战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-Update_-The-Train-to-Europe-Stalls_5页_264kb

TURKEY UPDATE Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the European Union (EU) and Turkey's relationship in late 2006, focusing on the stalled EU accession process and its implications for both Turkey's domestic politics and international standing. It highlights the EU's decision to suspend negotiations on eight of the 34 remaining chapters, while keeping the door open for future discussions, and the Turkish government's response to this decision.

Main Points

• EU Summit Decision: The December 2006 EU summit formally suspended negotiations on eight chapters, signaling a slowdown in Turkey's EU accession process. This decision was linked to Turkey's refusal to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot ships and aircraft unless the EU eased the embargo on Turkish Cypriots.

• EU-Turkey Tensions: The EU's decision was interpreted as a way to avoid a "train crash," but it has also tied the EU accession process more closely to the Cyprus issue than ever before. Turkey's government and its supporters in the EU, including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, are attempting to downplay the negative implications of the decision.

• Domestic Impact on Turkey: The stalling of the EU process has created internal political tensions in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party (JDP) government, which had relied heavily on the EU accession as a unifying factor, now faces challenges in maintaining public support and reform momentum. The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in 2007 add to the uncertainty.

• Economic Considerations: The EU accession process had been a key driver of Turkey's economic recovery, attracting foreign investment and improving its economic performance. However, the recent stalling may lead to economic risks, despite the lack of an immediate market reaction.

• Political Dynamics in Turkey: The Turkish government is under pressure from both domestic and international actors. The JDP's strategy is to maintain a low-level engagement with the EU during 2007, hoping to resume negotiations after a successful election cycle. However, the internal political climate, including the "Cankaya war" over the presidential election, suggests a more turbulent path.

• Role of the Turkish Military: The Turkish Chief of Staff, General Yasar Buyukanit, criticized the government for not consulting the military on its last-minute offer to open two ports to Greek Cypriot ships. This highlights the growing influence of the military in domestic political affairs.

• International Implications: The US, which has historically supported Turkish EU membership, remains a key player in the region. The US government, both under the Bush administration and the incoming Democratic leadership, is expected to address the implications of Turkey's alienation from the EU, especially given the strategic importance of Turkey and the potential for internal instability.

Key Information

• The EU has not suspended all negotiations but has paused eight chapters, signaling a cautious approach.
• Turkey's position on the Cyprus issue has become a central obstacle in its EU accession.
• The JDP government is balancing EU demands with domestic political needs, particularly in the run-up to elections.
• The Turkish military has become more vocal in recent years, indicating a potential shift in the balance of power.
• The US continues to support Turkey's EU membership despite the recent tensions, and Turkey is actively seeking to maintain its presence on the American agenda.
• The economic recovery of Turkey is closely tied to its EU accession process, and any disruption may have negative consequences.

Conclusion

The EU-Turkey accession process has entered a critical phase, with the EU's decision to suspend negotiations on eight chapters marking a significant setback. This move has not only intensified the Cyprus issue but also created internal political and economic challenges for Turkey. The JDP government's strategy to navigate this impasse while preparing for elections remains uncertain, and the role of the military and the potential for internal strife are growing concerns. Meanwhile, the US continues to play a crucial role in maintaining the relationship, highlighting the strategic importance of Turkey in the broader international context.