2003年-世界发展银行全球_Timor-Leste_Poverty_Assessment___Poverty_in_a_New_Nation_-_Analysis_for_Action_Volume_1_Main_Report_158页_11mb

Timor-Leste Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Timor-Leste Poverty Assessment, is a comprehensive analysis of poverty in the newly independent nation of Timor-Leste, conducted in 2001 and finalized in 2003. It provides a baseline for the Government's Poverty Reduction Strategy and outlines the challenges and opportunities for reducing poverty and promoting economic growth.

Main Report Objectives

• To establish a baseline on the extent, nature, and dimensions of poverty in Timor-Leste.
• To support the newly elected government in formulating, implementing, and monitoring its National Development Plan (NDP).
• To identify key areas for policy intervention based on empirical data and analysis.

Key Findings

1. Poverty Overview

• Poverty Rate: Approximately 40% of the population is poor.
• Rural vs. Urban: Poverty is predominantly rural, with higher rates in the western districts (Oecussi, Bobonaro, Covalima) than in the eastern ones (Baucau, Lautem, Viqueque).
• Demographics: Larger households, those with a higher proportion of children and elderly, are more likely to be poor.
• Education: Better education is associated with lower poverty levels. Households where the head has not completed primary education have a poverty rate of nearly 50%, compared to less than 15% for those with senior secondary education.
• Assets: Larger land size and livestock holdings are linked to lower poverty. The non-poor have more land and livestock than the poor.
• Infrastructure Access: Access to infrastructure such as electricity, sanitation, and safe drinking water is uneven, with urban areas having better access than rural ones.

2. Economic and Social Trends

• Post-Independence Recovery: After the violence of 1999, the country began rebuilding with support from UN agencies, the international donor community, and NGOs.
• Economic Progress: Significant progress has been made in economic rehabilitation, infrastructure reconstruction, and refugee reintegration.
• Empowerment: In 2001, the population felt more empowered than during Indonesian rule, with a notable improvement in economic well-being for the poorest third of the population.

3. Employment and Poverty

• Rural Employment: Agriculture is the main employer, accounting for 80% of employment in rural areas, but it contributes only 25% to non-oil GDP due to low productivity.
• Urban Labor Market: Urban areas, especially Dili and Baucau, face high unemployment and high wages. Unemployment rates are particularly high among youth (43%) and drop with age.
• Productivity Drivers: Low productivity in agriculture is attributed to limited use of inputs, poor land quality, and inadequate market access.
• Private Sector: The service sector boomed during the transition to independence due to expatriate inflow, but it is expected to shrink, leading to downward pressure on wages.

4. Basic Social Services

• Government Spending: In 2002, government spending on education was $19 per capita, and on health was $7 per capita. These are higher than most low-income countries but lower than middle-income ones.
• Education: The NDP prioritizes primary and secondary education and primary health care, including immunization and public health initiatives.
• Health: Health indicators show a need for improvement, with low access to health facilities and high rates of unmet health needs.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Promote Economic Participation: Create an enabling environment for private sector development, improve productivity in agriculture and informal sectors, and diversify rural livelihoods.
• Improve Access to Infrastructure: Focus on providing electricity, sanitation, and safe drinking water, especially in rural areas.
• Enhance Basic Social Services: Increase public spending on education and health, and improve the quality and accessibility of these services.
• Empower the Poor: Implement policies that reduce vulnerability to shocks, improve food security, and increase the economic empowerment of disadvantaged groups.

Key Information

Data Sources

• Timor-Leste Living Standards Measurement Survey (TLSS): A nationally representative survey of 1800 households.
• Suco Survey: A census of all 498 sucos, providing data on social and physical infrastructure.
• Participatory Potential Assessment (PPA): A qualitative survey of 48 aldeias to assess community strengths and challenges.
• Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS): Conducted by UNICEF, providing data on child welfare and health indicators.

Key Institutions Involved

• Government of Timor-Leste (Ministry of Planning and Finance)
• World Bank
• Asian Development Bank (ADB)
• Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
• United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
• United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
• United Nations Mission of Support in East Timor (UNMISET)

Team Members

• Supervisors and Enumerators: A list of 50 individuals involved in the data collection and survey implementation.
• Data Entry and Administration: Several team members were responsible for data entry and field administration.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of a multi-faceted approach to poverty reduction in Timor-Leste, emphasizing the need for improved economic opportunities, access to basic social services, and enhanced security and empowerment for the poor. It serves as a critical reference for the Government's Poverty Reduction Strategy and highlights the need for continued analysis and policy refinement to achieve long-term development goals.