坦桑尼亚可再生能源准备评估（英文版）_66页_4mb

Summary of the Renewables Readiness Assessment for Tanzania

Core Content

The Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) for the United Republic of Tanzania outlines the country's renewable energy potential and the challenges and opportunities in transitioning to a more sustainable and resilient energy system. The report emphasizes the need for policy, financial, and institutional reforms to support the expansion of renewable energy technologies such as solar PV, wind, geothermal, and biomass.

Tanzania has significant renewable energy resources, yet its current energy mix is dominated by hydropower and oil, with only 4.85% of non-hydropower renewables being considered in the Electricity Industry Reform Roadmap. The country has 18% electricity access, and the low access rate, combined with the unreliability of the grid and high transmission losses, hampers economic development. The report highlights that renewables can provide a cost-effective and sustainable solution to these challenges, especially given the high correlation between wind resources and system demand.

IRENA and LBNL's analysis shows that wind power could replace oil-based generation at a third of the cost, and that utility-scale solar PV and wind projects could reach 3.7 GW and 1.9 GW by 2030, alongside 694 MW of gas-fuelled power plant investments. The report recommends a revised electricity master plan and a roadmap for least-cost power system development, which would require USD 11.4 billion in generation and USD 6.7 billion in transmission and distribution investments between 2013 and 2030. This would result in a 17% reduction in average generation costs.

Main Points

1. Renewable Energy Potential

• Tanzania has diverse renewable energy resources: hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind, and biomass.
• These resources are underutilized, despite their potential to support economic transformation and sustainable development.
• Solar PV and wind have the greatest potential for expansion, especially in meeting increasing power demand.

2. Current Energy Context

• Only 18% of the population has access to electricity.
• TPES is dominated by biomass, and hydropower and oil are the main sources of electricity generation.
• Oil accounts for 20% of power generation, mainly used for off-grid and emergency applications.
• Grid reliability is low, with 25% of power lost due to infrastructure issues.
• Renewables are not well integrated into the energy system, despite their cost and sustainability advantages.

3. Policy and Regulatory Barriers

• The draft Electricity Systems Operations Act 2016 gives priority to renewables, but lacks guidelines for the forecast period.
• TANESCO, the sole off-taker, has a weak financial position, deterring private investment.
• Feed-in tariffs and SPPAs exist, but private investors are not attracted due to policy and financial uncertainties.
• Financial institutions lack knowledge about renewable energy projects, and no quality control standards are in place for renewable equipment.

4. Investment and Financial Challenges

• High borrowing costs and restrictive financial environments limit private sector involvement.
• Long project development lead times, high land acquisition costs, and cumbersome environmental and water rights procedures are additional barriers.
• Low purchasing power in rural areas and high upfront costs for renewable technologies also restrict investment.

5. Human Capacity and Skills

• There is a lack of skilled human resources in the renewable energy sector.
• Only the University of Dar es Salaam offers a Master of Science in Renewable Energy.
• More training programs are needed at both higher and vocational education levels, as well as on-the-job training to meet the 36,000 employment opportunities expected by 2030.

Key Recommendations

• Revise national energy plans to reflect the latest studies on resource potential and technology costs.
• Incorporate renewable energy forecasting into the Electricity System Operation Rules 2016.
• Promote transmission and wheeling charges that support variable renewables.
• Encourage private generators to sell surplus power to the grid.
• Empower the domestic financial sector through non-banking financial institutions to provide equity investments in renewable energy.
• Establish a risk mitigation mechanism at the regional level, involving COMESA and international partners like IRENA, KfW, and the Green Climate Fund.
• Expand renewable energy training at higher and vocational levels, as well as on-the-job training.
• Introduce local-content requirements for renewable energy projects to boost job creation and local participation.
• Create a national renewable energy research centre to collect, store, and standardize data and improve quality control.

Conclusion

The RRA report highlights the potential for Tanzania to transition to a more sustainable and diversified energy system, with significant renewable energy resources and economic opportunities. It calls for policy and institutional reforms, financial incentives, and capacity building to accelerate this transition. The government is committed to this process and aims to increase renewable energy deployment, with support from IRENA and other international partners. The report serves as a guide for stakeholders to develop a more resilient and inclusive energy system in Tanzania.