国际战略研究中心-美俄关系正处于十字路口（英文）-2020.10-9页_57kb

U.S.-Russia Relations at a Crossroads: Summary

Core Content

The document "U.S.-Russia Relations at a Crossroads" outlines the current state of relations between the United States and Russia, highlighting the deteriorating nature of their interactions while identifying potential areas for cooperation. It emphasizes the need for structured dialogue and transparency to prevent escalation, particularly in the context of emerging global challenges and regional dynamics.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. Arms Control

• Current Situation: The U.S.-Russia strategic stability framework is under threat due to treaty violations and the Trump administration's skepticism about existing agreements.
• Opportunities: There is a potential for new, flexible, and nonbinding arms control mechanisms, especially regarding hypersonic weapons and anti-satellite systems.
• China's Role: China's reluctance to participate in trilateral dialogue with the U.S. and Russia is due to its perception of strategic inferiority. A trilateral discussion on intermediate-range missiles in Asia could be a starting point for cooperation.
• Multilateral Frameworks: A broader P5 (United States, Russia, China, UK, France) format may encourage China's involvement, though legal binding remains uncertain.

2. U.S.-China Rivalry

• Deterioration: U.S.-China relations have reached their lowest point since the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, marked by economic, military, technological, and ideological tensions.
• Structural Nature: The rivalry is structural, not personal, and will likely persist regardless of political changes.
• Russian Perspective: Russia sees the U.S.-China rivalry as a reordering of international relations, and while it seeks cooperation with China, it also aims to balance its relations with other global players.
• Strategic Implications: Russia's alignment with China is partly driven by shared opposition to a U.S.-dominated global system. However, Russia's economic dependence on the West and its own strategic interests limit full alignment.

3. Russia's Chairmanship of the Arctic Council

• Cooperation Potential: The Arctic remains a positive area of U.S.-Russia cooperation, especially with Russia's upcoming chairmanship (2021-2023).
• Challenges: U.S. policy focus has shifted away from Arctic governance, while Russia's military and economic presence has increased, raising security concerns.
• Key Issues: Disagreements over the legal status of the Northern Sea Route, restrictions on foreign naval access, and the need for transparency in military activities.
• Opportunities for Cooperation: Both countries could work on environmental protection, permafrost research, and joint maritime domain awareness initiatives. A new Arctic security forum is suggested to address military tensions.

4. Transparency and Deconfliction in the Eastern Mediterranean

• Flashpoint Risk: The Eastern Mediterranean is identified as a high-risk area for military incidents between the U.S. and Russia.
• Regional Dynamics: Russia views the region as a "soft underbelly" and a source of insecurity, while the U.S. sees it as a critical energy hub and NATO's southern flank.
• Syria and Libya: Russia has intervened in Syria and Libya, while the U.S. seeks to reduce its military footprint and promote political reconciliation.
• Turkey's Role: Turkey complicates U.S.-Russia relations due to its NATO membership and its growing ties with Russia, which provide it with leverage and self-promotion opportunities.
• Need for Dialogue: A regular, depoliticized dialogue is essential to manage regional tensions and prevent accidental conflicts. Cooperation with other stakeholders, such as the EU and France, is also encouraged.

Key Information

• U.S.-Russia Relations: At their worst since the Cold War, with a risk of escalation.
• Arms Control: A critical area where cooperation is possible, though the U.S. and Russia disagree on the future direction of treaties.
• Arctic Cooperation: Despite challenges, the Arctic Council offers a platform for environmental and economic collaboration.
• Eastern Mediterranean: A region of high military and diplomatic tension, requiring deconfliction and dialogue to avoid conflict.
• China's Role: China's non-participation in trilateral dialogue is due to its strategic perception, but a broader multilateral approach could encourage involvement.
• Strategic Balance: Russia seeks to maintain a balance between cooperation with China and engagement with other global actors.

Conclusion

While U.S.-Russia relations face significant challenges, there are still opportunities for structured cooperation in the Arctic and in managing regional tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both sides must prioritize transparency, deconfliction, and dialogue to prevent further deterioration and build mutual understanding. The outcome of the U.S. election in November 2020 will play a crucial role in shaping the future of these relations.