2017年-数据局_美国陆军智库：2016-2045年新兴科技趋势_35页_5mb

2016 S&T Strategic Trends Report Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology), is the third annual synthesis of emerging science and technology (S&T) trends likely to influence the future operating environment and Army capabilities over the next 30 years. It aims to inform U.S. Army leaders and stakeholders about these trends and stimulate strategic dialogue on S&T investments to maintain a technological overmatch in future operations.

The report consolidates 32 S&T forecasts from various global sources, including government agencies, industry leaders, and academic institutions, to identify 24 key S&T trends and six contextual forces that will shape the evolution of technology and its impact on national security, society, and the economy.

Main Trends

1. Robotics and Autonomous Systems

• Synopsis: By 2045, robots and autonomous systems will be commonplace, transforming transportation, service, and military operations.
• Enablers: Improved mobility, dexterity, and intelligence in robotic systems.
• Recent Developments: Growth of autonomous vehicles and software agents.
• Impacts: Displacement of labor, increased cyber threats, and new ethical and tactical challenges in warfare.

2. Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)

• Synopsis: 3D printing will revolutionize manufacturing by enabling on-demand, customized production.
• Enablers: Declining costs, open-source tools, and multi-material printing capabilities.
• Recent Developments: Expansion of 3D printing in military logistics and personal use.
• Impacts: Streamlined supply chains, new risks of digital piracy, and potential for adversaries to print weapons and other equipment.

3. Analytics

• Synopsis: The volume of data will grow exponentially, and analytics will become more sophisticated.
• Enablers: Automated data processing, immersive data visualization, and AI integration.
• Recent Developments: Increasing use of big data in personal and enterprise applications.
• Impacts: Enhanced decision-making, new challenges in data ownership and privacy, and increased vulnerability to cyber threats.

4. Human Augmentation

• Synopsis: Technology will enhance human capabilities, from physical to cognitive.
• Enablers: Wearables, exoskeletons, brain-computer interfaces, and nootropic drugs.
• Recent Developments: Growth of IoT-enabled wearable devices and neural interfaces.
• Impacts: Potential for a new "augmentation arms race," increased security risks, and social inequality.

5. Mobile & Cloud Computing

• Synopsis: Mobile and cloud computing will redefine how people access and use data.
• Enablers: High connectivity, powerful mobile devices, and scalable cloud infrastructure.
• Recent Developments: Mobile devices becoming more feature-rich with embedded sensors.
• Impacts: Improved personal productivity and healthcare, but also increased cybersecurity and privacy concerns.

6. Medical Advances

• Synopsis: Advances in genomics, artificial organs, and trauma care will transform healthcare.
• Enablers: Personalized medicine, biotechnology, and AI-driven diagnostics.
• Recent Developments: Growth of robotic first responders and tissue preservation techniques.
• Impacts: Longer lifespans, new medical treatments, and challenges to national health systems and social safety nets.

7. Cyber

• Synopsis: Cybersecurity will become a critical concern as the Internet of Things (IoT) expands.
• Enablers: Increased connectivity of everyday devices and systems.
• Recent Developments: Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and growing concerns about data security.
• Impacts: Risk of "cybergeddon," increased need for robust cyber defense, and potential for large-scale disruption.

8. Energy

• Synopsis: Energy demand will rise, and new technologies will reshape energy production and distribution.
• Enablers: Fracking, renewable energy, and nuclear advancements.
• Recent Developments: Declining costs of solar and wind power.
• Impacts: Environmental and geopolitical challenges, including resource scarcity and social instability in regions dependent on fossil fuels.

9. Smart Cities

• Synopsis: Urbanization will lead to the development of smart cities using data and automation.
• Enablers: ICT technologies, smart grids, and IoT-enabled infrastructure.
• Recent Developments: Growth of megacities and increased use of data for urban planning.
• Impacts: Pressure on infrastructure, potential for increased efficiency, and risk of instability in under-resourced cities.

10. Internet of Things (IoT)

• Synopsis: The IoT will connect billions of devices, generating massive amounts of data.
• Enablers: Low-cost sensors, connectivity, and automation.
• Recent Developments: Expansion of IoT in consumer and industrial sectors.
• Impacts: Increased efficiency but also heightened cybersecurity and privacy risks.

11. Food and Water Technology

• Synopsis: Food and water shortages will become a major global challenge.
• Enablers: Desalination, genetic modification, and precision agriculture.
• Recent Developments: Rising food prices and water stress projections.
• Impacts: Potential for conflict, new innovations in resource management, and increased focus on sustainability.

12. Quantum Computing

• Synopsis: Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize cryptography and other fields.
• Enablers: Advances in superposition and entanglement research.
• Recent Developments: Breakthroughs in quantum system development.
• Impacts: Transformation of encryption, potential for new security threats, and significant investment from governments and industry.

13. Social Empowerment

• Synopsis: Social media and digital platforms will empower individuals to shape their own communities.
• Enablers: Social networking, content creation, and cryptocurrencies.
• Recent Developments: Growth of social media usage and decentralized currencies.
• Impacts: Shift in public perception of national service, challenges in narrative control, and new models of governance and commerce.

14. Advanced Digital

• Synopsis: Digital systems will become more integrated into daily life.
• Enablers: Voice and gestural interfaces, brain-computer interfaces.
• Recent Developments: Rapid evolution of digital interaction methods.
• Impacts: Enhanced communication and coordination for the Army, but also greater vulnerability to cyber threats.

15. Blended Reality

• Synopsis: Virtual and augmented reality will merge the physical and digital worlds.
• Enablers: High-resolution displays, location tracking, and immersive content.
• Recent Developments: Growth of VR in entertainment and other sectors.
• Impacts: New opportunities for training and simulation, but also potential for misuse and new security challenges.

Cross-Cutting Contextual Trends

• Urbanization: By 2045, 65-70% of the global population will live in cities, leading to increased pressure on infrastructure and services.
• Climate Change: Will drive innovation in renewable energy and resource management but also create new security and economic challenges.
• Resource Constraints: Scarcity of materials like rare earth metals will impact the development and deployment of advanced technologies.
• Shifting Demographics: Will influence labor markets, social structures, and the demand for new technologies.
• Globalization of Innovation: Will lead to more competition and collaboration across borders.
• Rise of the Global Middle Class: Will increase demand for technology and drive economic growth, but also create new social and political dynamics.

Conclusion

This report highlights the transformative potential of emerging S&T trends and their implications for the U.S. Army and global security. As the world becomes more interconnected and technologically advanced, the Army must strategically invest in these areas to maintain operational superiority and adapt to a rapidly changing environment. The report emphasizes the need for foresight, collaboration, and a proactive approach to S&T investment planning.