2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Albania_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_90页_2mb

Summary of the 2017 Article IV Consultation with Albania

Core Content

The 2017 Article IV Consultation with Albania, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), concluded on December 4, 2017, following discussions from September 20 to October 3, 2017. The consultation assessed Albania's economic performance, outlook, and policy priorities, with the aim of supporting macroeconomic stability, financial sector resilience, and structural reforms to enhance growth and competitiveness.

Key Economic Developments

• Growth: Albania's economy continued to strengthen, with real GDP growth reaching 3.4% in 2016 and accelerating to 4% in 2017:Q2. Growth is expected to remain strong, reaching 3.9% in 2017 and 4% in 2018.
• Inflation: Inflation rose to just under 2% in 2017, driven by the declining output gap and higher external inflation. Core inflation remains low at 0.8%.
• Current Account: The current account deficit narrowed to 7.6% of GDP in 2016, and is projected to remain at 8.0% of GDP in 2017 before gradually narrowing.
• Reserves: Official foreign reserves reached six months of imports coverage in September 2017, and are expected to grow in line with increased external borrowing, then decline as the de-euroization strategy progresses.
• Credit Growth: Overall credit growth has remained stagnant, with banks focusing on cleaning up balance sheets. Private credit growth has been weak, but public investment is expanding.

Policy Priorities

A. Fiscal Policy

• Objective: Maintain fiscal discipline, reduce public debt to below 60% of GDP by 2021, and achieve a more efficient and growth-friendly budget.
• Key Actions:
  • Continue revenue-based fiscal adjustment.
  • Strengthen tax administration and implement a value-based property tax.
  • Improve public investment management and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
  • Address arrears and enhance public financial management, particularly for local governments.

B. Monetary Policy

• Objective: Strengthen inflation targeting and maintain macroeconomic stability.
• Key Actions:
  • Continue accommodative monetary policy, with monetary easing unwinding only if inflation shows sustained upward momentum.
  • Implement the de-euroization strategy.
  • Amend the Central Bank Law to enhance its independence.

C. Financial Sector Policy

• Objective: Ensure financial stability and improve supervision.
• Key Actions:
  • Implement the non-performing loan (NPL) resolution strategy.
  • Enhance supervision of systemic and rapidly expanding banks.
  • Strengthen crisis preparedness in the non-banking financial sector.
  • Address the risks from a potential abrupt exit of foreign banks.

D. Structural Reforms

• Objective: Improve the investment climate and boost labor participation.
• Key Actions:
  • Deepen reforms in the judiciary, property rights, and anti-corruption.
  • Enhance the business environment.
  • Invest in vocational training to increase youth and female labor participation.
  • Continue reforms in the electricity sector to improve efficiency and reduce arrears.

Risks and Outlook

• Medium-term Outlook: Remains favorable, with GDP growth projected at 4% in 2018, driven by domestic demand, EU recovery, and structural reforms.
• Inflation: Expected to gradually increase toward the 3% target by end-2018.
• Current Account: Projected to narrow to 6–7% of GDP in the medium term due to energy project wind-down and export diversification.
• Risks:
  • On the upside: Improved political stability, donor support from EU accession, and spillover effects from large FDI projects could boost investment and credit recovery.
  • On the downside: Global growth shocks, volatile domestic politics, and continued drought could affect growth and reform implementation. A sudden exit of foreign banks could also destabilize the domestic financial system.

Executive Board Assessment

• The Executive Board emphasized the importance of maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability while deepening structural reforms.
• It supported a more ambitious and front-loaded fiscal consolidation path, improved tax administration, and the strengthening of fiscal institutions.
• The Board recommended enhancing public investment management, aligning the Central Bank Law with modern standards, and improving the VAT refund process to reduce arrears.
• It also stressed the need for institutional reforms to improve the business climate, reduce informality, and enhance financial market depth.

Fiscal and Debt Indicators (2013–2017)

Conclusion

The IMF concluded that Albania has made progress in reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities, but significant challenges remain, particularly in public debt management, financial sector stability, and structural reforms. The new government's mandate and the favorable economic outlook present an opportunity to accelerate reform efforts. The Board urged continued fiscal discipline, improved tax collection, and institutional reforms to support sustainable growth and financial resilience.