WTO-2023年世界贸易统计评论（英）-138页_3mb

报告摘要

World Trade Statistical Review 2023 Summary

Core Content

The World Trade Statistical Review 2023 provides an in-depth analysis of global trade developments in 2022 and the early part of 2023, highlighting key trends and challenges in both goods and services trade, as well as the role of least-developed countries (LDCs) in the global trade landscape.

Main Points

Global Trade Overview

World trade in goods and services reached US$31.0 trillion in 2022, a 13% increase year-on-year.
Services trade grew by 15% in 2022, slightly outpacing goods trade, which saw a 2.7% volume increase.
Travel rebounded strongly in 2022, rising 70% year-on-year after mobility restrictions were lifted globally.
Computer services were the most dynamic services sector over the past decade, with global exports 44% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
Digitally delivered services accounted for 54% of global services exports in 2022 and 12% of total global trade in goods and services.
Intra-regional trade in digitally delivered services was highest in Asia (43.2%) and Europe (62.3%), while Africa saw a decline to 3.3% in 2021.

Leading Traders

China remained the largest merchandise trader in 2022, with a 14% share of global exports.
Guatemala and Costa Rica rose significantly in the world rankings, moving up to 76th and 77th positions respectively.
India climbed to 7th position in services trade due to a 32% growth, driven by computer services exports.
United States and Germany ranked 2nd and 3rd in merchandise trade.

Merchandise Trade

World merchandise trade volume increased by 2.7% in 2022, but this was well below the 12.4% value growth, largely due to high commodity prices.
Manufactured goods accounted for 63% of global merchandise exports in 2022, down from 68% in 2018, due to high energy prices.
Fuel and mining products exports grew by 19% annually from 2019 to 2022, reaching US$5,158 billion in 2022.
Automotive exports saw significant growth, with China increasing its exports by 30% and the United States overtaking Japan as the second-largest exporter.
Intermediate goods (IGs) exports declined in Europe and Asia in 2022, but South and Central America saw an 8.5% increase, driven by Brazil's soybean exports.
Africa had a 47% increase in IG exports in 2022, mainly due to high commodity prices.

Commercial Services

Commercial services exports grew by 16% to US$7,076 billion in 2022, with travel rebounding due to pandemic restrictions easing.
Computer services were the fastest-growing sector, but growth slowed to 6% in 2022 due to exchange rate volatility.
Africa held a less than 1% share of global digitally delivered services exports in 2022, lagging behind other regions.

Least-Developed Countries (LDCs)

LDCs' goods exports increased by 41% from 2019 to 2022, while commercial services exports remained 14% below pre-pandemic levels.
Travel exports from Asian LDCs were 74% below 2019 levels, due to ongoing pandemic-related measures.
African LDCs saw better performance, with travel exports only 9% below 2019 levels.

Key Risks and Outlook

Global trade growth slowed in 2022 and remained weak in early 2023, impacted by geopolitical tensions, inflation, monetary tightening, and debt distress.
Trade and GDP growth in 2022 were 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively, down from 9.4% and 5.9% in 2021.
Downside risks for 2023 include heightened geopolitical tensions, food and energy insecurity, financial instability, and external debt.
WTO forecasts suggest a 1.7% growth in merchandise trade for 2023, but this requires stronger growth in the remaining months.
Multilateral trade cooperation is emphasized as essential for economic resilience and harnessing digital technologies.

Methodology and Sources

The report is based on WTO-UNCTAD and WTO-OECD data.
Statistical sources include trade data from various regions and specific notes for selected economies.
The composition of trade and definitions are detailed in the report, with a focus on geographical and economic groupings.
Abbreviations and symbols are provided for clarity in interpreting the data.

Conclusion

The World Trade Statistical Review 2023 underscores the resilience of global trade despite various challenges and risks. It highlights the importance of data for policymakers to monitor trade trends and formulate effective responses. The report also stresses the need for multilateral cooperation to ensure open and predictable trade and to address the risks posed by geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, and technological disruptions.