2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Vade_Mecum_for_the_Next_Enlargements_of_the_European_Union_4页_85kb

Vade Mecum for the Next Enlargements of the European Union - Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the European Council's decisions regarding the next phases of the European Union's enlargement process, focusing on Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey, while also touching on Ukraine and the broader European Neighbourhood Policy. It emphasizes the evolving nature of EU enlargement criteria and the political and legal implications of these decisions.

Main Points

1. Bulgaria and Romania

• Both countries completed formal accession negotiations on 14 December 2004.
• They are expected to sign the Treaties of Accession in April 2005 and join the EU in January 2007.
• The EU introduced safeguard clauses, allowing protective measures in areas like the internal market and justice if obligations are not met.
• Romania faced criticism for not fully addressing political and governance issues, despite the successful presidential election.

2. Croatia

• Negotiations are set to begin on 17 March 2005, but only if Croatia cooperates fully with the ICTY and locates General Gotovina, a key war crimes suspect.
• There are ongoing uncertainties about Gotovina's location, with rumors suggesting he might be in France.

3. Turkey

• Accession negotiations are scheduled to open on 3 October 2005, but with several preconditions.
• Turkey must implement six specific laws:
  • Law on associations
  • New penal code
  • Law on intermediate courts of appeal
  • Code on criminal procedure
  • Legislation to establish judicial police
  • Law on execution of punishments
• The EU also seeks Turkey's agreement to sign a Protocol on the customs union with Cyprus, which is a key issue for the EU due to the Cyprus dispute.
• The Council introduced conditions for possible suspension of negotiations, transitional arrangements, and alternative solutions, which raise concerns about "second-class membership" and asymmetrical integration.

4. Ukraine

• The European Council expressed support for Ukraine's peaceful resolution of the political crisis and acknowledged its European aspirations.
• Ukraine's leader, Yushchenko, outlined a four-stage European vision, which includes eventual EU membership.
• The Council's language suggested a shift in EU discourse, moving from negative remarks about Eastern neighbors to a more open stance, although accession remains the ultimate goal.
• The timing of the Ukrainian and Romanian elections was seen as symbolically linked, suggesting potential for a domino effect of democratic change in the region.

Key Information

• The EU is not guaranteeing the outcome of negotiations, indicating an open-ended process.
• The introduction of transitional arrangements and safeguard clauses reflects institutional and public unease about integrating Turkey, which is a large and culturally distinct country.
• The Stratagen research programme of CEPS is aimed at defining a vision for the European Neighbourhood, including the Arab/Muslim world, and is structured around three geographic regions:
  • Northern neighbourhood: CIS states
  • Southern neighbourhood: Mediterranean and BMENA
  • EU-Russian relations
• The programme involves multi-disciplinary research and is led by Michael Emerson and Daniel Gros.
• It is supported by the Open Society Institute and the Compagnia di San Paolo.

Implications

• The EU's enlargement strategy is evolving to include more flexible integration paths, which may lead to asymmetric membership.
• The Copenhagen criteria are being interpreted in a lenient and conditional manner, potentially setting a precedent for other candidate states.
• The political and institutional challenges for the EU include managing public opinion, demographic changes, and multicultural integration.
• The document suggests that regime change and democratic movements in Eastern Europe may continue, with Ukraine and Romania as potential catalysts.
• The EU is also preparing for alternative arrangements such as the "privileged partnership", which may serve as a non-membership option for some countries.

Conclusion

The European Council's decisions mark a significant shift in the EU's enlargement policy, introducing conditional and transitional arrangements that may redefine the nature of EU membership. These decisions have implications not only for the immediate candidates but also for the future of the EU's relationship with its neighbors, particularly in the context of democratic transitions and institutional capacity.