2012年-世界发展银行全球_Human_Opportunity_Index_-_Provinces___Equality_of_Childrens_Opportunities_in_Pakistan_50页_4mb

Summary of the World Bank Policy Paper on Pakistan: Human Opportunity Index (HOI) and Equality of Children's Opportunities

Core Content

This World Bank Policy Paper introduces the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) as a new metric to assess equality of opportunities for children in Pakistan. The focus is on how access to basic services and goods—such as education, health, and infrastructure—varies across provinces and what circumstances (e.g., gender, income, location) contribute to inequality in opportunity distribution.

The paper analyzes data from the 1998-99 and 2007-08 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) surveys to illustrate the progress in equality of opportunities over a decade. It also outlines the potential of using HOI for monitoring changes in the future, especially as Pakistan implements the 18th Amendment, which devolves responsibilities to the provinces.

Main Points and Findings

1. Introduction of the Human Opportunity Index (HOI)

• HOI is a new metric developed by the World Bank to measure how far a society is from universal provision of basic services and goods.

• It combines coverage rates of opportunities with a penalty for unequal distribution, based on the Dissimilarity Index (D), which measures the share of opportunities misallocated to disadvantaged groups.

• The formula is:

  $$
  \mathrm{H O I} = \mathrm{C} (1 - \mathrm{D}) = \mathrm{C} - \mathrm{P}
  $$

  Where:

  • C = average coverage rate
  • D = Dissimilarity Index
  • P = Penalty (C × D)

2. Focus on Provinces

• The paper emphasizes provincial-level analysis to understand how equality of opportunities has evolved across different regions.
• The 18th Amendment is a key context, as it shifts power to the provinces and could affect the delivery of public services.
• The paper suggests that future analysis should include district-level data to better understand inequality patterns and the effectiveness of policy implementation.

3. Key Opportunities Analyzed

The following opportunities are considered in the analysis:

Education

1. Enrollment of children aged 6–10
2. Enrollment of children aged 11–15
3. Primary completion among children aged 15–19
4. Secondary completion among children aged 20–24

Health

1. No diarrhea in the last 30 days for children under 5
2. Ever received immunization
3. Received full immunization according to a health card or mother's report
4. Received full immunization as recorded on a health card
5. Received adequate prenatal care (at least 3 visits before the fourth month of pregnancy)
6. Received any postnatal care within 6 weeks of birth
7. Attended by a traditional or formal birth attendant
8. Attended by a formal birth attendant (doctor, lady health visitor, etc.)
9. Institutional birth (at a government or private hospital/clinic)

Infrastructure

1. Improved sanitation for children aged 0–16
2. Improved water for children aged 0–16
3. Electricity connection for children aged 0–16
4. Gas connection for children aged 0–16
5. Telephone connection for children aged 0–16

4. Circumstances Considered

• Gender
• Urban vs. Rural
• Household size
• Real per capita consumption
• Highest education level of household head
• Gender of household head

Key Observations

• Primary education has shown greater improvement in equality of opportunities compared to secondary education across all provinces.
• Punjab and Sindh have made notable progress in primary enrollment and completion.
• In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), gender is still the most significant factor in explaining inequality in education, though its weight has decreased.
• Karachi shows lower inequality in educational opportunities compared to other parts of Sindh and other provinces, but stagnation or decline in some outcomes like primary completion is a concern.
• The HOI approach is useful for identifying which circumstances most influence inequality in access to opportunities and for tracking changes over time.

Policy Implications

• The HOI can serve as a monitoring tool for equality of opportunities as Pakistan moves towards decentralization.
• The 18th Amendment presents both opportunities and risks for improving or worsening equality of opportunities.
• Future surveys should capture service quality and utilization to better understand the full extent of opportunity inequality.
• The paper suggests that sectoral experts should analyze how policies and programs influence HOI trends, which is outside the scope of this paper.

Methodology

• The HOI is calculated using logit models to predict coverage rates based on circumstances.
• Shapley decomposition is used to break down the penalty and understand the relative contribution of each circumstance to inequality.
• The results are presented in separate tables for each province and sub-region, with Karachi and Other Sindh being treated separately due to its distinctive impact on overall results.

Conclusion

• The HOI is a useful tool for measuring inequality of opportunities for children, especially in education, health, and infrastructure.
• It highlights the importance of circumstances such as gender, location, and income in determining access to opportunities.
• The paper recommends continued monitoring using the HOI to ensure equality of opportunities is maintained as Pakistan undergoes decentralization.