WTO发布《2021年世界贸易报告》：审视全球贸易体系的脆弱性和韧性-212页_8mb

2021 World Trade Report Summary: Economic Resilience and Trade

Core Content

The 2021 World Trade Report focuses on economic resilience in the context of a global economy increasingly exposed to natural and man-made shocks. It explores the role of trade, trade policy, and international cooperation in enhancing economic resilience, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and other global risks.

Main Views

1. Economic Resilience: A Key Strategy

• Economic resilience is defined as the ability of a system (households, firms, governments) to prevent, prepare for, cope with, and recover from shocks.
• The interconnected global economy is more vulnerable to shocks but also more resilient when they occur.
• Global cooperation is essential for building and supporting economic resilience, as it allows for the sharing of resources, knowledge, and strategies.

2. Trade and Resilience

• Trade can both spread shocks and enhance resilience.
• Trade helps diversify supply sources and markets, reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions.
• Trade in services plays a vital role in risk management, including weather forecasting, insurance, and health services.
• Global value chains (GVCs) increase exposure to shocks but also offer opportunities for resilience through diversification and flexibility.

3. Trade Policy and Cooperation

• International trade policy cooperation is crucial for reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing resilience.
• Regional trade agreements (RTAs) and multilateral trade negotiations can support inclusive trade and economic diversification.
• The WTO has a key role in promoting transparent and predictable trade rules to support resilience.

4. Lessons from the Pandemic

• The pandemic highlighted the importance of trade in ensuring the availability of essential goods, such as medical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Despite export restrictions, trade continued to flow, helping to meet skyrocketing demand for medical goods.
• Supply chain bottlenecks were exacerbated by natural disasters, cyber-attacks, and production shutdowns, but trade resilience helped economies recover.

Key Information

Economic Impact of Shocks

• The 2020 global trade in goods and services fell by 9.6% in nominal dollar terms.
• Global GDP fell by 3.3%, marking the most severe recession since World War II.
• Trade in medical supplies increased by 16%, and PPE trade rose by nearly 50%.
• Agricultural trade remained stable, preventing the health crisis from becoming a food crisis.

Risks and Shocks

• Natural and man-made shocks are becoming more frequent and severe.
• Climate change increases the frequency of extreme weather events, which can cause substantial economic losses and loss of life.
• Zoonotic diseases and cyber-attacks are emerging risks that can be amplified through trade and economic interdependence.
• Global economic disruptions have a greater impact on developing countries, especially smaller and poorer economies.

Trade and Resilience Strategies

• Diversification of trade relationships and supply chains is essential for resilience.
• Inventory management and flexible production can help firms and governments respond more effectively to shocks.
• Domestic policies that support trade and economic growth are crucial for building resilience.
• Self-sufficiency strategies, such as reshoring production, may reduce resilience due to their inefficiency and higher vulnerability to domestic shocks.

Conclusion

• The WTO must continue to promote global cooperation, transparent trade rules, and inclusive trade policies to enhance economic resilience.
• The 12th Ministerial Conference in 2021 offers an opportunity to advance these goals.
• Resilience is not a zero-sum game; global trade and cooperation can support and strengthen resilience, not undermine it.

Key Authors and Contributors

• WTO Deputy Director-General: Anabel González and Robert Koopman
• Report Authors: Marc Auboin, Marc Bacchetta, Francesco Bellelli, Cosimo Beverlli, Eddy Bekkers, Emmanuelle Ganne, John Hancock, Katharina Laengle, Kathryn Lundquist, José-Antonio Monteiro, Roberta Piermartini, Yves Renouf, Victor Stolzenburg and Ankai Xu
• External Contributors: Stephane Hallegatte, Chad Bown, Patrick Gaulé, Alison Gillwald, Susan Lund, Ellen 't Hoen, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Mami Mizutori, and Ralph Ossa
• WTO Chairs: Leila Baghdadadi, Tabitha Kiriti-Nganga, and Boopen Seetanah, Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur, and Jaime De Melo

Additional Highlights

• The report emphasizes that economic resilience requires a combination of domestic policies and international cooperation.
• It challenges the binary assumption that global trade and domestic security are mutually exclusive.
• Trade in services and digital infrastructure are important for early warning systems and risk mitigation.
• The WTO can contribute to resilience by fostering trade facilitation, services liberalization, and cooperation on climate and health issues.

Figure Reference

• Figure 1: Highlights that global trade has been more resilient during the pandemic than during the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Social Consequences of Shocks

• Poorer households are particularly vulnerable to income loss, early school leaving, loss of health care access, and poor nutrition.
• Natural hazards push 26 million people into poverty annually.
• The pandemic exacerbated gender inequalities, as women faced greater disruptions in face-to-face services and care responsibilities.

Final Recommendations

• Strengthen global cooperation to enhance economic resilience.
• Promote trade diversification and flexible supply chains.
• Support trade-related policies that reduce economic and health vulnerabilities.
• Enhance transparency and predictability in trade to support effective policy-making.