2009年-世界发展银行全球_Least_Cost_Electricity_Master_Plan_Djibouti___Volume_2_Appendices_172页_7mb

Summary of the Least Cost Electricity Master Plan, Djibouti

Core Content

This document outlines the Least Cost Electricity Master Plan for Djibouti, a comprehensive study aimed at developing a long-term, integrated, and cost-effective strategy for the country's electricity generation, transmission, and distribution systems. The study is conducted by Parsons Brinckerhoff for the World Bank and focuses on addressing the challenges of Djibouti's electricity sector, including high costs, low access, and the need for better planning and coordination.

Main Objectives

• Define a least-cost investment program for the development of Djibouti's electricity generation, transmission, and distribution systems over the next 25 years.
• Provide EDD and the Government of Djibouti with a comprehensive report, model, and database to support future system development and plan updates.
• Equip EDD and the Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources with basic planning tools and capacity to update the master plan as needed.

Key Points of the Study

I. Context of the Assignment

• High electricity costs: Djibouti has among the highest electricity tariffs in Africa, due to reliance on imported diesel and inefficiencies in the system.
• Financial challenges: EDD has been experiencing negative net profits since 2004, largely due to high fuel costs and operational inefficiencies.
• Low electrification rate: Only about 50% of the population is electrified, with access mainly limited to urban areas and privileged groups.
• Small and outdated system: The current transmission and distribution infrastructure is limited, with a total of about 250 km of medium-voltage lines and 350 km of distribution network, which is mostly airborne and suffers from high losses.
• Environmental impact: Over 90% of the electrified population use kerosene or fuel wood for cooking, contributing to indoor air pollution and health issues.
• Strong demand growth: Increased foreign investment and economic development are driving higher electricity demand, especially in the port, industrial, and commercial sectors.
• Resource potential: Djibouti has promising wind and geothermal resources, with preliminary data and some feasibility studies available. The country is also considering interconnection with Ethiopia and solar as potential energy sources.

II. Scope of Services

The study involves the following key activities:

• Data Collection and Planning Criteria:

  • Compilation of existing data and reports.
  • Review of previous studies and current energy resources.
  • Evaluation of demand-side management opportunities.
  • Assessment of the existing power system and its technical and financial characteristics.

• Load Forecasting:

  • Development of realistic energy and demand projections for the next 25 years.
  • Creation of base, high, and low forecast scenarios.
  • Establishment of load curves and load-duration diagrams for both the main grid and isolated systems.
  • Focus on short-term (first 5 years) and medium/long-term (5–25 years) forecasts.

• Supply-Side Options:

  • Review and definition of generation candidates including diesel, wind, geothermal, and other technologies.
  • Assessment of technical feasibility, cost, and lead-time for each option.
  • Consideration of interconnection with Ethiopia and geothermal development with REI.
  • Evaluation of rehabilitation of existing thermal units and conversion to alternative fuels.

• Transmission and Distribution Options:

  • Comparative analysis and optimization of transmission and distribution development options.
  • Consideration of system stability, load flows, and planned rehabilitation.
  • Integration of environmental, social, and economic impacts into the analysis.

• Training:

  • 2-day training on load forecasting methodologies and generation planning.
  • 3-day training on network planning, security rules, and data requirements.
  • Training of 4 counterpart staff members from the Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources and EDD.
  • Provision of computer models, applications, and a database for future planning.

• Workshops:

  • One information dissemination workshop to present key findings to stakeholders.

Deliverables

• Inception Report: Confirming planning criteria and training arrangements.
• Technical Memorandum: Preliminary load forecast and supply-side options with assumptions.
• Interim Report: Finalized load forecast, supply-side options, and review of transmission and distribution options.
• Final Report: Comprehensive integration of all findings, including strategic investment plans and planning tools documentation.

Reporting and Validation

• The World Bank is the primary reporting entity.
• The High-Level Working Group, chaired by the Secretary General of the Ministry of Energy & Natural Resources, is involved in the process to ensure ownership and coordination.
• Key deliverables such as the Technical Memorandum and Final Report will be validated by the Working Group.

Estimated Effort

• The total estimated effort for the assignment is 6–7 man-months, including both desk and field work.

Resources Provided by the Beneficiary

• The Project Implementation Unit (UGPE) will provide transportation, office access, and basic secretarial support to the consultant.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the need for integrated resource planning, cost-efficient development, and improved coordination between the government, EDD, and other stakeholders. It aims to create a strategic, long-term plan that improves the financial performance of the electricity sector and supports sustainable development. The plan also includes training and capacity building to ensure long-term sector management and planning capability.