20151130-DBS_Group-HK_Property_32页_1mb

报告摘要

Market Rebound: The Central office market has shown signs of recovery, with historically low vacancy rates driving rental growth.
Rental Growth: Rental rates increased by 5.6% quarter-over-quarter in 2Q15 and 3.5% in 3Q15, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
Leasing Activities: The increase in leasing activity since 2Q15 was fueled by the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Mutual Fund Recognition.
Vacancy Trends: Citibank Plaza reduced its vacancy from ~25% in Dec-14 to ~90%, while Hongkong Land's portfolio tightened from 5.4% to 3.7% as of Sep-15. Major Grade A office buildings like Cheung Kong Center, One and Two IFC are almost fully let, leading to an overall vacancy rate drop from 3.7% to 1.2% as of Oct-15.
Investment Activity: The investment market has heated up since 3Q15, with notable transactions such as Emperor International's acquisition of Wincome Centre for HK$1.3bn or HK$33,310psf, the largest en-bloc office deal in Central YTD.
Near-Term Supply: Three major redevelopment projects—Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, Chinachem Central I & II—are expected to add 0.29msf of office space. The market is expected to absorb this supply easily if current net take-up continues.

Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower: Completed in 2H15, retains low-zone for self-use and is preleasing high-zone with indicative unit rents of HK$85-100psf.
Chinachem Central I & II: Two office buildings that are expected to add 0.29msf of office space.
Wincome Centre: Acquired by Emperor International, located at the footstep of Hong Kong Station, comprising 13-story office premises and 3-storey retail space let to DBS Bank.
Other Projects: HK Exchanges sold 17/F Worldwide House for HK$509m or HK$30,500psf, which also attracted attention.

Company	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Recommendation	PE FY15 x	PE FY16 x	Jun-16 NAV (HK$)	Discount to NAV (%)	Yield FY15 (%)	Yield FY16 (%)
Cheung Kong Property	1113 HK	Dec	196	50.80	69.45	Buy	12.2	10.8	99.22	(49)	2.7	2.9
Henderson Land	12 HK	Dec	159	48.00	50.75	Hold	16.6	15.7	78.10	(39)	2.4	2.4
K Wah Int'l	173 HK	Dec	10	3.38	4.00	Buy	14.9	7.7	9.99	(66)	4.4	4.4
Kerry Props	683 HK	Dec	32	22.20	28.95	Buy	8.6	8.3	72.34	(69)	3.6	3.8
Lai Sun Dev	488 HK	Jul	2	0.119	0.216	Buy	8.2	9.1	0.862	(86)	2.1	2.1
MTR Corp	66 HK	Dec	211	36.00	35.95	Hold	19.2	23.8	42.01	(14)	2.9	2.9
New World Dev	17 HK	Jun	69	7.70	10.21	Buy	10.0	9.1	18.57	(59)	5.5	5.5
Sino Land	83 HK	Jun	69	11.34	13.80	Buy	12.9	12.9	23.01	(51)	4.4	4.4
SHKP	16 HK	Jun	279	96.30	136.70	Buy	13.7	11.0	195.3	(51)	3.5	3.5
Tai Cheung	88 HK	Mar	4	6.29	8.51	Buy	7.0	10.0	18.9	(67)	4.8	4.8
Wheelock & Co.	20 HK	Dec	70	34.25	40.50	Buy	6.9	6.7	53.99	(37)	3.4	3.4
Wing Tai Properties	369 HK	Dec	6	4.36	5.14	Buy	14.3	18.2	14.69	(70)	3.1	3.1

Company	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$bn)	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Recommendation	PE FY15 x	PE FY16 x	Jun-16 NAV (HK$)	Discount to NAV (%)	Yield FY15 (%)	Yield FY16 (%)
Great Eagle	41 HK	Dec	17	24.90	28.60	Hold	10.4	10.5	71.5	(65)	3.0	3.0
Hang Lung Props	101 HK	Dec	82	18.32	25.05	Buy	14.3	13.9	38.6	(52)	4.1	4.1
HK Land	HKL SP	Dec	17	7.20	9.32	Buy	18.8	18.5	11.6	(38)	2.6	2.6
Hysan Dev	14 HK	Dec	35	32.60	39.40	Buy	15.0	14.7	65.7	(50)	3.9	4.0
Swire Props	1972 HK	Dec	135	23.05	28.20	Buy	17.6	17.8	40.3	(43)	2.9	2.9
Wharf	4 HK	Dec	135	44.60	53.00	Buy	12.0	10.9	88.3	(49)	4.3	4.6

REIT	Code	FYE	Mkt Cap (HK$m)	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Recommendation	Yield FY14A (%)	Yield FY15F (%)	Yield FY16F (%)	Price/BV (x)	Gearing Ratio (%)
Champion REIT*	2778 HK	Dec	22,856	3.96	4.78	Buy	5.1	4.9	5.6	0.48	22.6
Fortune REIT*	778 HK	Dec	14,714	7.80	9.20	Buy	5.3	6.0	6.1	0.62	30.6
Hui Xian REIT@^	87001 HK	Dec	17,912	3.33	n.a.	NR	8.0	8.3	8.6	0.63	17.6
Jinmao Investments*	6139 HK	Dec	9,160	4.58	5.49	Buy	10.5	9.8	9.0	1.01	71.0
Langham Hospitality^	1270 HK	Dec	5,720	2.80	n.a.	NR	10.6	8.6	8.6	0.54	38.7
New Century REIT^	1275 HK	Dec	2,715	2.89	n.a.	NR	11.3	n.a.	n.a.	0.85	33.0
Prosperity REIT*	808 HK	Dec	4,066	2.83	3.06	Buy	5.8	6.1	6.2	0.58	27.6
Regal REIT^	1881 HK	Dec	6,352	1.95	n.a.	NR	8.3	8.3	8.7	0.46	36.6
Spring REIT^	1426 HK	Dec	3,450	3.08	n.a.	NR	9.1	8.8	8.8	0.49	33.5
Sunlight REIT*	435 HK	Jun	6,272	3.83	4.26	Buy	5.2	5.7	5.8	0.51	23.3
Link REIT*	823 HK	Mar	106,204	47.15	47.80	Buy	3.5	3.9	4.3	0.87	16.9
Yuexiu REIT	405 HK	Dec	11,598	4.10	n.a.	NR	6.8	7.6	7.8	0.69	32.0

Company	High Price (HK$)	Low Price (HK$)	P/E FY15F	Discount to NAV (%)	Price/NAV (%)	Yield FY15 (%)	Yield FY16 (%)
Cheung Kong Property	50.80	15.0	12.2	-34%	12.1	2.7	2.9
Henderson Land	48.00	17.8	16.6	-31%	15.9	2.4	2.4
K Wah Int'l	3.38	15.8	14.9	-63%	13.3	4.4	4.4
Kerry Properties	22.20	9.1	8.6	-66%	8.2	3.6	3.8
Lai Sun Dev	0.119	10.6	8.2	-81%	8.2	2.1	2.1
MTR Corp	36.00	19.8	19.2	-7%	17.8	2.9	2.9
New World Dev	7.70	11.0	10.0	-51%	9.6	5.5	5.5
Sino Land	11.34	14.8	12.9	-44%	12.5	4.4	4.4
SHKP	96.30	15.2	13.7	-44%	13.4	3.5	3.5
Tai Cheung	6.29	7.2	7.0	-66%	6.7	4.8	4.8
Wheelock & Co.	34.25	7.4	6.9	-21%	6.7	3.4	3.4
Wing Tai Properties	4.36	14.7	14.3	-69%	13.7	3.1	3.1

Project	Location	Developer	Total Units	Units Sold	% Sold	ASP (HK$psf)
Bloomsway	Tuen Mun	Kerry Properties	1,100	260	24%	11,000
Capri	Tseung Kwan O	Wheelock	428	382	89%	13,700
South Coast	Aberdeen	Kowloon Development	150	56	37%	17,000
The Zutten	To Kwa Wan	Henderson Land	300	61	20%	15,500
Yuccie Square	Yuen Long	Cheung Kong Property	1,129	451	40%	12,300

Project	Location	Developer	No. of Units
118-122 Queen's Road West	Sai Ying Pun	Private developer	24
3 JULIA AVENUE	Ho Man Tin	Phoenix Property Investors	67
High One Grand	Sham Shui Po	Henderson Land	110
The Visionary	Tung Chung	Nan Fung	1,419

Project	Developer	Location	No. of Units
Marina South	COLI	HK	114
Capri	Wheelock	NT	428
The Bloomsway	Kerry Properties	NT	1,100
Yuccie Square	CK Property	NT	1,129
La Mansion	CK Property	NT	41

Project	Developer	Location	No. of Units
SIL 634	Nan Fung Group	HK	470
KIL 11227	Kerry Properties	Kln	1,425
KIL11228	Wheelock	Kln	561
Phase 2 of Ultima Development	SHKP	Kln	271
One Kai Tak 1H2	COLI	Kln	624
One Kai Tak 1H1	COLI	Kln	545
NKIL 6515 (Subsidised flats)	URA	Kln	338
NKIL 6515	URA	Kln	146
The Zumurud	CK Property	Kln	228
The Grampian	Hanison	Kln	14
No.62 Begonia Road	COLI	Kln	10
NKIL 6537	HKR/Nan Fung	Kln	155
Mount Pavilia	New World Dev	NT	680
Lot 1949 in DD 221	Sino Land	NT	297
STTL 577	Hong Kong Housing Society	NT	1,020
Double Cove Summit	Henderson Land	NT	176
STTL 563	HKR/Nan Fung	NT	61
TKOTL 112	Wheelock	NT	800
TMTL 427	Wheelock	NT	460
8 Kwun Fat Street	Emperor International	NT	14
Grand YOHO Development Ph1	SHKP	NT	1,114
The Spectra Development	Sino land/K Wah	NT	912
Twin Regency	SHKP	NT	523