20151209-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_21页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 09 December 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the regional financial markets, focusing on Oil & Gas, China Trade, and specific Company Updates for Sino-Ocean Land (3377 HK). It also includes Stock Recommendations, Key Indices, Corporate Events, and Market Assumptions for the period ending 09 December 2015.

Main Points

Oil & Gas Sector

Oil Price Outlook: The 2016 Brent crude oil price estimate was revised down to US$57/bbl from US$63/bbl, while the 2015 estimate remains at US$56/bbl. The target prices are based on US$60/bbl.
Stock Performance:
- Malaysian stocks are still the priciest, while Indonesian stocks are the cheapest.
- Top BUYs: SCI SP, EZI SP, ETL SP, DLG MK.
- Top SELLs: SMM SP, BARAKAH MK.
Market Weight: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Key Risks: Protracted low oil prices and another sharp fall could significantly impact future capex spending.
IEA Demand/Supply Forecast: Indicates the ongoing pressure on the sector due to low oil prices.

China Trade

Trade Data:
- Export value decreased 6.8% yoy, Import value dropped 8.7% yoy in November 2015.
- Trade surplus was US$54.1b.
Key Markets:
- Exports to the US fell 5.3% yoy.
- Exports to the EU dropped 9.0% yoy.
- Exports to Japan declined 10.5% yoy.
Hong Kong Exports:
- Exports to Hong Kong were abnormally strong, possibly due to RMB arbitrage.
- Exports to the rest of the world would be lower at 8.0% yoy if Hong Kong exports are excluded.
Deflationary Pressure:
- Import prices for oil and commodities have declined, contributing to rising domestic deflationary pressure.
Monetary Policy Expectations:
- Further fiscal and monetary easing is expected to counter weak demand and deflation.

Key Company Updates

Sino-Ocean Land (3377 HK)

Shareholder Transfer:
- Nan Fung Group sold 20.5% of its stake to Anbang Insurance.
- The transaction was completed on 7 December 2015.
- Nan Fung now holds 0.8% stake, while Anbang may seek to increase its stake further.
Uncertainties:
- The real intention of Anbang and its next steps are unclear.
- This uncertainty will lead to an overhang on the stock in the near term.
Downgrade:
- Downgraded to HOLD.
- Target Price: HK$5.36.
- Entry Price: HK$4.91.
- Upside: +9.2%.
Company Description:
- Sino-Ocean Land develops residential, office, and commercial real estate in northern China.
Key Financials:
- Net Profit (adj.) for 2015F: Rmb 3,666m.
- EBITDA for 2015F: Rmb 5,755m.
- PE (x): 8.2.
- P/B (x): 0.7.
- EV/EBITDA (x): 12.2.
- Dividend Yield: 4.6%.
- Net Debt/Equity: 75.2%.
- ROE (%): 9.7%.

Stock Recommendations

Singapore

Top BUYs: SCI SP, EZI SP, ETL SP, PACRA SP.
Top SELLs: SMM SP, NCL SP.
Key Stocks:
- SCI SP: Target price S$4.05, current price S$3.04.
- Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Target price S$1.69, current price S$1.82.
- Swiber (SWIB SP): Target price S$0.52, current price S$0.210.

Malaysia

Top BUY: Dialog Group (DLG MK).
Top SELL: Barakah Offshore (BARAKAH MK).
Key Stocks:
- DLG MK: Target price RM1.80, current price RM1.60.
- BARAKAH MK: Target price RM0.55, current price RM0.89.

Indonesia

Hold: Wintermar (WINS IJ), Logindo (LEAD IJ).
Key Stocks:
- WINS IJ: Target price Rp260, current price Rp165.
- LEAD IJ: Target price Rp250, current price Rp135.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17568.0	-0.9	-1.8	-1.9	-1.4
S&P 500	2063.6	-0.6	-1.9	-1.7	0.2
FTSE 100	6135.2	-1.4	-4.1	-3.4	-6.6
AS30	5158.0	-0.9	-2.9	-0.4	-4.3
CSI 300	3623.0	-1.8	0.9	-5.7	2.5
FSSTI	2876.0	-0.9	0.2	-4.1	-14.5
HSCEI	9660.9	-1.4	-2.9	-8.0	-19.4
HSI	21905.1	-1.3	-2.1	-3.6	-7.2
JCI	4464.2	-1.3	-2.1	-0.8	-14.6
KLCI	1669.2	-0.2	-0.8	-1.0	-5.2
KOSPI	1949.0	-0.7	-3.7	-3.8	1.7
Nikkei 225	19492.6	-1.0	-2.6	-0.8	11.7
SET	1307.0	-2.0	-3.9	-6.8	-12.7
TWSE	8343.9	-1.3	-1.4	-3.5	-10.4
BDI	551	0.0	-7.9	-12.7	-29.5
CPO	2159	0.3	3.2	0.3	6.0
Brent Crude	40	-0.6	-8.9	-14.6	-29.4

Corporate Events

Singapore O&G Corporate Roadshow: Held in Taipei from 8 Dec to 9 Dec.
Singapore Strategy 2H15 Analyst Presentation: Held in Taipei from 10 Dec to 11 Dec.

Analysts

Nancy Wei:
+65 6590 6628
nancy.wei@uobkayhian.com
Chaoping Zhu:
+8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
chaoping@uobkayhian.com

Summary of Key Assumptions

Country	2014 GDP (yoy)	2015F GDP (yoy)	2016F GDP (yoy)
US	2.4	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	0.9	1.5	1.7
Japan	-0.1	0.5	1.5
Singapore	2.9	2.5	2.9
Malaysia	6.0	4.8	4.8
Thailand	0.9	2.7	4.0
Indonesia	5.0	4.8	5.4
Hong Kong	2.5	1.8	1.5
China	7.3	6.5	6.7

Conclusion

The report highlights the challenging environment for the Oil & Gas sector, particularly in Indonesia, due to low oil prices and regulatory issues. It emphasizes the potential for recovery in the long term for Singapore and Malaysia with selective BUYs for companies with strong balance sheets and niche market dominance. In China, weak trade momentum continues, but monetary and fiscal easing is expected to support demand and counter deflation. The Sino-Ocean Land update reflects uncertainty following a shareholder transfer, leading to a downgrade to HOLD.