20150313-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of financial performance and outlook for various companies and markets across Asia, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes results, updates, key financial metrics, and valuation recommendations for specific companies.

Key Companies and Their Performance

Xstep International Holdings (1368 HK)

2014 Performance: Sales improved by 10% due to footwear, but net profit fell by 21.1% year-over-year (YoY) due to higher advertising costs and taxes.
Dividend Yield: Increased to 7.4% in 2014, with a full-year payout ratio of 60%.
Gross Margin: Rose to 40.8% in 2014, driven by higher footwear sales.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD with a target price of HK$2.71.
Target Price: HK$2.71 (upside of +3.9%).
Entry Price: HK$2.30.
Market Cap: HK$5,684.8 million.
Dividend Payments: Declined by 19.4% YoY in 2014.
Key Financials:
- Net Turnover (Rmbm): 4,777.6 (2014), 5,068.0 (2015F), 5,465.4 (2016F)
- Net Profit (Rmbm): 486.0 (2014), 520.6 (2015F), 563.6 (2016F)
- EPS (fen): 22.3 (2014), 23.9 (2015F), 25.9 (2016F)
- PE (x): 9.4 (2014), 8.8 (2015F), 8.1 (2016F)
- P/B (x): 1.0 (2014), 0.9 (2015F), 0.9 (2016F)
- EV/EBITDA (x): 3.2 (2014), 3.3 (2015F), 3.0 (2016F)
- Net Margin (%): 10.2 (2014), 10.3 (2015F), 10.3 (2016F)
- ROE (%): 10.6 (2014), 10.8 (2015F), 11.2 (2016F)

China Power New Energy (735 HK)

2014 Forecast: Expected a 3% YoY decrease in earnings due to power grid curtailment and poor wind resources.
2015 Outlook: Anticipated significant improvement due to capacity expansion, higher utilisation hours, and potential tariff increases.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$1.00 (down 13% from previous).
Market Cap: HK$5,499.2 million.
Key Financials:
- Net Turnover (Rmbm): 2,870 (2014F), 4,856 (2015F), 7,918 (2016F)
- EBITDA: 1,442 (2014F), 2,715 (2015F), 3,186 (2016F)
- Operating Profit: 925 (2014F), 2,040 (2015F), 2,255 (2016F)
- Net Profit (Rmbm): 249 (2014F), 615 (2015F), 979 (2016F)
- EPS (fen): 2.0 (2014F), 4.4 (2015F), 6.4 (2016F)
- PE (x): 18.7 (2014F), 8.6 (2015F), 5.8 (2016F)
- P/B (x): 0.6 (2014F), 0.5 (2015F), 0.5 (2016F)
- EV/EBITDA (x): 12.9 (2014F), 6.9 (2015F), 5.9 (2016F)
- ROE (%): 3.2 (2014F), 6.3 (2015F), 9.6 (2016F)
- Dividend Yield (%): 0.5 (2014F), 1.1 (2015F), 1.7 (2016F)

Key Markets and Indices

Market Indices (1D, 1W, 1M, YTD)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17895.2	1.5	-1.3	-0.4	0.4
S&P 500	2066.0	1.3	-1.7	-1.1	0.3
FTSE 100	6761.1	0.6	-2.9	-1.0	3.0
AS30	5816.0	0.9	-1.0	-0.3	7.9
CSI 300	3592.8	1.9	2.8	3.5	1.7
FSSTI	3373.6	-0.1	-0.6	-1.5	0.3
HSCEI	11565.8	1.3	-0.3	-3.0	-3.5
HSI	23798.0	0.3	-1.6	-3.6	0.8
JCI	5439.8	0.4	-0.2	1.2	4.1
KLCI	1786.9	0.5	-1.1	-0.8	1.5
KOSPI	1970.6	-0.5	-1.4	0.7	2.9
Nikkei 225	18991.1	1.4	1.3	6.0	8.8
SET	1544.3	0.0	-0.6	-4.4	3.1
TWSE	9596.0	0.8	0.0	0.7	3.1
BDI	560	-0.9	-0.2	3.7	-28.4
CPO (RM/mt)	2251	0.5	-4.7	-1.3	-2.0
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	47	-0.3	-5.5	-11.2	-12.0

Key Assumptions

Region	2014 GDP %	2015F GDP %	2016F GDP %
US	2.4	3.2	3.2
Euro Zone	0.9	1.4	1.4
Japan	1.5	2.0	2.0
Singapore	3.2	3.3	3.3
Malaysia	5.9	5.2	5.2
Thailand	1.5	3.9	3.9
Indonesia	5.2	5.8	5.8
Hong Kong	3.5	3.7	3.7
China	7.2	7.0	7.0

Indicator	2014 Value	2015F Value	2016F Value
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/mt)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Indonesian Strategy Analyst Presentation: Kuala Lumpur, 12–13 Mar
CIFI Holdings Roadshow: Singapore, 16 Mar
ASEAN Conference: Taipei, 17–18 Mar
China Property Analyst Presentation: Singapore & Kuala Lumpur, 17–19 Mar
Indofood Sukses Maksud Roadshow: Singapore, 27 Mar
Sunway Berhad Luncheon: Kuala Lumpur, 31 Mar
Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow: Singapore (31 Mar), Kuala Lumpur (1 Apr)
Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Corporate Roadshow: Taipei (30 Mar), Singapore (2 Apr), Kuala Lumpur (3 Apr)

Outlook and Risk Factors

Xstep International Holdings

Earnings: Cut 2015–2016 net profit forecasts by 10.8% annually due to higher advertising spend and tax rates.
Dividend Yield: Expected to remain attractive at 6.8–7.4%.
Growth: Footwear sales are expected to grow at 13–15% annually, driven by government support for sportswear.
Valuation: Target multiple reduced to 9x 2015F PE.

China Power New Energy

Earnings: 2014 forecast cut by 27.6% due to curtailment and poor wind resources.
Capacity Expansion: Gas-fired power capacity to increase by 260% by end-2015, with higher utilisation hours.
Wind Power: 600MW new capacity expected to be fully operational in 2015, leading to higher revenue.
Garbage-to-Power: Capacity to expand to over 8,000 tonnes by end-2016, with potential for higher earnings.
Accounting Policy: Considering switching to BOT accounting for garbage power projects, which may increase earnings.

Valuation and Recommendation

Xstep International Holdings: Maintain HOLD with a target price of HK$2.71.
China Power New Energy: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$1.00.
Valuation Metrics: Xstep is undervalued compared to peers, while China Power New Energy is trading below industry averages in terms of PE and P/B.

Summary of Key Points

Xstep International Holdings:
- Improved sales in 2014 due to footwear.
- Net profit decline due to higher advertising and tax costs.
- Dividend yield is attractive at 7.4%.
- Maintain HOLD due to high valuations and slower growth expectations.
China Power New Energy:
- Expected 3% YoY earnings decline in 2014.
- Significant growth anticipated in 2015–2016 due to capacity expansion and improved utilisation.
- Maintain BUY due to attractive valuation and potential for growth.
- Garbage-to-power expansion is a key catalyst for future earnings.
Market Overview:
- Regional markets showed mixed performance with some indices showing gains and others losses.
- Key assumptions include GDP growth rates for various regions and commodity prices like Brent, CPO, and BDI.
Valuation:
- Xstep's PE and P/B are lower than the industry average.
- China Power New Energy's PE and P/B are below the industry average, supporting a BUY recommendation.
Corporate Events:
- A series of events are scheduled for March, including analyst presentations and roadshows, indicating active market engagement.