2017年-世界发展银行全球_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_Power_Sector_Note___Least-Cost_Power_Development_Plan_56页_2mb

Bosnia and Herzegovina Power Sector Note: st-cost Power Development Plan Summary

Core Content

This report presents a least-cost planning analysis of the power sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for the period 2016–2035. The analysis is conducted by the World Bank ESMAP program in collaboration with the Independent System Operator (ISO) and other stakeholders. It evaluates the economic and strategic implications of various energy development scenarios, including the Indicative Plan (IP) and optimized plans, while considering policy objectives related to energy efficiency, renewable energy, carbon reduction, and local emissions.

Main Scenarios and Findings

1. Base Scenario

• Net System Cost: €3,774 million
• CAPEX: €3,451 million
• OPEX: €4,221 million
• System LCOE: €42/MWh
• Total Generation: 397,851 GWh
• Net Exports: 36% of internal demand
• Coal Consumption: 273 mt
• Key Observations:
  • Supports building all four coal plants, but delays their commissioning by 6–15 years compared to the IP.
  • Excludes the Zenica gas plant.
  • Leads to a €1 billion cost saving compared to the IP over 2016–2035.

2. Indicative Plan (IP)

• Net System Cost: €4,772 million
• CAPEX: €3,888 million
• OPEX: €4,589 million
• System LCOE: €53/MWh
• Total Generation: 427,373 GWh
• Net Exports: 47% of internal demand
• Coal Consumption: 292 mt
• Key Observations:
  • Represents a "wish list" of projects proposed by the two major EPs (EPBiH and EPRS).
  • Leads to overinvestment in thermal generation, with a significant increase in export share.
  • May result in €1 billion higher costs than the BASE scenario due to overinvestment in coal.

3. RE & EE Scenario

• Net System Cost: €3,232 million
• CAPEX: €3,058 million
• OPEX: €3,956 million
• System LCOE: €41/MWh
• Total Generation: 370,134 GWh
• Net Exports: 39% of internal demand
• Coal Consumption: 250 mt
• Key Observations:
  • Reduces net system cost by €541 million (excluding EE investment).
  • Boosts export volume to 39%.
  • Reduces generation investment by €393 million (excluding EE investment).
  • Still fails to meet carbon and local emissions targets.

4. Stringent CO₂ Limit + Local Pollutants

• Net System Cost: €4,200 million
• CAPEX: €2,235 million
• OPEX: €3,010 million
• System LCOE: €40/MWh
• Total Generation: 291,216 GWh
• Net Exports: 0% of internal demand
• Coal Consumption: 161 mt
• Key Observations:
  • Reduces coal projects to just one.
  • Requires significantly more hydro capacity.
  • Eliminates export volume, reducing it to 0% in the most stringent scenario.
  • Does not include gas-based generation.

5. Relaxed CO₂ Limit + Local Pollutants

• Net System Cost: €3,994 million
• CAPEX: €2,760 million
• OPEX: €3,254 million
• System LCOE: €39/MWh
• Total Generation: 315,522 GWh
• Net Exports: 8% of internal demand
• Coal Consumption: 176 mt
• Key Observations:
  • Reduces coal projects to two.
  • Still requires more hydro capacity than coal.
  • Export volume drops to 8% of internal demand.

6. Stringent CO₂ Limit + Local Pollutants + EE

• Net System Cost: €3,433 million
• CAPEX: €2,235 million
• OPEX: €3,010 million
• System LCOE: €38/MWh
• Total Generation: 291,216 GWh
• Net Exports: 9% of internal demand
• Coal Consumption: 161 mt
• Key Observations:
  • Further reduces coal projects to one.
  • Incorporates energy efficiency, leading to lower system costs and higher export share.
  • Still does not include gas-based generation.

Key Insights and Recommendations

• Significant Investment Opportunity: BiH has the potential to invest over €3 billion in new power plants over the next two decades to meet domestic demand and export goals.
• Economic Risks of Coal Projects: Even with a low PPA price of €55–60/MWh, coal projects may become uneconomic, leading to a higher reliance on imports and increased costs.
• Need for Emissions Control: Installing local emissions control equipment is economically beneficial, with potential savings of up to €1,024 million by 2030.
• Renewables and Energy Efficiency: Both renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) projects offer substantial economic benefits, including reduced OPEX and increased exports.
• Hydro Development: Hydro capacity is essential for meeting emission targets and reducing reliance on coal.
• Policy Integration: A coherent national energy plan is needed to integrate individual project plans and policy objectives.
• Planning Framework: A decision-making framework that includes all stakeholders and policy constraints is crucial for sustainable and efficient energy planning.
• Continued Planning Efforts: The planning process should continue, with enhanced data and tools to support decision-making.

Conclusion

The analysis highlights the need for a strategic, integrated approach to power sector development in BiH. It underscores the importance of balancing economic growth, environmental sustainability, and energy security. The report recommends a re-evaluation of the current Indicative Plan to align with least-cost and policy-constrained scenarios, emphasizing the role of renewables, energy efficiency, and emissions control in achieving long-term energy goals.