2010年-世界发展银行全球_Agricultural_Sector_Policy_Note_for_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina___Trade_and_Integration_Policy_Notes_47页_1mb

Agricultural Sector Policy Note for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Executive Summary

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) has a small but significant agricultural sector that contributes to the economy and provides employment, particularly in rural areas. Despite favorable climate conditions and relatively low factor prices, the sector faces several challenges that limit its competitiveness and growth potential.

Core Content

• Economic Role: The agriculture sector accounts for about 9.8% of BH's GDP in 2007, down from 15.1% in 1999. It remains a major employer, with 20.6% of the labor force engaged in the sector, though this figure is likely an underestimate due to the informal economy.
• Poverty: Poverty is predominantly a rural phenomenon, with over 53% of the population and nearly 80% of the poor residing in rural areas. Rural areas also have lower education levels and larger households, which are associated with higher poverty rates.
• Trade Deficit: The agri-food trade deficit has grown over the years, increasing by over 10% between 2003 and 2007. This is due to rising imports and relatively stable exports, with imports growing faster than exports.
• Comparative Advantage: BH has a comparative advantage in certain agricultural products due to favorable land and labor prices, good climate, and strategic location. Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) estimates show that these products are more efficient to produce domestically than in other regions.

Main Opportunities

• Growing Demand: As incomes rise, consumer preferences are shifting towards higher-value foods such as fruits, vegetables, and animal products, creating new market opportunities.
• Climate Advantages: BH has a longer growing season and relatively low shipping costs to Western Europe, which can be leveraged for early-season agricultural exports.
• Geographic Position: The country's location in the heart of Europe allows it to benefit from trade agreements and access to Western European markets.
• Potential for Organic and Niche Products: BH is well-positioned to produce organic and niche products due to its natural resources and labor availability, as well as proximity to the EU market.

Key Challenges

• Input and Output Market Constraints: Farmers in BH pay higher input prices and receive lower output prices compared to neighboring markets. This is due to a lack of competition in input markets and limited post-harvest infrastructure.
• Institutional Weaknesses: The absence of EU-compliant food safety institutions and regulatory frameworks hampers BH's ability to access EU markets. Even private standards may not be sufficient without these public institutions.
• Low Agricultural Productivity: Agricultural yields and labor productivity in BH are significantly lower than in Southern Europe, with per-hectare vegetable yields being only one-fifth of those in Southern Europe.
• Fragmented Land Ownership: Small, fragmented farms (average size 2 hectares, subdivided into 6–8 plots) hinder productivity and investment in modern agricultural practices. Land registration and transaction processes are inefficient and costly.
• Climate Change Impact: Climate projections indicate a warmer and drier BH, which threatens agricultural productivity and sustainability. Current institutional structures are not equipped to handle these changes, leading to an "adaptation deficit."

Constraints to Growth and Competitiveness

• Market Failures: Limited bargaining power, fragmented supply chains, and poor post-harvest facilities reduce output prices and competitiveness.
• High Input Costs: Reliance on a few dominant input traders and highly regulated import markets contribute to high input prices.
• Informal Economy: A significant portion of the labor force is engaged in the informal sector, which limits the ability of the sector to grow and modernize.
• Limited Public Spending: Agricultural spending in BH is only about 2% of total public spending, far below the 6–8% in developed countries and 3–5% in developing countries. Most of this spending is directed towards direct production subsidies rather than public goods such as research and extension services.

Key Public Policy Actions

• Shift Agricultural Expenditures: Redirect public spending from direct production subsidies to investment in public goods like research, education, and market infrastructure.
• Develop EU-Compliant Institutions: Establish food safety and regulatory frameworks that meet EU standards to improve access to EU markets.
• Improve Land Markets: Implement land consolidation and market-based programs to improve land registration and transaction processes.
• Enhance Input Markets: Formalize input markets, improve access to seeds, fertilizers, and pest management, and reduce import regulations.
• Climate Adaptation: Integrate climate change adaptation and environmental sustainability into agricultural policies and programs. Develop a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan for the sector.
• Support Modernization: Encourage vertical and horizontal integration among farmers, processors, and retailers to improve quality standards and reduce costs.

Conclusion

To enhance competitiveness and growth, BH must address institutional weaknesses, improve land and input markets, and shift public spending towards sustainable and productive investments. The country's potential to benefit from EU trade agreements and its natural advantages can be realized only through comprehensive reforms.