蒙古国可再生能源评估（英文版）_66页_7mb

报告摘要

Mongolia Renewables Readiness Assessment Summary

Core Content

Mongolia is a resource-rich country with significant potential for renewable energy development, including solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal and biomass. The country has set ambitious renewable energy targets: increasing the share of renewable energy in total installed power generation capacity to 20% by 2023 and 30% by 2030. These targets are part of the State Policy on the Energy Sector, approved in 2015, and are supported by the new Law on Energy Conservation and Efficiency.

The government has taken steps to create an enabling environment for renewable energy deployment, including amendments to the Renewable Energy Law and the establishment of a Renewable Energy Fund. However, challenges remain, particularly in the implementation of policies and financial support mechanisms.

Main Viewpoints

Renewable Energy Potential: Mongolia has vast renewable resources, especially in the Gobi Desert, where solar and wind resources are abundant. The total renewable energy potential is estimated at 2.6 terawatts (TW), with combined wind and solar output potentially reaching 15,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually.
Energy Context: Mongolia's energy system is dominated by coal, which accounts for over 90% of total primary energy supply. The country's energy demand is growing, with the residential sector and other industries contributing significantly to this increase.
Policy and Legal Framework: The Renewable Energy Law and the new Energy Conservation and Efficiency Law are key legislative tools that support the transition to renewable energy. These laws aim to attract investment, improve efficiency, and promote public-private partnerships.
Environmental Challenges: Mongolia faces severe air pollution, especially in Ulaanbaatar, due to coal combustion and inefficient energy use. The government has prioritised addressing these issues through renewable energy development.

Key Information

Renewable Energy Targets: 20% by 2023 and 30% by 2030.
Key Renewable Resources:
- Solar and wind resources in the Gobi Desert.
- Hydropower, geothermal and biomass resources.
Government Initiatives:
- The Gobitec initiative aims to create a regional power grid in northeast Asia.
- The Asian Super Grid (ASG) is a proposed infrastructure to facilitate cross-border electricity trade.
Challenges:
- Limited duration of feed-in tariffs (FiTs), which discourage long-term investment.
- Currency risk due to the use of USD for FiTs, placing financial pressure on the government.
- Inadequate grid infrastructure for integrating variable renewable sources.
- Need for enhanced institutional and human capacity in renewable energy development.

Recommendations

Investigate the Potential of a Renewable Energy Quota System: To create a market-oriented environment and incentivise coal-fired power plants to adopt renewable sources.
Conduct a Power-System Status Assessment and Study on Grid Integration: To better understand how variable renewable sources impact the grid and develop strategies for their integration.
Establish a National Research, Development and Training Facility: To support renewable energy development with updated knowledge and skills.
Enhance the Capacity of the National Dispatching Center (NDC): To manage variable renewable sources effectively and improve grid operations.
Form a Consortium for a Feasibility Study of the Asian Super Grid (ASG): To assess the technical, economic and political feasibility of a cross-border grid infrastructure for renewable electricity exports.

Conclusion

The Renewables Readiness Assessment highlights the potential for Mongolia to become a regional renewable energy exporter. With the right legal, financial and technical frameworks, the country can overcome current challenges and achieve its renewable energy goals. The assessment also underscores the importance of regional cooperation, particularly through the ASG, to support the development of a sustainable energy future.

References

World Bank
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
World Health Organization (WHO)
IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency)

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Mongolia's annual economic growth rate, 1991-2014
Figure 2: Mongolian electricity production
Figure 3: Mongolian heat production, 2000-2013
Figure 4: Electricity consumption by sector
Figure 5: Future power demand in Mongolia
Figure 6: Energy systems of Mongolia
Figure 7: Installed electricity generating capacity by source
Figure 8: Breakdown of Mongolia's power supply in 2014
Figure 9: Structure of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)
Figure 10: Map of wind energy resource in Mongolia
Figure 11: Wind energy resource in the Gobi Desert region
Figure 12: Solar energy resource in the Gobi Desert region
Figure 13: Geographical distribution of annual total precipitation
Figure 14: Geothermal energy resource in Mongolia

Tables

Table 1: Generating facilities in the Central Energy System
Table 2: Breakdown of good-to-excellent wind resource potential at 30 meters high
Table 3: Mongolian solar resource (estimates)
Table 4: Solar PV systems (off-grid and grid-connected mini-grids) in Mongolia
Table 5: Solar-wind hybrid systems in Mongolia
Table 6: Ranges of FiTs for renewable energy power sources in Mongolia (USD/kWh)