蒙古国可再生能源评估（英文）_68页-7mb

报告摘要

Mongolia Renewables Readiness Assessment Summary

Core Content

This document presents the Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) of Mongolia, a collaborative effort between the Mongolian Ministry of Energy (MoE) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The report outlines Mongolia's potential for renewable energy development, its current energy context, government commitments, and key challenges in transitioning to a more sustainable energy system.

Main Points

1.1 Country Background

Mongolia is a landlocked country in East and Central Asia, bordered by China and Russia.
It has a lower-middle-income economy and is one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world, with a total land area of 1.56 million km² and a population of 3 million.
The economy has experienced significant growth over the past decade, with a peak GDP growth rate of 17.5% in 2011, driven largely by the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine.
However, recent years have seen economic slowdown and declining foreign direct investment, with GDP growth dropping to 7.8% in 2014 and a sharp 74% decline in FDI.

1.2 Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA)

The RRA is a comprehensive evaluation of Mongolia's readiness to deploy renewable energy technologies at scale.
It is part of a global initiative by IRENA, which has been applied in over 20 countries across Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Asia-Pacific region.
The assessment aims to identify key challenges and provide actionable recommendations to support Mongolia's renewable energy goals.

Renewable Energy Resources and Development

3.1 Renewable Energy Resources and Exploitation

Mongolia has abundant renewable energy resources, including:
- Solar: Particularly in the Gobi Desert, where solar irradiation is high.
- Wind: Also abundant in the Gobi region, with potential for large-scale power generation.
- Hydropower: Significant potential in mountainous regions.
- Geothermal: Potential exists in certain areas.
- Biomass: Can be used for energy production, especially in rural areas.
The 52 MW Salkhit wind farm, operational since July 2013, was the first utility-scale non-hydro renewable energy facility in Mongolia.
There are ongoing projects in wind and solar energy, aiming to meet the government's renewable energy targets.

Government Commitments

The State Policy on the Energy Sector (2015) outlines short- and mid-term development scenarios.
The policy sets an ambitious goal of increasing renewable energy's contribution to 20% of total installed power generation capacity by 2023, and 30% by 2030.
The Renewable Energy Law (2007) was amended in June 2015 to improve public-private partnerships, energy efficiency, and market-oriented frameworks.
A new Law on Energy Conservation and Efficiency was also approved by parliament.

Key Challenges and Recommendations

4.1 Core Elements of the Enabling Environment

Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs): The original 10-year duration has been a barrier to long-term investment.
- Recommendation 1: Investigate the potential of a renewable energy quota system.
- Recommendation 2: Allocate financial resources for renewable energy promotion in the annual government budget.

4.2 Grid Assessment for Integration of Variable Renewables

Grid operators have limited experience in managing variable renewable sources.
A comprehensive grid assessment is needed to develop strategies for integrating renewables.
Power flow and stability analyses are recommended to understand the impact on the grid.
NDC (National Dispatch Center) needs to enhance its operational capacity to manage variable renewable sources.

4.3 Institutional and Human Capacities

Energy sector institutions need technical and coordination capacity to support renewable integration.
The National Renewable Energy Center (NREC) should be reviewed and strengthened.
Training and knowledge-sharing are essential to equip officials, researchers, and technical advisors.

4.4 Developing Cross-Border Grid Infrastructure

Mongolia aims to export renewable electricity to northeast Asian countries.
The Asian Super Grid (ASG) initiative is being explored to connect Mongolia with China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan.
A feasibility study involving all five countries is recommended to assess costs and benefits.
Public-private partnerships and international cooperation are key to mitigating investment risks.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Mongolia has the potential to become a regional clean energy exporter.
The RRA indicates that the government's renewable energy targets are achievable.
A regional super grid could provide a promising market for Mongolia's large renewable energy output.
Systematic and regional approaches are necessary to accelerate renewable energy deployment and ensure a successful energy transition.

References and Supporting Materials

The RRA includes figures, tables, and boxes that provide data and insights on Mongolia's energy context, renewable resources, and development progress.
Key abbreviations are defined for clarity and understanding.

Summary of Renewable Energy Targets

Year	Target for Renewable Energy Contribution
2023	20% of total installed power generation capacity
2030	30% of total installed power generation capacity

Key Stakeholders and Support

The Mongolian Ministry of Energy and IRENA have been central to the RRA process.
The Mongolian Society for an Asian Super Grid and Mongolian Academy of Sciences have contributed to research and policy development.
The National Dispatching Center (NDC) is the grid operator and a key stakeholder in renewable integration.

Policy and Legal Framework

The Renewable Energy Law and Energy Conservation and Efficiency Law provide legal and regulatory support for renewable energy development.
A support tariff was introduced in the June 2015 amendment to address currency risks and fiscal pressures.
The Enabling Environment is crucial for attracting investment and supporting sustainable growth.

Investment and Funding

Renewable Energy Fund is needed to cover incremental costs of renewable energy projects.
The government can explore long-term soft loans, technical assistance, and public-private partnerships.
Air pollution taxes, mining revenues, and fossil-fuel taxes could be used to support renewable energy development.

Regional Cooperation

Mongolia is working to establish a regional electricity market and promote cross-border energy trade.
The Gobitec initiative aims to create a regionally integrated power grid across northeast Asia.
The ASG initiative is being considered to enhance Mongolia's role as a renewable energy exporter.

Final Remarks

The RRA highlights the potential and challenges of renewable energy deployment in Mongolia.
With the right policies, legal frameworks, and technical capacities, Mongolia can successfully transition to a sustainable energy future.
Continued international cooperation and regional integration are essential for achieving long-term energy goals.