世界经济论坛-全球通往新经济之路：未来的市场（英文）-2020.10-32页

Summary of "Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy"

Core Content

The report "Markets of Tomorrow: Pathways to a New Economy" explores the concept of creating new markets to drive economic transformation towards sustainability, inclusivity, and innovation. It emphasizes the need for a combination of technological and socio-institutional innovation to build these markets, which are seen as crucial for addressing global challenges such as climate change, public health, and social inequality. The report outlines 20 promising markets of tomorrow, categorized into three main groups: Safeguarding planetary boundaries, Empowering and protecting people, and Advancing knowledge.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic transformation requires the creation of new markets that align with societal and environmental goals.
• The impact of the pandemic has accelerated the need for systemic change and highlighted the importance of building resilient and inclusive economic systems.
• Technological innovation is a key driver for new markets, but institutional frameworks are equally important to enable their development and sustainability.
• Public-private collaboration is essential to create and support the conditions for these markets to emerge and thrive.
• Global coordination and cross-industry cooperation are needed to ensure the successful development of markets with a global scope.

Key Information

3.1 The New Markets That Can Drive Tomorrow's Economic Transformation

The report identifies 20 markets of tomorrow, which are grouped into the following categories:

1. Safeguarding Planetary Boundaries

• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Greenhouse Gas Allowances
• Hydrogen (Blue and Green)
• Plastics Recycling
• Reforestation Services
• Water Rights and Quality Credits

2. Empowering and Protecting People

• Broad-Spectrum Antivirals
• Care Services
• Data Markets
• Digital Financial Services
• EdTech and Reskilling Services
• Hyperloop-Based Transport Services
• New Antibiotics
• Skills Capital
• Unemployment Insurance

3. Advancing Knowledge

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Genes and DNA Sequences
• Satellite Services
• Space Flights

3.2 Target Conditions for Establishing the Markets of Tomorrow

To develop these markets, seven key conditions must be met:

1. Invention: A new product or asset must be developed.
2. Production: A set of companies must be able and willing to produce and market it.
3. Demand: There must be sufficient market demand to support commercial viability.
4. Standards: A set of market standards must emerge.
5. Value Alignment: Society must align on how to value the new product or asset.
6. Codification: Legal frameworks must allow for the identification, ownership, and exchange of the product.
7. Infrastructure: The necessary physical, digital, and intangible infrastructure must be in place.

3.3 How Transformation Occurs

Economic transformation happens through the creation and adoption of new markets, which replace or build upon existing ones. These markets are niches of innovation that can significantly reshape the current economic paradigms. The success of these markets depends on the readiness of countries, which is influenced by technological capabilities, social capital, and public institutions that support future-oriented visions.

4. Building the Markets of Tomorrow

• Country-Level Public-Private Action: Governments and private actors must collaborate to create the necessary conditions for new markets.
• Selecting the Markets of Tomorrow: Markets should be chosen based on their potential to trigger growth and support broader economic transformation.
• Leveraging Available Indicators: Data and indicators can help assess the readiness and feasibility of new markets.
• Cross-Industry Action: Collaboration across industries can pool knowledge and focus on specific market conditions.

Conclusions and Next Steps

• The COVID-19 pandemic presents a unique opportunity to test and develop new markets that can lead to long-term economic and societal transformation.
• Countries with advanced technological capabilities and strong public institutions are better positioned to lead in creating these markets.
• Global coordination and cross-industry collaboration are essential for the realization of markets with a global scope.
• Innovative models of financing, intellectual property management, and public sector risk-taking will be necessary to support the development of these markets.
• The success of these markets depends on a combination of technological progress, institutional innovation, and collaboration between public and private sectors.

References and Contributors

The report references global studies, McKinsey Global Institute, and scientific literature on socio-technical systems. It is authored by a group of contributors who analyze the potential of these markets and their implications for economic and societal development.