爱立信-2018年6月移动报告（英文）-2018.6-36页-3mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary (2018)

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the transformative changes in the mobile industry, especially in 2018, as the year marks the beginning of a significant shift driven by 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT). It outlines key trends, forecasts, and regional developments in mobile subscriptions, data traffic, and device technologies.

Main Points

1. Mobile Industry Milestones

• The mobile industry has experienced substantial growth over the past two decades, leading to fundamental societal changes.
• 2018 is expected to be a pivotal year due to the rollout of 5G networks and large-scale deployments of cellular IoT.

2. Mobile Subscriptions Growth

• In Q1 2018, there were approximately 7.9 billion mobile subscriptions, with 98 million new subscriptions added.
• China led with the most net additions (+53 million), followed by India (+16 million), Indonesia (+6 million), Nigeria (+3 million), and Bangladesh (+2 million).
• Mobile broadband subscriptions grew by 20% year-on-year, reaching 5.5 billion in Q1 2018.
• Globally, mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to reach 8.3 billion by 2023, accounting for 95% of all mobile subscriptions.
• Smartphones account for 60% of all mobile subscriptions, and their number is forecast to increase to 7.2 billion by 2023.

3. 5G Development and Deployment

• The first commercial 5G launches are expected in 2018, with enhanced mobile broadband as the initial use case.
• 3GPP Release 15 finalized at the end of 2017, and the standalone 5G standard is expected to be completed in June 2018.
• By the end of 2023, 1 billion 5G subscriptions are forecast, representing 20% of all mobile data traffic.
• Third-generation 5G chipsets will be available from 2020, enabling a large-scale increase in 5G subscriptions.

4. 5G Device Outlook

• 5G devices will initially support mid-band frequencies, with the first commercial 5G smartphones expected in early 2019.
• Fixed wireless access (FWA) and data-only devices are expected to be among the first 5G use cases, particularly in the mid-frequency bands.
• High-frequency bands (mmWave), such as 39GHz and 28GHz, will see 5G device availability in 2018 and 2019.

5. Voice over LTE (VoLTE) Outlook

• VoLTE subscriptions exceeded 610 million at the end of 2017.
• By 2023, 5.4 billion VoLTE subscriptions are projected, making up 80% of combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.
• VoLTE enables high-quality simultaneous communication and data services, and supports new use cases such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR).

6. Regional Subscriptions Outlook

• Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to grow across all regions.
• LTE is forecast to become the dominant technology in most regions, with WCDMA/HSPA declining.
• North America is expected to have 48% of its mobile subscriptions on 5G by 2023.
• India is expected to see a dramatic shift from GSM/EDGE-only to LTE, with LTE subscriptions projected to reach 78% of all subscriptions by 2023.
• Middle East and Africa is anticipated to have 90% of its mobile subscriptions on mobile broadband by 2023.

7. Mobile Data Traffic Growth

• Mobile data traffic grew by 54% year-on-year in Q1 2018, driven by increased smartphone subscriptions and higher data consumption per subscription.
• Video traffic is the largest contributor to mobile data, expected to account for 73% of all mobile data traffic by 2023.
• Total mobile data traffic is forecast to increase by nearly eight times, reaching 107 exabytes (EB) per month by the end of 2023.
• 5G is expected to carry 20% of mobile data traffic by 2023, which is 1.5 times more than current 4G/3G/2G traffic.

8. IoT Connections Outlook

• The number of cellular IoT connections is forecast to reach 3.5 billion by 2023, with an annual growth rate of 30%.
• North East Asia is expected to account for 2.2 billion of these connections, with China leading the way.
• NB-IoT and Cat-M1 are driving IoT growth, supporting low-power wide-area (LPWA) use cases across the same LTE network.
• Large-scale IoT deployments are expected to reduce chipset prices, further accelerating growth.

Key Forecasts

Summary of Trends

• 5G and IoT are set to redefine the mobile industry, with 5G expected to be a major enabler for new services and applications.
• LTE is becoming the dominant mobile access technology, with significant growth in both subscriptions and data traffic.
• Smartphones continue to drive data consumption, and their penetration is expected to increase to 95% of all mobile data traffic by 2023.
• Regional disparities in mobile technology adoption and growth are expected to persist, with North East Asia and North America leading in data traffic and 5G adoption.
• VoLTE is playing a crucial role in enabling interoperable communication services across LTE, Wi-Fi, and 5G networks.