战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-Update_-Turkey-after-Welfare_3页_104kb

Summary of "Turkey after Welfare"

Core Content

The document discusses the political consequences of the banning of the Islamist Welfare Party (WP) in Turkey, which was finalized in February 1997. The closure was a result of the party's perceived threat to the secular nature of the Turkish state and followed a period of political instability that began with Erbakan's decision to form a coalition with Tansu Ciller and the True Path Party (TPP) in 1996. Despite the closure, the political uncertainty in Turkey persists, as the Islamist movement continues to gain support and the secular establishment struggles to contain it.

Main Points

• Closure of the Welfare Party: The WP was banned by the Constitutional Court in February 1997, following a long period of speculation and political pressure. The decision was justified on the grounds that the party posed a grave danger to the secular state.
• Political Instability: The closure did not resolve the political turmoil, as the WP's influence had already significantly increased in the polls.
• Rise of the Islamist Movement: The WP, which was the third Islamist party to be banned in Turkey, had grown rapidly in popularity over the years, with its vote share increasing from 4.4% in 1984 to 21.4% in 1995.
• Formation of the Virtue Party (VP): Most WP parliamentarians joined the newly formed VP, which is seen as the successor to the WP and is expected to continue the Islamist political agenda.
• Secularist Response: The secularist forces, which had hoped the closure of the WP would weaken the Islamist movement, have not succeeded in doing so. The VP is poised to take over the political space previously occupied by the WP.
• Military's Role: The Turkish military remains a key player in the political landscape, viewing political Islam as a threat. However, it is also beginning to question the effectiveness of its previous actions in curbing the movement.
• Yilmaz Government's Weakness: The government led by Mesut Yilmaz, which came to power as a civilian alternative to the WP-TPP coalition, has shown little effectiveness. It has failed to address key issues such as high inflation, corruption, and income inequality.
• Speculation on Early Elections: There is growing speculation that early elections may be called, but the lack of a clear alternative and the military's continued influence make this uncertain.
• Military's Strategy: The military is reportedly considering replacing the current coalition with a "government of technocrats" to address economic issues and suppress the Islamist movement.
• Shift in Political Dynamics: The political landscape is shifting, with the secular parties still divided and the military increasingly frustrated with the current government's performance.

Key Information

• Erbakan's Mistakes: Erbakan's decision to form a coalition with Ciller and his controversial statements and actions contributed to the downfall of the WP.
• Electoral Growth of the WP: The WP's vote share increased significantly over a decade, indicating strong public support for Islamist ideas.
• Virtue Party's Prospects: The VP is expected to continue the political momentum of the WP, with potential leadership struggles between the old guard and younger figures like Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• Yilmaz's Leadership: Yilmaz is perceived as ineffective and his government's economic policies have failed to address the country's problems.
• Military's Concerns: The military is concerned about the rise of political Islam and is considering drastic measures to restore stability.
• EU and Domestic Politics: The rejection of Turkey's EU accession bid and the country's growing nationalist sentiment have complicated the secularist approach to dealing with the Islamist movement.

Conclusion

The closure of the Welfare Party has not resolved the underlying political tensions in Turkey. The Islamist movement continues to gain strength, and the secular establishment is struggling to counter it effectively. The Yilmaz government, while a civilian alternative, has shown little capacity to address the country's pressing issues. The military, which has historically played a significant role in Turkish politics, is now considering more radical solutions to restore stability and control over the political landscape.