2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Eleventh_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_96页_2mb

Summary of the Eleventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement for Ireland

Core Content

The Eleventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement for Ireland, conducted by the IMF in 2013, assesses the country's economic performance and policy implementation since the previous review. The review highlights the continued progress in fiscal consolidation, the ongoing efforts to resolve nonperforming loans (NPLs), and the challenges in addressing long-term unemployment. It also outlines the macro-financial outlook, risks to growth and debt sustainability, and the importance of financial sector stability for economic recovery.

Main Points

• Fiscal Policy:

  • Ireland's fiscal consolidation remains on track, with the general government deficit expected to reach 6.8% of GDP in 2013 and gross public debt projected to peak at 123% of GDP.
  • The fiscal adjustment has improved Ireland's standing in sovereign bond markets, although the pace of consolidation has slowed compared to previous years.
  • Continued implementation of Budget 2013 is essential to meet fiscal targets, and further consolidation is planned for 2014–15.

• Financial Sector Policy:

  • The resolution of NPLs is a central focus, with the NPL ratio reaching 26%.
  • The Mortgage Arrears Resolution Targets (MART) framework and balance sheet assessments (BSA) are being implemented to address impaired loans.
  • The establishment of the Insolvency Service and reforms to repossession proceedings are expected to facilitate loan resolution.
  • Bank funding costs have risen, but Eurosystem support has helped contain the impact.
  • The resolution of SMEs in arrears is seen as critical to enabling investment and job creation.

• Structural Reforms:

  • Employment has shown improvement, with the unemployment rate declining to 13.7% in Q2 2013.
  • However, long-term unemployment remains a significant challenge, with over 58% of jobseekers affected.
  • Enhancing employment services and training for the long-term unemployed is a priority.
  • The housing market shows tentative signs of recovery, particularly in Dublin, but uncertainty persists.

• Macroeconomic Outlook:

  • Real GDP growth for 2013 was revised down to 0.6% y/y due to weak export performance and subdued domestic demand.
  • The 2014 growth projection was also lowered to 1.8% y/y, reflecting weaker consumption and export growth.
  • Fixed investment is expected to rise by 2% in 2013, driven by improved business sentiment and housing starts.
  • The recovery is expected to be protracted, with domestic demand relying heavily on net exports.

• Debt Sustainability:

  • Public debt remains fragile, with the gross public debt-to-GDP ratio projected to peak at 123.3% in 2013 and decline to less than 110% by 2018.
  • Risks include a growth shock, a macro-fiscal shock, and contingent liability shocks.
  • A 10% of GDP shock is considered a potential risk factor, which could push public debt to 135% of GDP in 2015 if combined with a growth shock.

• Key Risks:

  • External Demand: A slower-than-expected recovery in key trading partners could negatively impact exports and GDP.
  • Domestic Demand: Consumption recovery is contingent on employment gains and fiscal consolidation.
  • Financial Conditions: Continued progress in resolving NPLs and improving bank profitability is crucial for credit availability and market confidence.

Key Information

• Document Overview:

  • The review includes the Staff Report, Staff Supplements, and a Press Release.
  • Additional documents such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are also part of the package.
  • The policy of publication allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.

• Economic Indicators:

  • Real GDP fell 0.9% y/y in Q1 2013, with a 1.6% statistical discrepancy.
  • Consumer sentiment and core retail sales improved in June–July 2013.
  • The PMI for manufacturing crossed the expansion threshold in June and continued to improve through August.
  • Residential property prices in Dublin rose 2.3% y/y in July, while commercial property prices also showed positive trends.

• Fiscal Performance:

  • The exchequer deficit through end August 2013 was in line with expectations.
  • Cumulative primary expenditure was 1% of GDP lower than in 2012, with tax revenues offsetting shortfalls in VAT, excise duties, and deposit interest retention tax.

• Banking Sector:

  • Bank bond yields have risen, but Eurosystem funding has declined.
  • The resolution of impaired loans and the improvement of bank profitability are critical for future lending capacity and market stability.

• IMF Recommendations:

  • The IMF emphasizes the importance of maintaining fiscal consolidation efforts.
  • It calls for continued progress in loan resolution and the effectiveness of the resolution framework.
  • The availability of an ESM direct bank recapitalization backstop is recommended to support financial market stability and debt sustainability.

Conclusion

The Eleventh Review underscores Ireland's progress in fiscal and financial sector reforms, but highlights ongoing challenges in economic recovery and debt sustainability. The review calls for continued implementation of policies, increased focus on employment and SME support, and the availability of European financial support to bolster market confidence and ensure a durable recovery.