2007年-世界发展银行全球_Review_of_the_Master_Plan_for_Gas_Development_in_Southern_Vietnam_69页_1mb

Summary of Vietnam: Review of Gas Master Plan

1. Introduction

This report, prepared by Economic Consulting Associates for the World Bank, reviews the Gas Master Plan (GMP) for Southern Vietnam (2006–2015, with an orientation to 2020). The review aims to assess the realism, resource efficiency, and sustainability of the GMP, while identifying constraints, opportunities, and potential shortcomings. The report is an updated version of an Inception Report and includes comments from the World Bank and the Ministry of Industry (MOI).

The GMP is structured into six main chapters, with Chapter I (Overview) not reviewed in this report. The review focuses on Chapters II through VII, covering gas supply sources, consumption market, supply-demand balance, infrastructure development, and implementation strategy.

2. Summary of Major Comments

2.1 Economic Analysis to Support Proposals

• The GMP lacks detailed economic analysis to justify the selection of development options, particularly on the supply and demand sides.
• There is no apparent comparison of the economic value of gas to different users with alternative fuels or netting back from output prices.
• The economic benefits of allocating gas to lower-value uses are not clearly estimated.
• The relative costs of new fields, imports, and alternate pipeline development plans are not provided.
• The cost of gas supply and its implications for the economic benefits of different uses remain unclear, making it difficult to evaluate if the allocation maximises benefits for Vietnam.

2.2 Remove Inconsistencies in the GMP and with the PMP

• There is ambiguity about whether the GMP's demand forecasts are constrained by supply limitations or not.
• The GMP includes the PMP as an input but uses a different development plan, leading to inconsistencies.
• The PMP shows a slower development programme and lower gas demand than the GMP, particularly up to 2015, creating a significant supply shortfall in the GMP's projections.

2.3 Implementation Strategy

• The GMP outlines PV's involvement in all stages of the gas value chain, including major investments in gas users such as power and fertiliser plants.
• This contradicts the assumption in the financing plan that major private investment will be forthcoming, which is not discussed.
• The GMP does not address whether PV's involvement should be restricted to non-commercial or strategically significant projects.
• The pricing strategy is unclear, with conflicting proposals of cost-based regulated prices, market pricing, and administratively determined preferential prices for some users.
• This lack of clarity makes it difficult to assess future gas price development, industry self-financing ability, and the implications for gas demand growth.

2.4 Presentational Issues

• The GMP's purpose is not clearly defined, leading to confusion about its role in the development process.
• It is unclear whether the GMP is intended to:
  • Set out PV's proposed investment programme for government approval.
  • Provide information on future gas supply costs and availability for investment decisions.
  • Help determine the strategy for the gas sector, including organisational and regulatory arrangements.
• The report recommends a clear statement of the GMP's intended use and the guiding documents it complies with.
• The presentation could be improved with the use of maps to illustrate current and future pipeline routes and demand centres.

3. Gas Supply Sources

3.1 Supply Scenarios

• The GMP outlines four supply scenarios:
  • Firm: Only currently producing fields.
  • Probable: Fields currently producing or with development plans.
  • Possible: All probable fields plus newly discovered ones without development plans.
  • Potential: Possible fields plus additional reserves in specific basins and assumed higher recoverable reserves in the White Lion field.
• The supply scenarios are detailed in Table 1 and summarised in Table 2 and Figure 1.
• The report highlights that the GMP does not clearly distinguish between associated and non-associated gas, which could affect the interpretation of the data.

3.2 Potential Reserves

• The GMP provides potential reserve estimates for various fields, including low, average, and high cases.
• These estimates are based on different assumptions about recoverable reserves and their exploitation potential.
• The report notes that the actual recoverable reserves may differ from the potential ones, depending on current technologies and geological conditions.

3.3 Longer-Term Developments

• The GMP includes projections for gas supply up to 2025, with the potential scenario considered as a base case.
• The greatest uncertainty is associated with the White Lion field, where recoverable reserves are estimated to be between 25.5 bcm and 68.9 bcm.

3.4 Costs

• The report finds that the GMP does not provide sufficient cost information for gas supply from new fields and imports.
• It also lacks a clear comparison of the costs of different pipeline development plans and the relative cost-effectiveness of using pipelines versus converting gas to electricity and transporting via electricity transmission lines.

3.5 Summary

• The GMP needs to provide more detailed economic analysis to justify development options.
• The lack of cost information and the inconsistencies between the GMP and PMP hinder the assessment of the plan's realism and efficiency.
• The implementation strategy and pricing mechanism need clarification to ensure the sustainability and viability of the gas sector.

4. Gas Consumption Market

• The GMP outlines the gas consumption market, including power, fertiliser and chemicals, industrial, and CNG sectors.
• The report finds that the integration between the Power Master Plan (PMP) and GMP is unclear.
• The demand-side constraints are not well addressed, and the economic value of gas in different uses is not compared with alternative fuels.
• The report suggests that the GMP should provide more detailed analysis of the consumption market and its relationship with the supply side.

5. Gas Supply-Demand Balance

• The GMP outlines different supply cases for the South-East and South-West areas.
• The report highlights that the GMP's supply projections may not be realistic due to the lack of cost analysis and the potential for supply shortfalls.
• The GMP does not provide a clear strategy for meeting supply shortfalls, which could affect the reliability of the gas supply.
• The report recommends a more detailed analysis of the supply-demand balance and a clearer strategy for addressing shortfalls.

6. Gas Infrastructure Development and Investment Plan

• The GMP includes an infrastructure development plan and an investment plan.
• The investment plan covers gas resources, collection and transmission, processing and distribution, and other gas users.
• The report finds that the GMP does not provide sufficient information on the costs of infrastructure development.
• A clear financing plan is needed to assess the economic viability of the proposed infrastructure projects.

7. Implementation

• The GMP outlines an implementation strategy that assumes PV's involvement in all stages of the gas value chain.
• The report questions whether this strategy is compatible with the assumption of major private investment.
• The GMP lacks a clear pricing strategy, which affects the ability to predict future gas prices and the development of gas demand.
• Environmental impacts are not discussed in the main text of the GMP, which is a significant omission.

8. Conclusion

• The GMP is a well-researched document but requires further improvements to clarify and justify its proposals.
• The report recommends the inclusion of economic analysis, the removal of inconsistencies, and the clarification of the implementation strategy and pricing mechanism.
• The GMP should also address environmental impacts and provide more detailed information on gas supply costs and availability.
• The report suggests that the GMP's purpose should be clearly defined to avoid confusion and ensure that it aligns with other government strategies.