2012年-世界发展银行全球_Human_Opportunity_Index_-_National___Equality_of_Childrens_Opportunities_in_Pakistan_26页_2mb

Summary of the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) – National Equality of Children's Opportunities in Pakistan

Core Content

This paper introduces the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) as a new metric to assess the national equality of children's opportunities in Pakistan, focusing on access to basic services and goods that enhance children's potential. The index is designed to capture both the coverage of these opportunities and the inequality in their distribution across different circumstances such as gender, location, and economic background.

The paper uses data from the 1998-99 and 2007-08 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) surveys to analyze changes in opportunity equality over a decade. It also compares Pakistan's progress with that of other countries in Latin America and Africa to provide a broader context for understanding the implications of the HOI results.

Main Points

• HOI Definition: The HOI measures how far a society is from providing universal access to opportunities, while also accounting for the unequal distribution of these opportunities. It combines the overall coverage rate (C) with a penalty (P) for inequality, calculated as:
  $$
  \mathrm{H O I} = \mathrm{C} (1 - \mathrm{D})
  $$
  where D is the Dissimilarity Index, reflecting the degree to which access to opportunities is unevenly distributed.

• Focus on Children: The analysis focuses on children because they are more vulnerable and less capable of influencing their access to opportunities. Indicators such as school enrollment, completion rates, immunization, and basic infrastructure access are used to measure these opportunities.

• Key Opportunities Analyzed:

  • Education: Enrollment of children aged 6-10, 11-15, primary completion among 15-19 year olds, and secondary completion among 20-24 year olds.
  • Health: Diarrhea incidence, immunization (ever, full, and as recorded on health cards), and prenatal/postnatal care.
  • Basic Infrastructure: Access to improved sanitation, improved water, electricity, gas, and telephone.

• Circumstances Considered:

  • Gender
  • Urban/rural status
  • Household size
  • Real per capita consumption
  • Education level of the household head
  • Regional dummies (Sindh, Karachi, KP, Balochistan)

• Results Overview:

  • Education: There was a statistically significant improvement in coverage and HOI for both enrollment and completion rates. However, the penalty for inequality in primary enrollment decreased, while it remained unchanged for secondary enrollment and completion.
  • Health: While immunization rates improved, the penalty for inequality in full immunization was not statistically significant. The incidence of diarrhea remained low and unchanged, indicating little inequality in this health indicator.
  • Basic Infrastructure: There was significant improvement in coverage and equality, with the HOI level being higher than African countries and comparable to Latin America.

• Implications of Results:

  • The improvement in education suggests that government efforts to promote primary education have been successful in reducing inequality.
  • The low level of health care access at the time of the study indicates that significant challenges remain, especially in maternal health and birth-related care.
  • The increase in inequality for some indicators despite improved coverage highlights the complexity of ensuring equal access to opportunities, particularly when behavioral change is required from families.

Key Findings

• HOI as a Tool: The HOI is a useful and intuitive tool for monitoring changes in opportunity equality over time and across regions.
• Future Use: The approach can be used with future household surveys to track how opportunity equality evolves in Pakistan, especially as the 18th Amendment transfers more responsibilities to the provinces.
• Limitations and Future Work:
  • The current analysis is preliminary and does not examine the impact of policies on opportunity inequality.
  • The index could be enhanced by considering service quality and more detailed indicators at the provincial and district levels.
  • The use of more granular data from surveys like MICS could improve the analysis.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the HOI is a valuable framework for understanding the distribution of opportunities among children in Pakistan. It suggests that the index can be used to monitor progress and identify areas needing intervention, especially as the country undergoes decentralization. The results indicate that while some progress has been made, inequality remains a challenge, particularly in health and education completion. Continued data collection and analysis are necessary to ensure greater equality of opportunity for all children in Pakistan.