2000年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Tajikistan___Poverty_Assessment_158页_11mb

Republic of Tajikistan Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, conducted in November 1999, presents a comprehensive poverty assessment of the Republic of Tajikistan, highlighting the extent, causes, and implications of poverty across various sectors. It outlines a strategic framework for poverty reduction, emphasizing the need for economic growth, improved social services, targeted assistance, and better governance.

Main Points

1. Poverty Overview

• Poverty is a central development issue in Tajikistan, with the country among the poorest in the world.
• Estimated per capita GNP in 1997 was no more than $330.
• Poverty is not new; it was exacerbated by the civil conflict in the early 1990s.
• With the cessation of violence and economic growth resuming since 1997, significant progress in poverty reduction is possible.

2. Poverty Measurement

• The Tajikistan Living Standards Survey (TLSS) is the primary data source.
• Poverty is defined as multi-dimensional, including lack of clothing, food shortages, low salaries, pensions, and land/livestock.
• Key poverty measures:
  • 96% of the population is below the minimum consumption line.
  • 83% of the population is considered poor based on the State Statistical Agency's poverty line.
  • 17% are extremely poor (below $1.075 PPP per day).

3. Demographic and Geographic Dimensions of Poverty

• Poverty is widespread, with over half of households not eating meat, 61% not eating eggs, and 85% not eating confectionery in the week before the survey.
• High vulnerability among children, especially street and institutionalized children.
• Poverty rates are highest among the elderly, particularly single and disabled pensioners.
• Education level is inversely related to poverty risk; those with no education are more than two and a half times more likely to be in the poorest quintile.
• Rural areas are more impoverished than urban areas, even when accounting for economies of scale.

4. Coping Strategies

• 72% of households rely on food grown by themselves.
• One-third of households incur debt to buy food.
• Many households reduce meal portions or sell assets to cope with financial hardship.
• Food insecurity is a major issue, with over half of households not eating meat and nearly 60% not eating eggs in the week before the survey.

5. Labor Market and Poverty

• 56% of the population participates in the labor force, which is low compared to other FSU republics.
• Men aged 30-54 have the highest labor force participation (90%).
• Unemployment is high, with 33% when hidden unemployment is included.
• Average wage is less than one-third of the subsistence minimum.
• The public sector dominates the formal economy, but it is shrinking due to resource constraints.
• Private sector is underdeveloped, with most activities in informal family businesses and street trade.

6. Employment Strategy Recommendations

• Stimulate labor-intensive economic growth.
• Improve conditions for private business.
• Address wage arrears and ensure compliance with employment contracts.
• Develop a policy monitoring and evaluation unit in the Ministry of Labor and the Institute of Labor.
• Publish an annual labor market report to enhance transparency.

7. Agriculture and Poverty

• Agriculture is vital to the economy and the livelihood of the majority.
• It contributes 30-40% of GDP, over 30% of export revenues, and 30-40% of government tax revenues.
• Land reform is a critical component, with the privatization of 120 state farms between 1995 and mid-1999.
• Land privatization continues, with 160 kolkozes to be converted to private dekhan farms by March 2000.
• The World Bank supports the process through the Farm Privatization Support Project (FPSP).
• Land access is a key issue, with many households having limited access to arable land and irrigation.

8. Agricultural Strategy Recommendations

• Ensure equitable distribution of land access for rural households.
• Provide legal protection for land use rights.
• Offer comprehensive information on land rights and farm management systems.
• Promote participatory consultation in land stakeholder decision-making.
• Allow flexibility in farm management arrangements (individual, collective, mixed).
• Introduce applied research and advisory services to support small-scale farming.
• Review the status of 200 state-designated farms for potential privatization.

9. Education and Poverty

• Education spending is low, with the state budget allocating minimal funds.
• Net enrollment rates in basic education are low, especially in rural areas.
• Poverty affects school attendance, with higher rates of absence among poor households.
• Gender gap in education is significant, with women underrepresented in schooling beyond age 16.
• Education is essential for poverty alleviation and human capital development.

10. Health and Poverty

• Health services are limited, with low access to basic healthcare.
• Malnutrition and undernutrition are significant issues, particularly among children.
• Health financing is inadequate, and out-of-pocket spending is high.
• Poverty reduces access to health services, with many households unable to afford medical care.
• Health personnel salaries are low, and healthcare facilities are underdeveloped.

11. Social Protection and Poverty

• Social protection systems are underdeveloped, with limited coverage and effectiveness.
• Cash Compensation Program (CCP) has a high number of eligible beneficiaries but low uptake.
• Pensioners face significant challenges, with many not receiving benefits.
• Targeted assistance is needed for the poorest, especially those with special needs.
• A well-functioning social safety net is crucial for public support of reforms.

12. Governance and Poverty

• Poor governance exacerbates poverty through inefficiency and lack of accountability.
• Improving governance is essential for creating a safe and stable environment.
• Top-down and bottom-up measures are recommended to address governance issues.
• Policy monitoring and evaluation capacity needs to be strengthened.

Key Information

• Poverty is multi-dimensional and widespread in Tajikistan.
• Economic growth is the main mechanism for poverty reduction.
• Land reform and private sector development are critical for improving livelihoods.
• Education and health are essential for human capital and poverty alleviation.
• Social protection and governance reforms are necessary to support vulnerable groups and ensure public support for structural changes.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that a pro-poor strategy must be multi-faceted, addressing economic growth, social services, targeted assistance, and governance improvements. It also highlights the need for institutional capacity building and policy reforms to ensure sustainable poverty reduction. The TLSS and other assessments provide a strong foundation for future policy design and implementation.