20251106-宝城期货-甲醇专题报告_国内甲醇产业现状剖析与展望_13页_1mb

Methanol Market Analysis: Supply, Inventory, and Demand Pressures

This report analyzes the current state of the domestic methanol market and its outlook. The core finding is that the market faces severe distress due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, leading to a sustained surplus and downward pressure on prices.

1. High Supply Pressure

• Domestic Production: China’s methanol capacity continues to expand, reaching 11,255 tons in 2024, with planned growth in 2025. Utilization rates remain high, especially in November (91.72%), driving up output.
• Imports: Imports remain strong primary source is from the Middle East, contributing 76.2% of China’s 2024 imports. Even with temporary shutdowns in Iran, overall supply is expected to stay "relatively ample," adding to the market surplus.

2. Accumulated Inventory

• Market inventory, particularly at coastal ports, is at historical highs (~157.8 tons). High storage congestion and slow inventory liquidation amplify downward pressure on prices.

3. Weak Demand

• MTO Sector: Profits are deeply negative (~-1,040 RMB/ton), curbing MTO operations and limiting demand.
• Traditional Demand: Sectors like formaldehyde and acetic acid show declining utilization rates and limited upside potential, reflecting weak recovery.

In summary, the high supply and inventory, coupled with weak demand, characterize the current methanol market. Current concerns include concerns about high inventories, MTO recovery, and policy risks. The outlook suggests further downward pressure unless demand recovers significantly.