2004年-世界发展银行全球_Jordan___Poverty_Assessment_Executive_Summary_Volume_1_46页_2mb

Jordan Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of poverty in Jordan from 1997 to 2002-03, focusing on the effectiveness of poverty reduction strategies and the challenges that remain. It is a collaborative effort between the Government of Jordan and the World Bank, and it utilizes the results of the Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) to provide updated poverty indicators and assessments.

Main Findings

1. Poverty Decline in Jordan

• Poverty Reduction: Poverty in Jordan declined significantly between 1997 and 2002-03, regardless of the poverty line used.
• Percentage Drop: The percentage of the population living in poverty fell by a third, from 21.3% in 1997 to 14.2% in 2002-03.
• Consumption Growth: The decline in poverty was driven by a notable increase in per-capita private consumption, which grew at 3.5% annually, outpacing income growth (0.8% annually).
• Non-Income Gains: Improvements were also observed in non-income dimensions, such as a 41% reduction in illiteracy and a potential 30% decline in infant and child mortality among the poor.

2. Sustainability Concerns

• GDP Growth: To sustain the current pace of poverty reduction, GDP growth needs to accelerate to at least 6% annually, and per capita growth to about 3.5%.
• Regional Disparities: Poverty reduction has been uneven across governorates, with some areas (Balqa, Karak, and Aqaba) showing no change, and Zarqa experiencing an increase in poverty.
• Leakage in Social Programs: The Family Income Supplement (FIS) program, a key social safety net, suffers from high leakage, with two-thirds of the assistance going to non-poor households.
• Unemployment Challenges: The poor continue to face high unemployment rates, which remain a critical barrier to sustained poverty reduction.

3. Social Protection and Labor Market

• Social Safety Nets: The FIS program was launched in May 2002 to bridge the gap between real income and the poverty line, defined at JD 26 per person per month and JD 156 for a typical six-member household.
• Effectiveness: The program's effectiveness is questioned due to high leakage and the need for improved targeting.
• Labor Market Access: The poor are generally less able to access the labor market, with higher youth unemployment rates and a low working poor ratio.

4. Education and Health Gaps

• Education: The poor lag behind in education, with significant disparities in educational attainment across all stages.
• Health: Poor households experience worse health outcomes, including higher infant and child mortality rates, but bear a higher burden of health expenditures.

Key Information

• Poverty Line: The new poverty lines are more accurate and consider family composition and geographic location, reflecting updated calorie requirements and actual expenditures on non-food items.
• Geographic Poverty Map: The report provides a detailed geographic distribution of poverty at the sub-governorate level, identifying 13 out of 73 sub-districts as pockets of severe poverty.
• Policy Initiatives: Key initiatives include increasing the National Aid Fund, supporting microfinancing, and promoting employment through Cluster Village Development.
• Monitoring Systems: There is a call for the establishment of poverty monitoring systems to enable timely interventions, rather than relying on periodic surveys.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Real GDP growth rates in Jordan from 1988 to 2003.

• Figure 2: All poverty measures show a decline between 1997 and 2002.

• Figure 3: Change in headcount ratio from 1997 to 2002.

• Figure 4: Poverty severity in 2002-03.

• Figure 5: Annual growth in per capita private consumption and income.

• Figure 6: Welfare gains for all income groups.

• Figure 7: Income Supplement Program beneficiaries and assistance per family from 1996 to 2002.

• Figure 8: The leaky social safety net.

• Figure 9: Poor households have more young dependents.

• Figure 10: Youth unemployment by governorate in 2002.

• Figure 11: Working poor ratio in Jordan.

• Figure 12: Educational attainment gaps between the poor and non-poor.

• Figure 13: Infant and child mortality rates by income quintile.

• Table 1: Average total poverty line by governorate (JD per capita per year).

• Table 2: Poverty projections to 2006.

• Table 3: Poverty rates by economic activity status in 1997 and 2002.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of continued policy reforms, particularly in addressing regional imbalances, improving access to education and health, and enhancing the effectiveness of social protection programs. It also highlights the need for more accurate and timely poverty monitoring systems to ensure that poverty reduction efforts are effective and sustainable.