2007年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of__Yemen_-_Poverty_Assessment_112页_1mb

报告摘要

Yemen Poverty Assessment Summary (2007)

Core Content

This report, conducted by the Government of Yemen, the World Bank, and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty in Yemen between 1998 and 2005/06. It evaluates the impact of economic growth and reforms, the role of public and private transfers in poverty alleviation, and the effectiveness of poverty monitoring systems. The report also includes policy recommendations aimed at further reducing poverty in Yemen.

Main Report Overview

I. Introduction

Yemen, once known as "Arabia Felix," is now the most impoverished Arab country.
The report assesses poverty in 2005/06 and compares it with 1998 data.
It evaluates the role of growth and reforms, identifies better ways to target the poor, and reviews the poverty monitoring system.
The goal is to equip policymakers and development partners with insights to improve poverty reduction efforts.

II. Evolution of Poverty

Poverty Declined: The headcount ratio of the poor decreased from 40.1% in 1998 to 34.8% in 2005/06.
Urban Areas Showed Greater Improvement: Urban poverty declined from 32.2% to 20.7%, despite rising urbanization.
Rural Poverty Decline Was Inconsistent: The rural poverty rate decreased from 42.4% to 40.1%, but this was not robust to alternative poverty line definitions.
Regional Disparities: Poverty varies significantly across governorates, with Amran having the highest incidence (71%) and Al-Maharah and Sana'a City the lowest (around 5%).
Poverty Depth and Severity: The poverty gap index and severity index showed greater declines, indicating that the ultra-poor benefited more than the average poor.

III. Changes in Key Characteristics of the Poor

Education: Poor households have improved educational attainment, and illiterate-headed households have seen a marginal decline in poverty incidence.
Health Expenditure: Poor families spend less on health as a proportion of total expenditure, and out-of-pocket payments have increased.
Child Malnutrition: Severe stunting and underweight are prevalent among poor children, especially in rural areas.
Gender Differences: Female-headed households have similar poverty rates to male-headed households, but they allocate resources more efficiently for welfare and future needs.
Poverty Risk Among Female-Headed Households: Households with disabled spouses or absent male heads face higher poverty risk. Single women who have never married have the lowest risk at 7%.

IV. Impact of Growth and Reforms on Poverty and Unemployment

Oil-Driven Growth: Economic growth between 1998 and 2005/06 was largely driven by oil, but the oil sector did not create significant employment opportunities for the poor.
Tariff Cuts: Had minimal direct impact on the poor, as Yemen lacked a strong industrial base.
Currency Depreciation: The depreciation of the Yemeni Rial (41%) contributed to the cost of living increase, but also improved incentives for export sectors.
Unemployment Rise: Unemployment increased from 13.7% in 1999 to 16.3% in 2004, especially among the poor and women.
Youth Unemployment: Remained high at 28.3%, compared to the general population.
Gender and Unemployment: Female unemployment increased significantly, with a 3:1 male-to-female unemployment ratio in urban areas.

V. Social Spending and Poverty

Social Spending Declined: Social spending fell to 7% of GDP in 2006, down from 8.6% in 2003.
Health Spending: Only 2% of GDP, with petroleum subsidies exceeding total social spending.
Education Spending: While equally distributed across income groups, it became more unequal at higher educational levels.
Immunization Coverage: Improved significantly, with nearly 100% coverage for polio, but measles immunization coverage remains below MDG targets.

Key Findings

Poverty Reduction: Poverty declined, but the pace was slow compared to MDG goals.
Urban-Rural Disparity: Urban areas experienced more significant poverty reduction than rural areas.
Inequality: The poverty gap and severity indices indicate that the ultra-poor benefited more from reforms.
Policy Gaps: The Social Welfare Fund (SWF) is inadequate in targeting the food-poor, as its benefit ceiling is lower than the poverty gap.
Unemployment Challenges: Despite poverty reduction, unemployment, especially among women and youth, increased.

Policy Recommendations

Enhance Social Spending: Increase social spending, particularly on health and education, to meet MDG targets.
Improve Targeting Mechanisms: Develop more effective targeting of the poor, especially in rural areas.
Strengthen Poverty Monitoring: Implement a robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system for poverty reduction.
Promote Pro-Poor Growth: Ensure that economic growth benefits the poor, especially through policies that support employment and reduce inequality.
Address Gender and Youth Unemployment: Create targeted policies to reduce unemployment among women and youth.

Key Acronyms and Abbreviations

AIDS: Almost Ideal Demand System
CSO: Central Statistics Organization
DPPR: Development Plan for Poverty Reduction
EFARP: Economic, Financial and Administrative Reform Plan
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GST: General Sales Tax
HBS: Household Budget Survey
MDG: Millennium Development Goals
MENA: Middle East and North Africa
MOHPH: Ministry of Public Health and Population
MOPIC: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation
MTEF: Medium Term Economic Framework
NGO: Non Government Organization
PRSP: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PWP: Public Works Project
SAM: Social Accounting Matrix
SFD: Social Fund for Development
SWF: Social Welfare Fund
TFYP: Third Five Year Plan
TVET: Technical and Vocational Training
UNDP: United Nations Development Project
UNICEF: United Nations Children Fund
YR: Yemeni Rial

Tables and Figures

Table 1.1: Compares new and old poverty lines in current prices.
Table 1.2: Estimated poverty lines for 2005/06 by governorate.
Table 1.3: Governorates by regions.
Table 1.4: Poverty measurements by governorate for 2005-06.
Table 1.5: Changes in poverty measures from 1998 to 2005/06.
Table 1.6: Poverty rate, growth, and redistribution decomposition by regions.
Table 1.7: Educational attainment for the poor and non-poor by urban-rural status.
Table 1.8: Assisted delivery by expenditure quintile.
Table 1.9: Prevalence of severe malnutrition.
Table 1.10: Immunization coverage by expenditure quintile.
Table 1.11: Gender, marital status, and poverty incidence.
Table 1.12: Labor force participation and unemployment.
Table 1.13: Regression analysis for determinants of poverty.
Table 2.1: Inequality remained the same or worsened in rural areas.
Table 2.2: Pro-poor index.
Table 2.3: SAM tool for analyzing Yemen's national accounts.
Table 2.4: Pro-poor growth can be achieved in different ways.
Table 3.1: Impact of transfers on poverty in Yemen, 2005.
Table 3.2: Poverty and safety net programs in Yemen.
Table 3.3: Geographic targeting of SWF.
Table 3.4: Distribution of food-poor.
Table 3.5: Percentage of population receiving SWF transfers by expenditure deciles.
Table 4.1-4.5: Best practices in M&E strategy development, donor harmonization, and poverty monitoring.

Conclusion

The report highlights the complexity of poverty in Yemen, emphasizing the need for more targeted and inclusive policies. While poverty has declined, the pace is insufficient to meet international targets, and unemployment remains a significant challenge, particularly among women and youth. The role of public and private transfers, along with the need for a robust monitoring system, is critical for future poverty reduction efforts.

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