20230413-招银国际-Entering_into_a_year_of_business_transition_5页_1mb

JD.com (JD US)：进入业务转型年

关键要点

• JD is entering a business transition phase, focusing on enhancing supply chain capabilities, driving third-party merchant engagement, and diversifying product offerings to expand consumer and merchant base.
• Organizational restructuring (announced in Apr 2023) aims to improve business agility and medium-term 3P operating environment, but may add near-term revenue headwinds.
• Target price reduced to US$61.2, implying a 53% downside from current level (US$40.01), translating to 22x 2023E non-GAAP PE.
• Revenue growth outlook lowered for 2023/2024E due to impacts of restructuring and merchandise category shifts.
• Long-term revenue CAGR (2022-2025E) of 7.9% driven by net services revenue growth (CAGR: 18.4%) and net product revenue (CAGR: 5.4%).

Financial Highlights (Based on Forecast)

• Revenue: 1087.2B RMB (2023E), 1208.3B RMB (2024E).
• Non-GAAP Net Profit: 30.1B RMB (2023E), 38.0B RMB (2024E).
• Adjusted Net Profit Margin expected to reach 2.8% in 2023E (up from 2.7% in 2022).

Recommendation

• Maintain BUY rating, driven by confidence in management execution and long-term growth potential despite near-term headwinds.

注：此报告基于分析，实际投资决策需结合个人风险承受能力及市场变化。