2018爱立信移动报告（英文版）_30页_6mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary - November 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global mobile market, including subscriptions, traffic, and the emerging role of 5G and IoT technologies.

Key Figures and Trends

Mobile Subscriptions (Q3 2018)

• Total mobile subscriptions: ~7.9 billion
• New subscriptions added: 120 million
• Top countries by net additions:
  • China: +37 million
  • India: +31 million
  • Indonesia: +13 million
• Mobile broadband subscriptions: 5.7 billion (grew by 15% YoY)
• LTE subscriptions: 3.3 billion (grew by 200 million)
• WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions: ~60 million net additions
• GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions: declined by 110 million
• Smartphone subscriptions: over 60% of all mobile phone subscriptions
• Smartphone sales in Q3 2018: ~360 million
• Global subscription penetration: 104%

Mobile Subscriptions Outlook (2024)

• Total mobile subscriptions: 8.9 billion
• Mobile broadband subscriptions: 8.4 billion (~95% of all mobile subscriptions)
• Unique mobile subscribers: ~6.2 billion
• LTE subscriptions by 2024: 5.4 billion (>60% of all subscriptions)
• 5G subscriptions by 2024: ~1.5 billion (17% of all mobile subscriptions)

IoT Connections Outlook

• Cellular IoT connections by 2024: 4.1 billion (CAGR of 27%)
• Wide-area IoT connections: 4.5 billion
• Short-range IoT connections: 17.8 billion (CAGR of 15%)
• Total IoT connections: 22.3 billion (CAGR of 17%)
• NB-IoT and Cat-M1: dominant technologies for massive IoT, with NB-IoT supporting up to 250 Kbps and Cat-M1 up to 1 Mbps
• IoT traffic characteristics:
  • Small data volumes per device
  • High number of connections
  • Limited but growing traffic volume
  • Expected evolution toward more data-intensive IoT use cases

Voice over LTE (VoLTE) Outlook

• VoLTE subscriptions by end of 2018: ~1.4 billion
• VoLTE subscriptions by end of 2024: 6 billion (~90% of LTE and 5G subscriptions)
• VoLTE-enabled devices: over 1,800 models
• HD voice+ enabled devices: over 150 models
• VoLTE-based services:
  • Wi-Fi calling
  • Voice in IoT devices
  • Multi-device and multi-persona services
  • ViLTE (Video over LTE) launched by over 20 service providers

5G Device Outlook

• 5G commercialization: expected to take off in 2019
• 5G mass market entry: 2020
• 5G device forecast:
  • 2024: ~250 million subscriptions in North America
  • North East Asia: ~43% penetration
  • Western Europe: ~30% penetration
• 5G device challenges:
  • Frequency diversity (mmWave, mid-band, low-band)
  • Power consumption and antenna technology for mmWave
  • Second-generation chipsets expected by end of 2019
  • Enhanced architectures and lower power consumption for future devices

Regional Subscriptions Outlook

• Global mobile broadband subscriptions: 74% of all mobile subscriptions
• India:
  • LTE subscriptions: ~30% in 2018, projected to reach 81% by 2024
  • 5G expected in 2022
• Middle East and Africa:
  • Mobile broadband penetration: from ~40% to 90% by 2024
  • LTE subscriptions: ~20% in 2018, ~7% in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 5G expected from 2022
• South East Asia and Oceania:
  • LTE subscriptions: ~26% in 2018, projected to reach 63% by 2024
  • 5G expected in 2021
• Central and Eastern Europe:
  • LTE subscriptions: projected to reach 86% by 2024
  • 5G expected in 2019, ~10% penetration by 2024
• Latin America:
  • LTE subscriptions: ~42% in 2018, projected to reach 75% by 2024
  • 5G expected in 2019, with early adoption in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico

Mobile Traffic Trends

Q3 2018 Mobile Traffic

• Global mobile data traffic growth: 79% YoY (highest since 2013)
• Quarter-on-quarter growth: ~17%

Application Category Traffic

• Video traffic:
  • Expected to grow by ~35% annually through 2024
  • Will account for 74% of all mobile data traffic
• Social networking:
  • Expected to grow by ~24% annually
  • Share will decline from 11% in 2018 to ~8% in 2024
• Other segments:
  • Web browsing, audio, software updates, and P2P file sharing

Mobile Data Traffic Outlook (2024)

• Total mobile data traffic: ~136 EB/month (5 times higher than in 2018)
• Smartphone-generated traffic: ~95% of total mobile data traffic
• North America:
  • Monthly usage: 8.6 GB in 2018, projected to reach 50 GB by 2024
• North East Asia:
  • Monthly data traffic: 39 EB (second-highest globally)
  • China: ~29 EB/month by 2024
• Middle East and Africa:
  • Data traffic growth: ~9 times over the forecast period
  • Projected to reach 17 EB/month by 2024

Key Drivers and Challenges

• 5G adoption: driven by increased network capacity, reduced cost per byte, and new use cases
• IoT growth: fueled by the deployment of NB-IoT and Cat-M1, with potential for more data-intensive applications
• VoLTE expansion: enabled by cloud/NFV technologies, with HD voice+ and ViLTE as emerging features
• Smartphone growth: continues to rise, with over 5 billion subscriptions by end of 2018
• Market challenges:
  • Competition among service providers in China and India
  • Technological and infrastructure challenges for mmWave
  • Transition from older technologies like GSM/EDGE and WCDMA/HSPA

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the rapid growth of mobile subscriptions, driven by smartphone adoption and IoT expansion. 5G is set to become a major force in the mobile market, with commercial launches beginning in 2019 and mass market entry by 2020. The report also underscores the shift toward mobile broadband, with IoT and VoLTE playing crucial roles in shaping future demand and network capabilities.