2017年-FCA英国金融行为监管局_data_bulletin_issue_11_17页_729kb

Data Bulletin Summary: Trends in Regulated Mortgage Lending 2007-2016

Core Content

This Data Bulletin from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) provides an overview of trends in regulated mortgage lending in the UK from 2007 to 2016. It highlights the impact of the financial crisis and subsequent regulatory changes on the mortgage market, focusing on key metrics such as loan volumes, interest rates, loan terms, loan-to-value (LTV), and regional variations.

Main Trends in Mortgage Lending

Loan Volumes

• Overall Reduction: The number of new regulated mortgage loans fell significantly from 2.13 million in 2007 to 1.09 million in 2016, a 59% decline.
• First Time Buyers: First time buyer transactions grew strongly post-2011, reaching 312,500 in 2016, which was 7% lower than 2007 but 69% higher than 2008.
• Home Movers: Home mover volumes remained subdued, reaching 348,300 in 2016, which was 46% lower than 2007.
• Remortgagers: Remortgager changing lender volumes dropped by 71% from 2007 to 2010.

Loan Values

• Value Reduction: Total loan value fell from £292 billion in 2007 to £121 billion in 2010, a 59% decline.
• Value Increase: From 2012 onwards, values started to rise, reaching £196 billion in 2016, a 10% increase compared to 2007.
• Average Loan Value: The average loan value in 2016 was £180,000, up from £137,000 in 2007.

Mortgage Terms

• Longer Terms: The proportion of mortgages with a term longer than 25 years increased from 17% in 2007 to 39% in 2016.
• First Time Buyers: First time buyers now have the longest average mortgage terms, with 62% of their loans over 25 years and 34% over 30 years. The most common term for first time buyers is now 35 years.
• Impact of Longer Terms: While longer terms make monthly payments more affordable, they result in higher cumulative interest payments over the life of the loan.

Interest Rates

• Fixed Rate Popularity: Fixed rate mortgages rose in popularity from 73% in 2007 to 89% in 2016, with 92% of new mortgages being fixed rate in early 2017.
• Variable Rate Loans: The proportion of outstanding mortgage balances on variable rates was 42% at the end of 2016, down from higher levels in previous years.

Loan to Value (LTV)

• High LTV Loans: High LTV (over 90%) loans fell dramatically post-crisis, from 290,000 in 2007 to 101,000 in 2016 (9% of total).
• Interest-Only Loans: Interest-only loans declined from 32% in 2007 to 4% in 2016 due to regulatory changes requiring credible repayment strategies.

Income Verification

• Decline in Unverified Income: Mortgages without borrower income verification dropped from 49% in 2007 to 2% in 2016, reflecting stricter responsible lending rules.

Loan to Income (LTI) Ratios

• Moderate Increase: LTI ratios increased gradually, from 28% in 2007 to 37% in 2016, with 6% of loans having an LTI multiple over 4.5 in 2016.
• Regional Differences: First time buyers typically had higher LTI ratios than other borrower types.

Regional Comparisons

• Activity Levels: The South West and East Midlands had the highest relative mortgage activity in 2016, while the South East and Northern Ireland had the lowest.
• New Build Loans: Around 15% of home purchase loans in 2016 were for new build properties. Northern Ireland and the North East had the highest proportion, with over 20% of loans being for new builds.
• First Time Buyers by Region:
  • Greater London: Only 10% of first time buyers were aged 18–25 in 2016, down from 17% in 2007.
  • North East and Yorkshire and Humber: These regions had the highest proportion of first time buyers aged 18–25 in 2016 (29%).

Regulatory Environment

• Responsible Lending Rules: Strengthened in April 2014 as part of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR), requiring lenders to assess borrower affordability and repayment strategy.
• Loan-to-Income Limits: The FPC recommended a 15% cap on mortgage loans with LTI multiples of 4.5 or more.
• Second Charge Mortgages: Became regulated under the Mortgage Credit Directive in March 2016.
• Market Study: The FCA launched a market study on mortgage competition in December 2016, with an interim report expected in Spring 2018.

Key Initiatives for First Time Buyers

• Help to Buy Scheme: Launched in April 2013, it provided government-backed mortgages with 5% deposits and 20% equity loans (or 40% in London).
• Shared Ownership Mortgages: These were included in the FCA's data since 2015, with 14,500 first time buyer loans in 2016 (5% of total), averaging £92,500.
• Regional Take-Up: Scotland and the North West had the highest take-up of the Help to Buy scheme in 2016.

Summary of Changes

Next Steps and Additional Resources

• Future Bulletins: The FCA aims to provide more relevant data in future issues and encourages feedback at fcadataandanalysis@fca.org.uk.
• Subscription: Interested parties can subscribe to the Data Bulletin via the FCA website.
• Data Sources:
  • PSD (Product Sales Data): Quarterly data on new regulated mortgage contracts.
  • MLAR (Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return): Quarterly firm-level data, published jointly with the Bank of England.
• Publications:
  • MLAR Statistics: Latest data up to Q2 2017 available.
  • PSD Tables: Latest data for Q2 2017 published.
  • Mortgage Market Study: Interim report due in Spring 2018.
  • Sector Views: Available on the FCA website for a broader view of the financial sector.

Conclusion

The mortgage market has undergone significant transformation since the 2007 financial crisis, marked by a decline in lending volumes and values, a shift toward fixed rate mortgages, and a focus on responsible lending practices. First time buyers have shown resilience, with a recovery in activity post-2011, but they remain a smaller proportion of the market than in 2007. Regional differences persist, with the South West and East Midlands being the most active, and the North East and Northern Ireland showing the strongest growth in first time buyer volumes. The FCA continues to monitor these trends and will provide further insights in upcoming reports.