20240719-宝城期货-焦煤焦炭周报_观望情绪较浓_煤焦区间震荡_11页_944kb

Analysis and Summary of the "Metrizone Anthracite and Coke" Weekly Report

According to the "Metrizone Anthracite and Coke" weekly report dated July 19th, 2024:

Core Viewpoints:

1. Coke: Port Quasi-First Grade Wet Quenched Coke delivered price is 2040 yuan/ton, translating to approximately 2275 yuan/ton for February/Cookie storage costs. Supply is relatively steady as cokemakers show limited production capacity increase given current margins. Demand, however, faces headwinds from weak iron water output conditions, especially concerning profitability. The overall expectation leans weak due to demand pressure and production cutbacks but is slightly supported by low stock levels and policy expectations. The coke market exhibits a tendency for wide-range fluctuations in all-time high prices. Short-term recommendation is to adopt a观望 (cautious) approach, monitoring policy signals closely.

2. Metrizone Anthracite: Reference prices for high-quality (montan) anthracite are relatively flat, around 1910 yuan/ton for premium coal. The spot market shows a similar trend but remains cautiously optimistic. Supply has recently shown signs of improvement, although concerns surrounding long-term policy and weak industrial activity persist. Anthracite demand is weighed down by the upcoming Spring Festival and relatively lower iron water output compared to the same period last year. Despite expectations of future supply cuts due to low prices and increased coal quality requirements, high costs may also hinder active supplies. Under pressure from rising prices and expected supply constraints, demand dynamics appear stagnant recently. The anthracite market shows conflicting signals: strong long-term price anticipation versus a weak near-term reality driven by excess inventory and declining daily consumption volume by steel mills. Short-term recommendations also favor a观望 approach, with the justification that futures markets exhibit a wide-range volatile operation, potentially continuing its downward trend if further policy momentum is lacking.