ODASA-2016-2045年新兴科技趋势报告（英文）-2020.9-35页_4mb

2016 S&T Strategic Trends Report Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology), is the third annual edition of a strategic analysis on emerging science and technology (S&T) trends that are expected to influence the U.S. Army's future capabilities and operating environment over the next 30 years. The report synthesizes 32 forecasts from various reputable organizations, including government agencies, think tanks, and industry analysts, to identify 24 key S&T trends and 6 contextual forces that will shape global development through 2045.

Main Objectives

1. Inform Army Leaders: Provide insights into S&T trends that will influence the future operating environment and warfighting capabilities.
2. Spark Strategic Dialogue: Encourage discussions on S&T investments to ensure the U.S. Army maintains an overmatch in future operations.

Key Emerging S&T Trends

• Robotics and Autonomous Systems:

  • Robots will become common in daily life, impacting transportation, healthcare, and infrastructure.
  • Autonomous systems will be used in military operations, but also pose ethical and tactical challenges.
  • Cyber threats will increase as these systems become more interconnected.

• Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing):

  • Will enable on-demand production of tools, parts, and medical devices.
  • Military logistics will benefit from localized manufacturing.
  • Risks include the potential for digital piracy and the proliferation of weapons through 3D printing.

• Analytics:

  • The volume of data will grow rapidly, and analytics will become more sophisticated.
  • Big data will be used in personal life and enterprise, leading to new challenges in data ownership and privacy.
  • Cyber adversaries will exploit stolen or accessible data to undermine U.S. security.

• Human Augmentation:

  • Technologies like exoskeletons, brain-computer interfaces, and wearable devices will enhance human capabilities.
  • May lead to an augmentation arms race with adversaries.
  • Could create economic disparities and new cyber threats targeting neural interfaces.

• Mobile & Cloud Computing:

  • Mobile devices will become more powerful and integrated with sensors.
  • Cloud computing will provide scalable and flexible IT resources.
  • Will transform sectors like healthcare and education, but also increase cybersecurity risks.

• Medical Advances:

  • Personalized medicine, artificial organs, and advanced prosthetics will improve healthcare outcomes.
  • Trauma care will be revolutionized through robotic first responders and new medical techniques.
  • Rising costs and unequal access could create social and economic challenges.

• Cyber:

  • Cybersecurity will become a critical concern as more devices become connected.
  • The risk of large-scale cyberattacks, such as "cybergeddon," will increase.
  • The internet of things (IoT) will expand the attack surface for cyber threats.

• Energy:

  • Global energy demand is expected to rise significantly.
  • Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by renewable energy sources.
  • Competition for rare materials used in energy technologies will emerge.

• Smart Cities:

  • Urban populations will grow, leading to increased pressure on infrastructure and resources.
  • Smart cities will use data and automation to improve efficiency and sustainability.
  • Cities without access to these technologies may become unstable and conflict-prone.

• Internet of Things (IoT):

  • Over 100 billion devices are expected to be connected to the internet by 2045.
  • IoT will enable automation in monitoring, management, and repair tasks.
  • Risks include mass surveillance, privacy concerns, and new attack vectors for adversaries.

• Food and Water Technology:

  • Food and water shortages will become critical global issues.
  • Innovations like desalination, micro-irrigation, and genetically modified crops will be essential.
  • These technologies may become a source of conflict and competition.

• Quantum Computing:

  • Quantum computing could revolutionize fields such as cryptography, materials science, and climate modeling.
  • Potential applications in the next 15–20 years, with significant investment expected from governments and industry.

• Social Empowerment:

  • Social media and digital platforms will empower individuals to shape their own communities.
  • Will challenge traditional power structures and influence public perception of national service.
  • May lead to a shift in how the U.S. Army communicates and engages with the public.

• Advanced Digital:

  • Computing power and digital resources will continue to grow and become more accessible.
  • Voice and gestural interfaces will evolve, with brain-computer interfaces potentially allowing direct control of devices through thought.
  • Digital integration into everyday life will create new opportunities and vulnerabilities for the Army.

• Blended Reality:

  • Virtual and augmented reality will merge with the real world, enhancing human interaction with digital information.
  • Expected to become more prevalent, with applications in training, communication, and situational awareness.

• Technology for Climate Change:

  • Climate change will drive innovation in energy, infrastructure, and environmental technologies.
  • Solutions will be needed to address rising sea levels, extreme weather, and resource scarcity.

• Advanced Materials:

  • New materials will improve performance in military and civilian applications.
  • Will enable lighter, stronger, and more efficient systems across various domains.

• Novel Weaponry:

  • Emerging technologies may lead to new forms of warfare, including autonomous weapons and cyber warfare.
  • The U.S. Army must anticipate and prepare for these developments.

• Space:

  • Space will become a key domain for military and commercial activities.
  • Space-based assets will be critical for communication, surveillance, and navigation.

• Synthetic Biology:

  • Will enable new medical and biological applications, including bioengineered organisms and personalized medicine.
  • Could lead to new forms of warfare and security threats.

• Changing Nature of Work:

  • Automation and augmentation will reshape the labor market.
  • Could lead to job displacement and economic inequality.

• Privacy:

  • As data becomes more central to daily life, privacy concerns will grow.
  • The Army must consider how to protect data while maintaining operational effectiveness.

• Education:

  • Digital and blended reality technologies will transform how people learn.
  • Will enable personalized and remote education, but also raise concerns about access and quality.

• Transportation and Logistics:

  • Autonomous and smart transportation systems will improve efficiency and safety.
  • Will impact military logistics and urban mobility.

Cross-Cutting Contextual Trends

• Urbanization:

  • Cities will house 65–70% of the global population by 2045.
  • Will strain infrastructure and increase the need for smart city technologies.

• Climate Change:

  • Will drive innovation in energy, materials, and environmental technologies.
  • May lead to new security challenges and resource conflicts.

• Resource Constraints:

  • Scarcity of materials and energy will become more pressing.
  • Will influence both technological development and global stability.

• Shifting Demographics:

  • Aging populations and changing workforce structures will impact military and civilian operations.
  • May lead to increased demand for medical and augmentation technologies.

• Globalization of Innovation:

  • Innovation will be more widely distributed across the globe.
  • The U.S. Army must remain competitive in a rapidly evolving technological landscape.

• Rise of a Global Middle Class:

  • Will increase demand for technology and create new economic opportunities.
  • May also lead to new security and geopolitical challenges.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of strategic foresight in S&T investment planning. It highlights that while technological advancements will bring significant benefits, they also pose new challenges in terms of security, privacy, and social stability. The U.S. Army must remain agile and proactive in its approach to emerging technologies to maintain an operational advantage and adapt to a rapidly changing global environment. The inclusion of trend cards and a detailed methodology in the appendices ensures that this report serves as a valuable resource for informed decision-making.