ODASA-2016-2045年新兴科技趋势报告（英文）-2020.7-35页_4mb

2016 Emerging Science and Technology Trends Report Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology), presents a synthesis of 32 science and technology (S&T) forecasts from various international and domestic sources. It aims to inform U.S. Army leaders and stakeholders about S&T trends that will influence the future operating environment and Army capabilities over the next 30 years. The report also encourages strategic dialogue on S&T investments to maintain an overmatch in future operations.

Main Objectives

1. Inform Leadership: Provide insights into S&T trends that will shape the future of the Army and its operational environment.
2. Spark Strategic Dialogue: Encourage discussions on S&T investment priorities to ensure the Army remains technologically superior.

Key S&T Trends

The report identifies 24 emerging S&T trends, which are categorized into the following areas:

1. Robotics and Autonomous Systems

• Synopsis: By 2045, robots and autonomous systems will be commonplace, transforming transportation, service, and military operations.
• Enablers: AI, machine learning, and sensor advancements.
• Recent Developments: Growth in autonomous vehicles and their impact on the sharing economy.
• Impacts: Economic displacement, cyber threats, and new military applications.

2. Additive Manufacturing

• Synopsis: 3D printing will evolve to produce complex, multi-material objects, revolutionizing manufacturing and logistics.
• Enablers: Advances in materials science and digital fabrication.
• Recent Developments: Drop in 3D printer costs and open-source tool availability.
• Impacts: Military logistics transformation, rise in digital piracy, and potential for weapon production.

3. Analytics

• Synopsis: The volume of data will grow exponentially, and the ability to analyze it will improve significantly.
• Enablers: Big data, AI, and cloud computing.
• Recent Developments: Growth in data visualization and immersive analytics.
• Impacts: Enhanced decision-making, but also increased concerns over data privacy and security.

4. Human Augmentation

• Synopsis: Technology will enhance human capabilities through wearable devices, implants, and cognitive enhancements.
• Enablers: IoT, exoskeletons, brain-computer interfaces.
• Recent Developments: Advances in prosthetics and cognitive drugs.
• Impacts: Enhanced Soldier performance, but also potential for cyber threats and social inequality.

5. Mobile & Cloud Computing

• Synopsis: Mobile and cloud computing will become more powerful and pervasive, transforming personal and professional life.
• Enablers: Mobile device capabilities, cloud infrastructure.
• Recent Developments: Increased mobile connectivity and cloud-based services.
• Impacts: Improved productivity and access to information, but also heightened cybersecurity risks.

6. Medical Advances

• Synopsis: Genomics, AI, and biotechnology will revolutionize healthcare and extend human lifespan.
• Enablers: Genomics, 3D bioprinting, and neural interfaces.
• Recent Developments: Progress in personalized medicine and prosthetics.
• Impacts: Improved trauma care, but also challenges in access and affordability.

7. Cyber

• Synopsis: Cybersecurity will become increasingly critical as more devices and systems are connected.
• Enablers: IoT, AI, and quantum computing.
• Recent Developments: Rise in cyberattacks and the threat of "cybergeddon".
• Impacts: Increased vulnerability to attacks, need for robust defense strategies.

8. Energy

• Synopsis: Global energy demand will rise, and renewable energy sources will become more viable.
• Enablers: Fracking, solar, and nuclear technologies.
• Recent Developments: Declining costs of solar energy and new reactor designs.
• Impacts: Economic and social instability in fossil fuel-dependent regions.

9. Smart Cities

• Synopsis: Urbanization will lead to the development of smart cities using data and automation.
• Enablers: IoT, smart grids, and data analytics.
• Recent Developments: Growth in megacities and urban challenges.
• Impacts: Pressure on infrastructure and potential for instability in underdeveloped cities.

10. Internet of Things (IoT)

• Synopsis: The IoT will connect billions of devices, creating a vast network of data.
• Enablers: Connectivity, sensors, and cloud computing.
• Recent Developments: Expansion of IoT applications beyond consumer use.
• Impacts: Enhanced efficiency but also increased cybersecurity and privacy risks.

11. Food and Water Technology

• Synopsis: Food and water scarcity will become critical global issues.
• Enablers: Desalination, GM crops, and automation.
• Recent Developments: Degradation of farmland and rising food prices.
• Impacts: Potential for conflict and new innovations in resource management.

12. Quantum Computing

• Synopsis: Quantum computing will revolutionize data processing and cryptography.
• Enablers: Superposition and entanglement principles.
• Recent Developments: Advances in quantum systems and increased investment.
• Impacts: Potential to break current encryption methods and enhance scientific research.

13. Social Empowerment

• Synopsis: Social media and digital platforms will empower individuals and reshape societal dynamics.
• Enablers: Social networking, cryptocurrencies, and crowdsourcing.
• Recent Developments: Growth in social media usage and new forms of digital currency.
• Impacts: Shift in public perception of national service and increased challenges in information control.

14. Advanced Digital

• Synopsis: Digital technologies will become more integrated into daily life.
• Enablers: Voice interfaces, gestural controls, and brain-computer interfaces.
• Recent Developments: Evolution of mobile and cloud computing.
• Impacts: Enhanced Soldier capabilities but also increased cyber threats.

Cross-Cutting Contextual Trends

The report also highlights six contextual trends that will influence the evolution of S&T:

1. Urbanization
2. Climate Change
3. Resource Constraints
4. Shifting Demographics
5. Globalization of Innovation
6. Rise of the Global Middle Class

These trends will shape the intersection of S&T, sociopolitical change, and national security through 2045.

Conclusion

This report underscores the transformative potential of emerging S&T trends over the next 30 years and the need for the U.S. Army to strategically invest in these areas to maintain its technological edge. It emphasizes the importance of foresight in preparing for future challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of global competition and technological disruption.

Trend Cards

The report includes detailed "trend cards" that summarize each S&T trend, its enablers, recent developments, and potential impacts on society, politics, the economy, the environment, and national defense.

Methodology

The report synthesizes data from 32 sources, including government agencies, industry analysts, and academic institutions. It focuses on broad, impactful trends rather than narrow industry forecasts. The methodology is described in detail in Appendix B, which outlines the analysis process and selection criteria for the reports.

Contact

For questions regarding this report, please contact:

• Aaron Chan
• (Acting) Director, Technology Wargaming and Manufacturing Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology)
• ASA(ALT) SAAL-ZT
• 703-697-0427
• aaron.m.chan2.civ @ mail.mil