2009年-世界发展银行全球_Least_Cost_Electricity_Master_Plan_Djibouti___Volume_1_Main_Report_213页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Least Cost Electricity Master Plan, Djibouti

Core Content

This report outlines the Least Cost Electricity Master Plan for Djibouti, focusing on the development of the country's electric generation, transmission, and distribution systems over the next 25 years. It is prepared by Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) for the World Bank and includes a detailed analysis of current and future electricity needs, considering Djibouti's economic and demographic trends, existing infrastructure, and potential for renewable energy sources.

Main Objectives

To define a least-cost investment program for the development of Djibouti's electricity generation, transmission, and distribution systems for the next 25 years.
To provide EdD (Electricité de Djibouti) and the Government of Djibouti (GoD) with a comprehensive report, model, and database for further development and updates of the plan.
To equip EdD and the Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources (MENR) with basic planning tools to update key components of the master plan as needed.

Key Information

Country Background

Location: Djibouti is in the Horn of Africa, bordered by Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
Geography: Predominantly desert with a coastal plain, plateau, and central mountains.
Population: Approximately 850,000, with 80% living in urban areas, mainly in Djibouti City.
Economy: Service sector dominates, driven by its strategic location near the Red Sea and key trade routes. Limited agricultural and industrial activity.
Electricity Access: About 50% of the population has access to electricity, with significant disparities between urban and rural areas.
Electricity System: EdD is the national utility, responsible for generation, distribution, and sales. The system relies heavily on heavy fuel oil (HFO) and diesel due to the lack of hydroelectric potential.

Current Electricity System

Installed Capacity: 95 MW from main power plants (Boulaos and Marabout), plus 7.3 MW from smaller diesel stations in the north and south.
Average Available Capacity: 55 MW in 2006, which dropped to below demand levels.
Transmission System: Limited to a 63 kV interconnector between Marabout and Boulaos, and 20 kV circuits to Arta and between Dikhil and Ali Sabieh.
Distribution System: Radial 20 kV circuits from main substations, with most customers served at low voltage (LV).
Electricity Sales: 252 GWh in 2008, with a peak demand of 56.9 MW, mainly from domestic and service sectors.

Demand Forecast

Methodology: Based on econometric regression analysis using historical data and economic drivers.
Key Assumptions: Economic growth, population trends, and historical consumption patterns.
Consumer Categories: Urban, rural, industrial, and commercial.
Forecasting Technique: PB's in-house RALF (Regression Analysis Load Forecast) model.
Sales Forecast: Projected for each consumer category, converted into energy and peak demand forecasts.
Demand Side Management (DSM): Techniques to manage demand and improve efficiency.

Existing and Committed Power System

Power Plants: Boulaos (82.8 MW), Marabout (14.4 MW), and smaller diesel stations.
Transmission Network: 63 kV underground cable and 20 kV circuits.
Distribution Network: 279 distribution substations, with energy losses estimated at around 15%.
Future Integration: Expected interconnector with Ethiopia in 2011 to improve energy access and trade.

Future Development Options

Renewable Resources:
- Geothermal: Significant potential, but further exploration and testing are needed. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Reykjavik Energy Invest Ltd (REI) has been signed.
- Wind: Promising short- and medium-term opportunities, with partial data available for 10 sites.
Thermal Resources: Continued reliance on HFO and diesel, leading to high production costs.

Generation Planning

Methodology: Based on least cost generation expansion principles.
Assumptions: Economic growth, demand forecasts, and fuel cost trends.
Scenarios: Multiple generation expansion scenarios are analyzed to identify the most cost-effective path.
Reference Case: The least cost generation expansion plan is outlined, focusing on increasing capacity to meet demand.
Sensitivities: Analysis of how changes in parameters like fuel prices and economic growth affect the generation plan.
Environmental Considerations: Emphasis on renewable energy sources to reduce environmental impact.

Transmission Planning

Model and Criteria: Based on load flow and transient stability studies.
Network Expansion: Planned for the period 2009–2035, with focus on surge impedance loading (SIL) and loss of load expectation (LOLE).
Interconnector: Expected to enhance regional energy trade and reduce demand volatility.

Distribution Planning

Performance: Current distribution system is underperforming due to high losses and outdated infrastructure.
Design Considerations: Focus on optimum conductor size, network configuration, and cost efficiency.
Losses: Estimated at 15%, with efforts to reduce them through improved infrastructure.

Isolated Systems

Tadjoura and Obock: These isolated areas have small diesel generators, contributing to the total capacity of 7.3 MW.
Expansion Plan: Includes improvements to the distribution network and transmission infrastructure.

Conclusions

Future Development Options: Emphasize renewable energy (geothermal and wind) and interconnection with Ethiopia.
Generation Plan: A least cost generation expansion plan is proposed to meet increasing demand.
Transmission Plan: Expansion is necessary to support growth and improve reliability.
Distribution Plan: Modernization is required to reduce losses and ensure efficient service.
Isolated Systems: Need for improved infrastructure to connect them to the main grid.
Investment Plan: Schedules for investment in generation, transmission, and distribution systems are outlined to achieve the least cost expansion.

Structure of the Report

The report is divided into two volumes:
- Volume 1: Main Report, covering 10 sections.
- Volume 2: Appendices, including detailed data and supporting models.