全球可再生能源市场更新—2022年和2023年展望-29页_5mb

报告摘要

Summary of Renewable Energy Market Update (2022 and 2023 Outlook)

Core Content

The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an updated outlook for the renewable energy market in 2022 and 2023, emphasizing the impact of the global energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report highlights the role of renewable energy in reducing dependence on fossil fuels and enhancing energy security.

Main Points

Renewable electricity capacity additions reached a new record in 2021, with 295 GW added globally, despite supply chain disruptions and high commodity prices.
Solar PV and wind are the main drivers of renewable growth, with solar PV expected to account for 60% of the 2022 capacity additions, reaching 190 GW.
China remains the largest market for renewable capacity additions, contributing 45% of the global total in 2022-2023, and is expected to lead in solar PV deployment.
The European Union is also a major contributor, with Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland accelerating renewable deployment to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas.
India is expected to see increased renewable capacity additions due to delayed projects from previous auctions being commissioned.
The United States faces challenges due to uncertainty in policy support and trade measures, which have reduced solar PV module availability and increased prices.

Key Trends

Cost increases for solar PV and wind installations in 2022 and 2023 are expected due to higher commodity and freight prices.
Despite these increases, renewable technologies are becoming more competitive due to the sharp rise in fossil fuel prices.
Biofuel demand recovered in 2021 to near 2019 levels, but is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2022 and 2023 due to higher feedstock prices and economic slowdowns.
The global energy crisis has increased market uncertainties and policy pressures, especially in the European Union, where energy security is a top priority.

Forecast Summary

Global renewable capacity additions are expected to increase by 8% in 2022, reaching nearly 320 GW, and are revised upward from December 2021 forecasts.
2023 is expected to see stable growth unless new policies are implemented, with solar PV likely to break another record, while wind and bioenergy remain stable.
Hydropower additions in China are expected to decline by 40%, limiting overall global renewable growth.
Offshore wind in China is expected to surpass the European Union and UK combined by the end of 2022.
Renewable electricity generation in the European Union is projected to increase by 180 TWh from 2021-2023, nearly matching the highest level of Russian gas-based electricity generation.

Policy and Market Implications

The IEA highlights that policy implementation is crucial for the acceleration of renewable deployment, especially in the European Union and India.
Uncertainty in US policy and trade measures are expected to slow renewable growth in the short term.
Energy security is driving unprecedented policy momentum, especially in the European Union, which is shifting focus towards renewables and energy efficiency.
The forecast for 2023 and beyond will be influenced by whether new and stronger policies are introduced and implemented in the next six months.

Key Uncertainties

The impact of new policy targets announced post-Ukraine invasion is yet to be fully realized due to slow implementation.
Trade policies and tariffs on solar PV modules from Southeast Asia and China are complicating procurement in the United States.
Geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges are expected to increase forecast uncertainties beyond 2023.

Conclusion

The global energy crisis has accelerated the transition to renewable energy, with renewable electricity showing strong potential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enhance energy security. While cost increases pose challenges, fossil fuel price surges have improved the competitiveness of renewables. The report underscores the importance of policy support and market stability in driving future renewable growth.