世界贸易数据2023-138页_3mb

World Trade Statistical Review 2023 Summary

Core Content

The World Trade Statistical Review 2023 provides a comprehensive analysis of global trade trends in 2022 and the early part of 2023, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities in the international trade landscape.

Main Points

Global Trade Overview

• World trade in 2022 saw a 13% increase in value compared to 2021, with services trade growing 15% and goods trade slightly less.
• Services trade recovered more quickly than goods trade, with international travel rebounding 70% year-on-year after pandemic restrictions were lifted.
• Digitally delivered services (e.g., streaming, remote consulting) accounted for 54% of global services exports in 2022, growing 44% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• Intra-regional trade in digitally delivered services was significant, especially in Asia (43.2%), North America (18.2%), and Europe (25.8% in transport services).
• Africa had a 3.3% share of intra-regional digitally delivered services in 2021, lagging behind other regions.

Merchandise Trade

• World merchandise trade volume grew by 2.7% in 2022, well below the 12.4% value growth, reflecting high commodity prices.
• China remained the largest merchandise trader, but its share in global exports dropped to 14% from 15% in 2021.
• Manufactured goods accounted for 63% of global merchandise exports in 2022, down from 68% in 2018, due to high energy prices.
• Automotive exports saw strong growth, with China increasing its exports by 30% in Q1 2022, and the U.S. overtaking Japan as the second-largest exporter.
• Intermediate goods exports fell in Europe and Asia in 2022, while South and Central America saw an 8.5% increase, driven by Brazil’s soybean exports.

Commercial Services

• Computer services were the most dynamic sector in services trade, with 44% growth compared to 2019.
• Travel services recovered, but Asian LDCs still lagged, with 74% below 2019 levels, while African LDCs were only 9% below.
• Transport services grew but at a slower pace, with air transport declining from 35.2% to 25.8% of total transport services.

Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

• LDCs’ goods exports increased by 41% between 2019 and 2022, but commercial services remained 14% below pre-pandemic levels.
• Tourism recovery was weak in Asia, while Africa showed more resilience.

Economic Growth and Trade

• Trade and GDP growth slowed in 2022, with merchandise trade volume growth at 2.7% and GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 5.9% in 2021.
• Trade growth in 2023 is expected to remain weak, with 1.7% forecasted for the year, due to geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and monetary tightening.
• Exchange rate volatility and commodity price spikes affected trade performance, especially in manufacturing and transport sectors.

Key Information

Data Sources

• Data is compiled by the WTO and UNCTAD, with WTO-UNCTAD estimates used for most trade statistics.
• Additional data is sourced from Trade Data Monitor, UNCTADStat, and WTO-OECD Balanced Trade in Services dataset.

Methodology

• Trade data is based on the average of exports and imports.
• Intra-regional trade is highlighted as a key indicator, especially in digitally delivered services.
• Exchange rate adjustments and commodity price impacts are considered in value growth calculations.

Future Outlook

• Global trade is expected to remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks, financial instability, and external debt.
• Digital technologies and global supply chain diversification are seen as critical for economic resilience and growth.
• Multilateral cooperation is emphasized as necessary to navigate turbulent global conditions and support trade recovery.

Structure

• I. Introduction includes acknowledgments and a message from the Director-General.
• II. Highlights of World Trade in 2022 covers global trade performance, regional trade dynamics, and LDCs.
• III. World Trade and Economic Growth, 2022-23 discusses trade and GDP trends, volume and value changes, and risks.
• IV. Composition, Definitions & Methodology explains how trade data is categorized and calculated.
• V. Statistical Tables provide detailed data on trade by region, product, and service type.

Conclusion

The World Trade Statistical Review 2023 underscores the resilience of global trade despite economic and geopolitical challenges. It highlights the importance of digital services and intra-regional trade in shaping future growth, while emphasizing the need for multilateral cooperation and data transparency to support sustainable trade development.