2009年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan___Poverty_Assessment_132页_1mb

Tajikistan Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty in Tajikistan, using the most recent data from the Tajikistan Living Standards Survey (TLSS) 2007. It outlines the dynamics of poverty, its profile, the role of the domestic labor market and migration, the state of social protection, education, and health, and discusses the potential impact of the global financial crisis on poverty levels.

Main Points

A. Poverty Dynamics

• Economic Growth: Tajikistan experienced impressive economic growth between 2003 and 2007, with real per capita GDP increasing by 26.5 percent.
• Consumption Growth: Real per capita consumption increased significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 7.5 percent. Urban areas grew faster than rural areas.
• Poverty Reduction: The poverty headcount declined from 64 percent in 2003 to 41 percent in 2007 using the PPP $2.15 per day poverty line. Absolute poverty declined from 72 percent to 53 percent.
• Migration and Remittances: Migration and remittances played a crucial role in poverty reduction, contributing to welfare improvements. However, the financial crisis could reverse these gains, leading to increased poverty and inequality.
• Poverty Elasticity: A 1 percent increase in per capita consumption led to a 1 percent decrease in the poverty headcount.

B. Poverty Profile

• Poverty Concentration: Poverty is concentrated in rural areas, with 75.7 percent of the poor living in rural regions.
• Dependency Ratio: High fertility rates and low female labor participation contribute to a high household dependency ratio, which is the highest in the ECA region.
• Education and Poverty: Households with more educated heads have significantly lower poverty rates. Those with a basic or lower level of education face a higher risk of poverty.
• Poverty Clustering: There is a noticeable clustering of the population around the poverty line, making the population sensitive to changes in purchasing power.
• Food Insecurity: Many households, especially those in the lower quintile, face food insecurity. Seasonality affects food security, with the worst shortages occurring in late winter-early spring.

C. Domestic Labor Market

• Labor Force Participation: The labor force participation rate is 52 percent, significantly lower than the ECA average. Women's participation is particularly low at 36 percent.
• Employment Distribution: Agriculture accounts for 45 percent of total employment, followed by services and commerce at 30 percent. Low labor earnings and informal employment are common.
• Working Poor: Half of the employed in the domestic labor market are poor, with 80 percent of the working poor living in rural areas. Low wages and high prevalence of temporary and informal work arrangements are major contributors to this situation.

D. Migration

• Migration Trends: Migration, especially to Russia, has become a key strategy for households to cope with poverty. About 25 percent of households have at least one migrant.
• Remittances: Remittances account for 35 percent of household consumption in households with migrants and are a major source of income for the poor.
• Impact of Financial Crisis: A reduction in remittances and employment abroad is expected to increase poverty levels, with rural areas being more affected.

E. Social Protection

• Current System: The social protection system is weak and dominated by old-age and disability pensions. Social assistance spending is only 0.5 percent of GDP.
• Poverty Impact: The current SP system has a marginal impact on poverty reduction, reducing the poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points.
• Recommendation: A new, unified social assistance program offering poverty-targeted cash transfers could improve the effectiveness of the SP system.

F. Education

• Public and Private Expenditure: Education expenditure is low, and the quality of school facilities is poor and highly unequal across geographic areas.
• Enrollment and Fees: Enrollment rates are generally low, and tuition fees are prevalent in general education, disadvantaging poorer households.
• Reforms: Some positive reforms are occurring, particularly in financing and incentives, but more needs to be done to improve access and quality.

G. Health

• Health System Issues: The health system is underdeveloped, with inadequate medical infrastructure and high out-of-pocket payments.
• Access to Health Care: Access to health care is limited, especially in rural areas, and the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases is a concern.
• Nutrition and Sanitation: Poor nutrition and lack of access to clean water and sanitation are significant issues.
• Reforms: Some good reforms are taking place, especially in financing and incentives, but more is needed to improve health outcomes.

Key Information

• Currency: 1 US$ = 4.35 Somoni (TJS)
• Poverty Line: PPP $2.15 per day (absolute poverty line)
• Population: 7 million (2007)
• Working-Age Population: 4.2 million
• Labor Force Participation: 52 percent (47 percent of working-age population employed)
• Unemployment Rate: 9.5 percent
• Poverty Headcount (2007): 53 percent (absolute), 17 percent (extreme)
• Migration: 96 percent of migrants go to Russia, mostly working in construction
• Remittances (2007): US$1.4 billion, or 40 percent of GDP
• Social Assistance Spending: 0.5 percent of GDP
• Education and Health Reforms: Some positive changes are occurring, but more is needed to address systemic issues

Conclusion

Tajikistan has made significant progress in poverty reduction between 2003 and 2007, largely due to economic growth and increased migration and remittances. However, the country remains highly vulnerable to economic shocks, particularly those affecting remittances and employment. The current social protection system is inadequate, and there are significant challenges in the education and health sectors. Addressing these issues will be essential for sustained poverty reduction and improved living standards.