2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Extended_Arrangement_10页_398kb

Ireland: Extended Arrangement—Interim Review Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism

Core Content

This document is a staff report prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the Extended Arrangement with Ireland under the Emergency Financing Mechanism (EFM). It was completed on February 2, 2011, and outlines the progress and challenges in implementing the program, which aims to restore confidence in the Irish banking sector and stabilize the economy.

The report highlights that program implementation has been on track, despite a turbulent political environment and market uncertainty. The Emergency Financing Mechanism was approved on December 6, 2010, providing Ireland with SDR 19.5 billion (€22.5 billion), part of a broader €85 billion financing package. The first disbursement of SDR 5 billion occurred on January 18, 2011, alongside the first EU disbursement.

Main Views and Key Information

Program Implementation

• Banking Sector:

  • A comprehensive strategy is being implemented to restore confidence, including recapitalization, deleveraging, and bank resolution.
  • Recapitalization of core banks has begun, with a target of achieving a 12% core Tier 1 capital ratio by end-February 2011.
  • Stress tests and diagnostic asset valuations are underway to assess the asset quality and vulnerabilities of the banking system.
  • Deleveraging plans were submitted by banks by end-February 2011, and the process involves careful calibration of trade-offs between liquidity and asset sales.
  • Bank resolution framework is being strengthened with draft legislation for a special bank resolution regime, expected to be finalized and submitted to parliament.

• Fiscal Performance:

  • Fiscal targets have been met or exceeded, with the exchequer primary balance reaching a margin of 0.75% of GDP.
  • The Finance Bill was approved in January 2011, facilitating the implementation of the fiscal program.
  • Tax reforms are being introduced, including the reduction of the universal social charge and the adjustment of self-employed tax rates.

Market and Economic Indicators

• Economic Recovery: A modest export-led recovery is observed, with real GDP growth in Q3 2010 at 0.5%, exceeding expectations.
• Banking Sector Stress: Despite progress, the banking sector remains under significant stress, with negative bank profits and elevated and volatile spreads for both banks and sovereign bonds.
• Unemployment: Remains around 13.5%, with emigration continuing to major destinations such as Canada, Australia, the U.K., and the U.S..
• Market Reaction: Sovereign bond spreads fell initially after the approval of the Extended Arrangement but rebounded due to political uncertainty and rating downgrades.

Data and Monitoring

• Data Gaps: Efforts are ongoing to improve data quality and reporting, especially regarding debt service payments and distinction between domestic and international financial institutions.
• Monitoring Mechanisms: A centralized unit in the Department of Finance has been established to coordinate and monitor program implementation, working closely with the Central Bank of Ireland, National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), and other agencies.
• Safeguards: A safeguards assessment of the Central Bank of Ireland is in progress and will be completed by the first review under the Extended Arrangement.

Challenges and Considerations

• Political Uncertainty: The turbulent political environment has raised concerns about policy continuity, with early elections scheduled for February 25, 2011, potentially delaying program reviews.
• Interdependence of Banking Elements: The simultaneous implementation of recapitalization, deleveraging, and resolution is a complex operational challenge, especially due to market volatility and inherited stress.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The fiscal program is being implemented with flexibility in its design, including structural benchmarks and indicative quantitative goals, to ensure long-term stability and coherence.

Conclusion

The staff appraisal emphasizes the need for sustained policy implementation and reduced political uncertainty to improve market sentiment and stabilize the banking sector. The banking sector overhaul is encouraging, but significant challenges remain, particularly in balancing liquidity needs with asset restructuring and deleveraging. The fiscal program is progressing, and the Finance Bill is a key step in its execution. The first and second program reviews will be combined due to the imminent elections, and technical discussions will continue to assess progress and operational aspects.

Key Figures (Selected Economic Indicators, 2005–2010)