The IMF urged more transparent fiscal frameworks and medium-term consolidation.
• Monetary Policy: The NBK introduced new monetary instruments, including overnight currency swaps and repo operations, to stabilize interest rates and manage exchange rate pressures.
• Financial Sector Reforms: NPLs were reduced significantly, but more work is needed to bring them to sustainable levels. The NBK started bottom-up stress tests and is working on cross-border supervision with other jurisdictions.
• Structural Reforms: The "100 steps" reform program, focusing on decentralization and the rule of law, was initiated post-elections in 2015. The country also joined the WTO, enhancing its integration into the global economy.

Conclusion

The IMF's Executive Board endorsed the staff appraisal, highlighting the need for balanced policies that ensure sustainability while addressing near-term challenges. It emphasized the importance of enhancing fiscal transparency, increasing exchange rate flexibility, and strengthening financial sector resilience to support long-term economic growth and stability. The consultation also underscored the need for continued structural reforms to foster a more dynamic and inclusive economy.