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Ericsson Mobility Report Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides an overview of the evolution and future trajectory of mobile technology over the past decade, highlighting the transformative impact of 4G and the rapid rise of 5G. The report reflects on key trends, forecasts, and disruptive events that have shaped the industry, while also looking ahead to how these developments will influence the future of mobile networks and services.

Main Trends and Forecasts

• 5G Growth: By 2027, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 4.4 billion, accounting for 49% of all mobile subscriptions. This marks the point where 5G will become the dominant mobile access technology.
• Global Mobile Subscriptions: Mobile subscriptions are projected to increase from 8.1 billion in 2021 to 8.9 billion by 2027, with 92% of these being mobile broadband subscriptions.
• Smartphone Dominance: Smartphones will account for 86% of all mobile subscriptions by 2027, up from 77% in 2021.
• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): FWA is expected to offer broadband to 800 million people by 2027, through 230 million connections.
• Broadband IoT: Massive IoT will make up 51% of all cellular IoT connections by 2027.
• Traffic Growth: Mobile data traffic has increased 300 times since 2011, with smartphones and video being major drivers.

Key Insights

5G Adoption

• Faster Uptake: 5G subscriptions are expected to grow faster than 4G, reaching 1 billion in just 2 years compared to 4G’s 6 years.
• Geographic Penetration:
  • North America will have the highest 5G penetration at 90% by 2027.
  • North East Asia will have 72% 5G penetration.
  • Western Europe is projected to reach 83%.
  • Latin America will see 44% 5G penetration.
  • GCC is expected to have 80% of its subscriptions as 5G by 2027.

4G and Other Technologies

• 4G Dominance: 4G subscriptions are projected to peak at 4.7 billion in 2021 and decline to 3.3 billion by 2027.
• 3G Decline: 3G subscriptions will continue to decline, with WCDMA/HSPA expected to drop to nearly 0% in 2027.
• 2G Decline: GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will also decline, though not as sharply as 3G.

Disruptive Events

• Zero-Rated Data Bundles: In 2015, US service providers introduced zero-rated data bundles, leading to a global traffic spike.
• India’s 4G Surge: In 2017, India saw a surge in 4G adoption due to competitive pricing, which increased smartphone traffic usage significantly.
• China’s Early 5G Adoption: China's early engagement with 5G and device price drops contributed to faster-than-expected 5G growth.

5G and Digital Transformation

• 5G and Industry 4.0: 5G is ideal for Industry 4.0, enabling real-time monitoring, automation, and improved productivity in sectors like mining, manufacturing, and energy.
• Private Networks: Private networks are becoming a key enabler for business innovation, with use cases such as remote control of mining equipment and real-time worker tracking.
• Digital Divide: 5G and FWA are seen as critical tools for bridging the digital divide, especially in rural areas of Latin America.

Key Contributions and Authors

• Executive Editor: Patrik Cerwall
• Project Manager: Anette Lundvall
• Editors: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson
• Forecast Lead: Richard Moller
• Co-authors: Rachit Saksena (Telia), Dave Lu (Far EasTone), Ilyas Celik (stc)

Regional Outlook

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report underscores that mobile technology continues to evolve rapidly, with 5G playing a central role in shaping the future. It highlights the importance of digital infrastructure in supporting economic and social progress, especially in the wake of the pandemic. The report also emphasizes the potential of 5G FWA and private networks to drive innovation and connectivity across regions. As the industry moves forward, the interplay of technology, economics, and policy will be critical in determining the pace and impact of future growth.