爱立信-2019年11月移动报告（英文）36页_4mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary (November 2019)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of global mobile network trends, focusing on 5G adoption, mobile broadband subscriptions, traffic growth, and the evolution of voice and communication services. It highlights the progress made in 5G deployment, the role of 4G in driving traffic and subscriptions, and the future outlook for mobile networks and services.

Main Points and Key Information

5G Momentum

• Global 5G Subscriptions: By the end of 2019, 13 million 5G subscriptions are expected globally.
• South Korea: Recorded around 3 million 5G subscribers in just a few months, with all service providers launching commercial 5G services in April 2019.
• 2025 Forecast: 2.6 billion 5G subscriptions are expected, covering 65% of the world’s population and generating 45% of total mobile data traffic.
• 5G Device Growth: 5G device shipments are projected to reach 13 million units by the end of 2019, with 160 million units expected in 2020.
• 5G Deployment: 5G is expected to gain scale in 2020 due to coverage roll-out and device availability. It is anticipated to surpass LTE in terms of adoption speed.

Mobile Subscriptions

• Total Mobile Subscriptions: Reached around 8 billion in Q3 2019, with 61 million added during the quarter.
• Mobile Broadband Subscriptions: Accounted for 6.2 billion subscriptions, or 77% of all mobile subscriptions, by the end of Q3 2019.
• LTE Dominance: LTE subscriptions made up 52% of all mobile subscriptions in Q3 2019 and are expected to peak at 5.4 billion in 2022 before declining to 4.8 billion by 2025.
• Smartphone Penetration: Smartphones account for more than 70% of mobile subscriptions. By the end of 2019, there are 5.6 billion smartphone subscriptions globally, projected to reach 7.4 billion by 2025.
• 2G Decline: 2G subscriptions are expected to decline slowly, especially in the Middle East and Africa, due to the longer life-cycles of 2G devices and the relatively higher cost of smartphones.

Voice and Communication Services

• VoLTE: VoLTE is the foundation for enabling voice and communication services on 4G and 5G devices. It is estimated that 2.1 billion VoLTE subscriptions were active by the end of 2019, and this is expected to grow to 6.4 billion by 2025.
• VoLTE-Enabled Devices: Over 2,500 VoLTE-enabled device models are available, with more than 165 EVS-capable models, providing improved audio quality and call reliability.
• Voice Over Wi-Fi and IoT: Voice services are being extended to IoT devices and smart speakers, with the same phone number used across multiple devices.

Regional Outlook

• India: LTE subscriptions are expected to increase by 150 million in 2019, surpassing GSM/EDGE. By 2025, LTE will represent 63% of subscriptions, while 5G is expected to reach 21%.
• Middle East and Africa: LTE subscriptions are expected to grow from 25% in 2019 to 82% by 2025. 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 120 million by 2025, with 90 million in the Middle East and North Africa.
• Central and Eastern Europe: LTE will account for 42% of subscriptions in 2019, and 5G is expected to be launched in Latvia and Romania. By 2025, LTE will represent 70% of subscriptions, while 5G will reach 25%.
• Latin America: LTE will remain dominant, accounting for 51% of subscriptions in 2019 and 69% in 2025. 5G is expected to reach 11% of subscriptions by 2025.
• North America: LTE penetration is at 91% in 2019, and 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 320 million by 2025, or 74% of all mobile subscriptions.
• Western Europe: LTE is currently dominant at 69% of subscriptions, with 5G expected to reach 55% by 2025.

Mobile Data Traffic

• Global Growth: Mobile data traffic is expected to grow by a factor of 4 from 38 EB per month in 2019 to 160 EB per month in 2025.
• Video Traffic: Video traffic is the main driver of growth, expected to account for 75% of mobile data traffic by 2025, up from 60% in 2019.
• Social Networking: Social network traffic is expected to grow at 20% annually but will decrease as a share of total traffic due to stronger growth in video.
• Smartphone Impact: Smartphones account for over 90% of mobile data traffic today and are projected to reach 95% in 2025.
• India's Growth: India is expected to see 500 million additional smartphone users by 2025, with average monthly data usage per smartphone reaching 24GB by 2025.

Network and Technology Trends

• Network Coverage: LTE is expected to remain the dominant mobile access technology through 2025.
• 5G and VoLTE Coexistence: VoLTE is the foundation for 5G voice services, and both technologies are expected to coexist and support each other.
• Device Capabilities: Second-generation 5G chipsets are enabling more integrated designs, reduced power consumption, and broader frequency support.

Key Figures

• Total Mobile Subscriptions (Q3 2019): 8 billion
• Mobile Broadband Subscriptions (Q3 2019): 6.2 billion (77% of total)
• LTE Subscriptions (Q3 2019): 4.2 billion (52% of total)
• VoLTE Subscriptions (End of 2019): 2.1 billion
• 5G Subscriptions (End of 2019): 13 million
• 5G Subscriptions (2025 Forecast): 2.6 billion
• Global Mobile Data Traffic (2019): 38 EB per month
• Global Mobile Data Traffic (2025 Forecast): 160 EB per month
• Smartphone Penetration (2025 Forecast): 83% of all mobile subscriptions
• 5G Penetration (2025 Forecast): 29% of all mobile subscriptions
• India's Smartphone Users (2025 Forecast): 5.6 billion (up from 5.6 billion in 2019)
• India's Mobile Data Traffic per Smartphone (2025 Forecast): 24GB per month

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the rapid growth of 5G subscriptions and the continued dominance of LTE in mobile networks. It emphasizes the role of smartphones in driving mobile data traffic, the expansion of VoLTE and other communication services, and the regional variations in technology adoption and traffic growth. By 2025, 5G is expected to become a major contributor to global mobile data traffic, with India and North America leading in adoption.